Russian forces continued strikes along the line of contact but made no confirmed ground assaults on the Southern Axis on July 20. Air bombardment with missiles continues as population density matters.
Key Takeaways
- The current Russian offensive will likely make marginal territorial gains northeast of the E40 highway in Donetsk before culminating along the E40.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia is pursuing expanded territorial gains in Ukraine beyond Luhansk and Donetsk Oblast, confirming ISW’s assessment that the Kremlin seeks to capture territory beyond Donbas.
- Russian forces resumed limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and around the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area.
- Russian forces continued localized ground assaults east of Siversk and made marginal gains northeast of Bakhmut.
- Ukrainian forces conducted the second consecutive high-precision strike against the Antonivskyi Bridge-- a major Russian logistics artery east of Kherson City.
- Russian occupation authorities are likely propagandizing recent Ukrainian high-precision strikes and partisan activity to set conditions for mass deportations of Ukrainian citizens to Russian territory.
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces attempted a limited ground offensive north of Kharkiv City on July 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground assault towards Pytomnyk, 10km north of Kharkiv City.[21] Russian forces continued shelling Kharkiv City and the surrounding settlements, including Pytomnyk, Prudyanka, Petrivka, and Tsyrkuny.[22]
understandingwar.org/...
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces resumed localized ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border on July 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Bohorodychne, about 20km northwest of Slovyansk.[9] This is the first confirmed ground attack along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border since July 15.[10] Russian forces also continued to fire on the settlements of Dolyna, Krasnopillya, and Adamivka, all northwest of Slovyansk near the E40 highway.[11] Donetsk Oblast Head Pavlo Kyrylenko noted that Russian forces have intensified direct shelling of Slovyansk, likely in advance of attempts to move directly on the city along the E40.[12]
Russian forces continued limited ground assaults east of Siversk on July 20. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian troops pushed back Russian troops near Hryhorivka (northeast of Siversk) and Spirne (southeast of Siversk).[13] The Russian grouping in this area is likely still severely degraded by recent operations to complete the capture of the Luhansk Oblast administrative borders and is therefore only making slow and grinding progress towards Siversk.
Russian forces made incremental progress northeast of Bakhmut along the T1302 highway on July 20. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Territorial Defense Force claimed that joint DNR and Russian troops took control of Berestove, about 25km northeast of Bakhmut.[14] The DNR Territorial Defense Force suggested that DNR troops will use the capture of Berestove to move southwest along the T1302 towards Soledar and eventually Bakhmut.[15] Russian forces also continued to fight south of Bakhmut around Vershyna and Novoluhanske, including near the Vuhledar Power Plant.[16] Russian forces are likely setting conditions for three directions of advance on Bakhmut- from the southwest of the Berestove-Soledar line; west from Pokrovske; and north from Novoluhanske and the territory of the Vuhledar Power Plant.[17] Russian troops continued to conduct air and artillery strikes around Bakhmut along these three lines of advance.[18]
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Donetsk City and near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border on July 20. The Ukrainian General Staff noted the Russian forces conducted two failed reconnaissance-in-force attempts in Novoselivka Druha, just northeast of Avdiivka near the H20 highway that runs from Avdiivka to Kostyantynivka.[19] Russian forces reportedly also unsuccessfully attempted to advance towards Mykilsky and Novomykhailivka—both southwest of Donetsk City about 60km from the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border.[20]
understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnipro River east of Kherson City for the second day in a row on July 20.[23] Head of the Russian-backed Kherson Occupation Administration Vladimir Saldo announced that the bridge is closed to freight traffic for repairs but that it remains open to passenger vehicles.[24] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan stated that the Ukrainian strikes on the Antonivskyi Bridge have made it impossible for Russian forces to transport heavy equipment across the bridge.[25]
Russian forces continued strikes along the line of contact but made no confirmed ground assaults on the Southern Axis on July 20. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces fired 20 missiles from S-300 anti-air systems in Kherson Oblast at unspecified ground targets overnight on July 19-20.[26] Russian forces conducted air and missile strikes on Murakhivka and Novohryhorivka, Mykolaiv Oblast, and on the Pidyommyy Bridge in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast.[27]
Ukrainian partisans attacked Russian occupation personnel at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast on July 19. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that the partisan attack injured nine Russian occupation personnel and killed an unspecified number.[28] Russian-backed Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration head Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian “terrorists,” likely referring to partisans, attacked the Zaporizhzhia NPP with kamikaze UAVs, which are highly accurate and unlikely to have risked damage to the Zaporizhzhia NPP nuclear reactors.[29] If true, a UAV attack would be the most sophisticated Ukrainian partisan attack ISW has observed to date. Geolocated footage shows shrapnel but no other evidence of damage 300 meters from the Zaporizhia NPP reactors, but this footage could have been staged to incite panic and further occupation authorities’ anti-Ukrainian propaganda.[30]
understandingwar.org/...
