As we approach the end of summer — and the end of Hope Springs from Field PAC’s canvassing efforts (we are transitioning over to Election Protection and Ballot Curing after Labor Day) — volunteers kept asking about what is next. Not just who’s going to lead the Fall canvassing in their area (like in Pennsylvania, where we have been canvassing for over a year), but, basically, ‘are you abandoning us?’ Because i (try to — my wife has a lot of say in where i go each weekend) visit our Saturday canvassing efforts (one state at a time, of course) and often talk to our organizers through the week, we knew this was coming. I’ve canvassed with volunteers in both Tucson and Phoenix this summer (and I still don’t understand why Phoenix is consistently hotter than Tucson but) and the volunteers i have talked to liked what we were doing, loved having Democratic senators and want to ensure that continues. And i’ve had some interesting conversations with some of them about my experience in turning red areas into blue. Because they are thinking about this kind of thing.
Now there is an important caveat here (because everything depends upon funding), but look at the map. All i hear out there (the ever-present conventional wisdom) is that there are more Democratic seats to defend (like Republicans have this year) next cycle and isn’t that just scary! Montana. Nevada. Arizona. West Virginia. Ohio. Pennsylvania. What opportunities are there to steal a seat with this map?
Now we have to wait to see who retires or runs for higher office next time to answer that question. We only know that it’s the cycle where Democrats are defending a lot of seats, mostly in traditionally blue states. But compare the senate map with the Electoral College map. A Southern strategy pops out at you! Nevada requires work. Arizona, too. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina — wait, haven’t we been canvassing there, too? Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin; yep, there, too! Lots of two-fers out there, including Arizona.
Arizona is a swing state, doubly so next cycle. Even more so if progressives get their wish and wage a serious challenge against Sinema. So Hope Springs from Field should be repeating this system of Deep Organizing, knocking on doors with an Issues Survey, Constituent Service Request forms, Voter Registration forms as well as Incident Reports, Q-slips and Observations forms next spring. We aren’t planning on going away, even though next year requires a big step up organizing at the backend as well. Knocking on doors “year round” (sorta) has benefits that feed into what I call “preparing the battle space.” Not only are we registering voters, and updating voter addresses that had an added benefit this cycle (people could sign up for the Active Early Voting List), but we are also finding addresses that needed to be updated in our voter file (VAN). Volunteers who canvass this fall will benefit from that as well (not to mention the campaigns, who will make more effective use of their volunteer’s time).
And even as we concede door knocking to the Senate campaign, there are lots of volunteer opportunities in your area to be found at mobilize.us . I know that i will repeat this a lot, but mobilize.us is a central volunteer hub for Democrats. Just like VAN, mobilize.us is a Democratic solution to a common problem. And we need to get familiar with it now because there is a lot of work left to do!
Arizona began the year as a top target for Republicans. There has been this strange belief, often tied to the profound disappointment of losing the state in the Electoral College, that Mark Kelly was vulnerable. But if you thought Republicans and conservatives thought Kelly was a fluke, they think there is no way Joe Biden could have beaten TFG there. The point of Deep Organizing is to make it as easy as possible for Democrats to have success in the upcoming elections. We just can’t stop.
I tell you this because there is still a lot at stake in Arizona this Fall. Yes, things are looking up for Mark Kelly but there isn’t a single Democrat who doesn’t think that the Gubernatorial and Secretary of State elections (among others) aren’t really important, too. This election isn’t over and we have to finish the job. “Run through the tape” one of our volunteers said. We have definitely laid the ground for it.
471 volunteers came out to knock on doors with Hope Springs from Field PAC in the western suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson on Saturday for what is likely to be our last canvass this year. From the beginning, we have been focused on AZ-01 and AZ-06, the lightly red congressional districts to the east of the two metropolitan areas. Jevin Hodge is the Democratic candidate running against GOP incumbent David Schweikert in AZ-01 and Kirsten Engel is the Democratic candidate to replace Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick in the heavily re-districted AZ-06.
