After canvassing in 8 Senate Swing States beginning in March, the state in which I fell most ill at ease is definitely Nevada. Georgia is closer on 538s polling average, but that’s because Warnock is ahead in what had been a red state. Georgia is going to be close, but Democrats have the advantage of incumbency, an opponent that is by no means a generic Republican and a GOP slate that has turned its back on Trump. But the primary difference between Georgia and Nevada is that not only are Democrats unbelievably united in Georgia, they are absolutely driven to win here.
That is simply not the case in Nevada. Sen Cortez Masto is (like most female Senators) a put-your-head-down-and-do-the-work senator. Not flashy and, according to what we have found at the doors, not that well-known. Which leaves her open to being defined by the other side. And no one thinks it is beneath Adam Laxalt to play dirty. Nevada is going to be a knife fight.
Thus we need to do what we can to continue to support Cortez Masto until the election. She is widely considered to be the most vulnerable Democratic senator right now.
Hope Springs from Field PAC found that at the doors, as well. It’s not so much that we are finding support for Adam Laxalt (we target Democratic and Independent voters and do our best to weed out GOP households), we are finding relative weak support for the incumbent senator. Not everyone knows who she is, or is as comfortable expressing support for Cortez Masto.
As we approach the end of summer — and the end of Hope Springs from Field PAC’s canvassing efforts (we are transitioning over to Election Protection and Ballot Curing after Labor Day) — volunteers have been wondering about what is next. Not just who’s going to lead the Fall canvassing in their area, but, basically, ‘are you abandoning us?’ Because i (try to — my wife has a lot of say in where i go each weekend) visit our Saturday canvassing efforts every weekend (one state at a time, of course) and talk to our organizers through the week, we knew this was coming. I’ve canvassed with volunteers in both Reno and Las Vegas this summer (and spent way too much time on the phone with Democrats in Las Vegas trying to set things up), and the volunteers i have talked to liked what we were doing, loved having Democratic senators and want to ensure that continues.
We have every intention of coming back because Nevada remains a Swing State. So, as we concede door knocking to the Senate and coordinated campaigns, there are lots of volunteer opportunities in your area to be found at mobilize.us . I know that i will repeat this a lot, but mobilize.us is a central volunteer hub for Democrats. Just like VAN, mobilize.us is a Democratic solution to a common problem. And we need to get familiar with it now because there is a lot of work left to do!
383 volunteers came out on Saturday to knock on doors for Hope Springs from Field PAC, knocking on doors in the Reno Suburbs and south of Las Vegas. The weather was pleasant enough that everyone knocked this week. So YAY! Which was fine, our only concern is that volunteers feel safe and protected.
We canvass with an Issues Questionnaire that allows voters to tell us what is on their minds. We use it as a conversational check to guide volunteers through their dialog at the door. I can’t tell you how much our volunteers like this technique and how much *they* learn from knocking on doors.
We ask voters whether they have a primary issue concern. What we are looking for is to determine whether they are “single issue” voters. We use open-ended questions because we are really looking for quick, immediate responses. People know what issues they will be voting on, and if they can’t think of any, that doesn’t defeat the purpose. This week’s responses to our query about the Most Urgent Issue was identical to last weeks (which I don’t think has ever happened before). Schools was the Top Issue in Nevada according to the voters we talked to on Saturday. The Economy and especially the prospect of a Recession was the second highest concern. Reproductive Freedom was the third most frequent response among the Nevada voters we talked to this week. Like other states, we still hear about Reproductive Rights and Gun Violence in the “single issue” or message to Congress query.
This week, voter views of President Biden dipped a little bit: 59% of the voters we talked to in Nevada last Saturday had a favorable view. 6% expressed disapproval in the job the president was doing and voters have been pretty clear why. I try not to read too much into the statistics we see each week but Nevada is the only state where Biden keeps doing better than the Democratic candidates.
52% of the voters, Democrats and independents, had a favorable impression of Senator Cortez Masto. 9% told us they had an unfavorable of the senator. But remember that we are only knocking on doors of Democrats and Unaffiliated voters, we weed out Republican households. So the fact that Cortez Masto has these kind of numbers — again, it seems to be mostly a function of voter awareness and familiarity (note that her approval numbers rose during the primary) — without the inclusion of GOP voters is a bit disconcerting. Granted, it may be that i just don’t like how soft her support is and her support will come back in the Fall like it did during the primary. But these are unusual support indicators.
55% of the voters who responded gave Governor Sisolak a favorable rating. 8% said they had an unfavorable impression.
Normally, at this point of the diary, i would make an ask. And i’m still going to do that, but i want to encourage people, instead of making a contribution to our efforts, to send a few bucks to Senator Cortez Masto’s campaign. So if you can, she would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/cortezmasto-digital_082022-website
Winning is what matters here.
We talked to 2,198 voters on Saturday. We registered 11 New Voters last Saturday and updated (or corrected) the addresses of another 56 voters.
We also ask voters if they have any local infrastructure issues they would tell local elected officials about. We ask those who do if they wanted to fill out Constituent Service Request forms. 101 voters raised some area that they wanted addressed. If possible, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. Far and away the number one issue that the voters we talked to in the Senate Swing States last year was inflation or price increases, and I imagine that concern has only increased.
Please, if you appreciate this grassroots effort at Deep Organizing, engaging with voters early and often, and think it is vital to maintain a Democratic majority in the Senate, please help Senator Cortez Masto:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/cortezmasto-digital_082022-website
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!