UNROLL FOR IMAGES
The Kharkiv area: Russia shelled Kharkiv, killing a 13 year old boy, wounding his 15 year old sister, and killing a couple in their 60s who were waiting for public transport.
Russia tried to advance through Pytomnyk, which is a bit of a sprawling town, but they were repelled (1)
The Slovyansk area: Russia made their normal daily attacks into Krasnopillya (2), Dolyna (3), and Bohorodychne (4), and all were repelled.
The Siversk area: Mapping this area is difficult. There are a lot of attacks going on from both Russian and Ukrainian forces (I have decided not to map many of the Ukrainian attacks out of an abundance of caution). For this reason, I have made much of the region a gray area.
Similarly, I am not sure where exactly some of the Russian attacks are coming from. For example, the attack on Hryhorivka, are the Russians moving along the river, or more inland? Does Ukraine control the river area? I am not sure.
I have read that Russia controls the area along the river, which is how I have mapped it. I have seen a lot of evidence that Ukraine controls the southern part of Bilohorivka, which I have left as a gray area on the map.
There have been attacks towards Serebryanka, which obviously have to pass through the gray area somewhere, and also attacks towards Verkhnokamyanske. On top of all of this, Ukraine claims there are two towns in Luhansk oblast that Russia has failed to capture.
We know Bilohorivka is one, but which is the other? There are two options: Zolotarivka and Verkhnokamyanka. I have seen evidence of Ukrainian forces in Zolotarivka, so I have decided to map this town as contested. It could be the other, or maybe neither are contested.
Russians have not yet captured Bilohorivka, and they are heavily shelling the area with Grad MLRS and s300 anti-aircraft missiles (A). Russians tried to attack Hryhorivka, but they were repelled (5). There is ongoing fighting in Verkhnokamyanske (6).
There are rumors that Russia captured Ivano-Darivka (7), but I have seen no evidence to support it. I believe fighting is ongoing. Similarly, there are rumors that Russia has pushed through Spirne (8), but I have also seen contrary evidence
Ukrainian forces have abandoned Berestove after roughly 59 days of fighting (9). After a while every single structure is destroyed and you run out of things to defend, at which point Ukraine decides to pull back to another town where the process starts anew.
However, Russia still has not been able to capture the Berestove (10) due to liberal application of Ukrainian artillery.
The Bakhmut area: There is ongoing fighting in the outskirts of Soledar (11).
There is heavy ongoing fighting around Pokrovske (12,13), and some of the lesser Russian sources are claiming the town is captured, although the better sources have not made any such claim.
There is ongoing fighting around the Vuhlehirske power plant (16) and Novoluhanske (17)
The New York/Avdiivka area: Russia isn’t having much luck attacking Kamyanka, so they decided to try a recon mission 2-3km north near Novoselivka Druha, but the recon failed and they were repulsed (18).
South of Donetsk: Russia tried to attack towards Novomykhailivka again today, and they were repelled (19).
Yesterday I read that Ukraine had attacked out of Vuhledar towards Mykilske (20), but that the attack was destroyed.
I could not find confirmation, and I found it unlikely such an attack would be destroyed so I didn’t mention it. Today there is a report that Russia tried to attack Mykilske but were repelled (21). Perhaps Ukraine captured Mykilske. I will leave it marked as contested for now.
These are all the major news items for the day. There were a few HIMARS attacks, like this one. I hope I didn't forget any images or whatever this time. unroll
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