Like prior weeks, we had to modify our canvassing routine, which means we started earlier and used drivers to protect our volunteer canvassers. We want a driver/supervisor to have eyes on each volunteer every 20-30 minutes or so. And when volunteers get too hot, they jump into the vehicle and join the watch on the other members of the team. We also know to cut turf in smaller segments than we would in the fall or spring. But a Heat Wave is a heat wave, which is why I am so appreciative for those who do come out, especially in that temperature. (An Excessive Heat Warning is another thing altogether, and we won’t knock on doors in those conditions.)
But I do want to emphasize that there are repeated opportunities to cool off for volunteers knocking on doors, and to do some paperwork in an air-conditioned vehicle. With lots of cold water, baby wipes, cooling towels and an air-conditioned vehicle, our canvassers are safe, looked-after and don't look haggard when they knock on doors. We also suggest that people bring a change of shirts and I even have drivers that create "privacy environments" in their SUVs for changing into dryer clothes. Again, it really makes our volunteers feel valued. Volunteers are golden. Volunteers are everything.
We asked voters who open their doors if they were registered to vote at their current address. And we note that one of the benefits for those who are not currently registered at their current address is that the new Arizona voter registration form allows you to sign up for the Active Early Voting List to receive their early ballot by mail. This does encourage voters to update their voter registrations. It’s the little things — but it’s not valid for today’s election! To be honest, we had people update their voter registrations for this alone.
We canvass with an Issues Questionnaire that allows voters to tell us what is on their minds. We use it as a conversational check to guide volunteers through their dialog at the door. It makes it easy on our volunteers as provides us with vital data that will be entered in VAN (the Democratic database) after the primary. But this is why our very first priority in these Senate Swing State canvasses is making sure that everyone in the houses that opened their doors is registered to vote at their current address.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First Round of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
We ask voters whether they have a primary issue concern. What we are looking for is to determine whether they are “single issue” voters. We use open-ended questions because we are really looking for quick, immediate responses. People know what issues they will be voting on, and if they can’t think of any, that doesn’t defeat the purpose. This week, The Economy was the top issue we heard from voters in Arizona (and we get comments about a technical recession in Arizona, a phrase I don’t think we have heard elsewhere). Schools was the second most frequent response mentioned by voters we talked to on Saturday; many voters now are associating schools with mass gun violence and are concerned about school safety (there are cultural issues that come up, as well). Health Care Costs was the third most mentioned issue. Someone asked when the cost of Insulin was going down. We still hear a lot additional comments about Reproductive Rights and Gun Violence in the “single issue” or message to Congress query.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters, which means we haven’t seen responses from anyone who admits to being a Republican. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. By our work and our presence we are trying to convey that Democrats care and we listen. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
Support (measured as job approval) for President Biden continued to be 58% from the voters we talked to on Saturday. Disapproval dipped to 8%. Support for Senator Kelly rose up one point this week to 79% (his high). So while Senator Kelly is still “polling” (remember, this isn’t anything like a real poll — we don’t knock on doors of GOP households) well above President Biden, there’s been a nice uptick for both Democrats among the voters we have talked to.
We registered 31 New Voters last Saturday and updated (or corrected) the addresses of another 97 voters. We knocked on 32,451 doors and talked to 2,223 voters.
We also ask voters who open their doors whether they want to fill out a Constituent Service Request form. This week, we collected 78 CSRs in Arizona. Constituent Service Requests are handed over to (hopefully Democratic) office holders with responsibilities for the area of the request. Q-slips will be sent directly to the campaigns of Democratic candidates. Comments from Observation Forms are entered into VAN, as well.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
As I’ve noted previously, volunteers in Arizona are feeling incredibly confident about our chances in November. Kelly has been a strong candidate from the start and doesn’t make mistakes. The on-going national crisis of mass gun violence reminds us all why we need Mark Kelly in the U.S. Senate.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!