Why is a partial mobilization necessary for a limited military operation that was going so well. The 40-50,000 who will be called up or conscripted in 30 days will replace the tens of thousands already lost. Similarly Putin makes a national speech declaring that he's not bluffing, yet the threat of tactical nuclear war has always been there since 1945 and NATO is likely ready, even as it could signal an apocalypse.
The Americans are good about making fancy cars and refrigerators, but that doesn't mean they are any good at making aircraft. They are bluffing. They are excellent at bluffing. — Hermann Göring
“Russia wants to spend the winter on the occupied territory of Ukraine and prepare for a new offensive: new Buchas, new Iziums,” Zelensky said, referring to towns where hundreds were found dead in the wake of Russian retreats. “Or at least it wants to prepare fortifications on occupied land and carry out military mobilization at home.”
He also urged nations to punish Russia in the United Nations, at least as long as “aggression lasts.” He said that Russia should be deprived of its veto power in the U.N. Security Council, that a special tribunal should be created to adjudicate the war and that prosecutors should seek out Russian money.
“Russia should pay for this war with its assets,” he said.
And he said countries should not be intimidated by Russia’s leverage with oil and gas supplies, calling for caps on Russian energy prices as a way to mitigate soaring energy costs.
“Limiting prices is safeguarding the world,” he said. “But will the world go for it? Or will it be scared?”
Mr. Zelensky criticized countries that have tried to avoid antagonizing Russia, saying they acted only to protect their “vested interests,” but he did so without naming names. He reserved his most castigating language for Russia itself and for the handful of nations that had sided with Russia in voting against allowing his speech to be played for the General Assembly: Belarus, North Korea and Syria among them.
He ended the address by broaching the subject of peace talks, which have stalled for months despite some progress on specific issues like grain exports and a U.N. nuclear mission.
“Probably you have heard different words from Russia about the talks, as if they were ready for them,” he said, before alluding to Russia’s efforts to call up more soldiers and to hold referendums in occupied territory. “They talk about the talks but announce military mobilization,” he said. “They talk about the talks but announce psuedo-referendums.”
He said that Ukraine, in contrast, was not just ready for talks, but for “true, honest fair peace.” The heads of state and diplomats in the audience gave him a sustained ovation after he added, “That’s why the world is on our side.”
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There is no indication of a mass Russian withdrawal, and Russian forces have continued to assault Ukrainian positions and pound Ukrainian towns and villages. In areas where Ukraine has had the advantage, the Russian military may find a way to dig in, hold the front and wait for winter, when the ground freezes and advances are harder. After a period of faster maneuvering, the fighting could slow down and revert to a war of attrition, with Russia’s willingness to destroy populated areas with artillery pushing Ukraine back.
But the recent Ukrainian gains have reshaped the politics of the war as well as the battlefield. It now seems less likely that Western countries would withdraw military support for Ukraine, which has proven essential. Meanwhile, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is facing unusual criticism at home over the military’s recent losses — and concerns from Xi Jinping, the leader of China, which is Russia’s most powerful partner.
In this climate, Russia’s central issue — a lack of trained, motivated fighters — is not easily solved. Mr. Putin’s announcement on Wednesday of a “partial mobilization” of people with military experience that would see roughly 300,000 soldiers called up could help supplement Russian forces. But the quality of the new recruits is unclear, and it could take time to organize and deploy them, limiting the immediate effect on the battlefield.
Although it is still considered unlikely, it is now possible to imagine that continued Ukrainian successes could lead to the collapse of Russian morale and ability to fight, Mr. Muzyka, the Rochan Consulting analyst, wrote on Monday.
“It is no longer science fiction to think that the war will end in a matter of weeks, months, and not years,” Mr. Musyka wrote.
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Click here to see interactive map, updated daily: arcg.is/09O0OS Looking for another interactive map? see original Deployment map.
Russia has seen a marked exodus of citizens since Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine almost seven months ago. During Putin’s address to the nation Wednesday in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists, he also issued a veiled nuclear threat to Russia’s enemies in the West.
Reports of panic spreading among Russians soon flooded social networks. Anti-war groups said the limited airplane tickets out of Russia reached enormous prices due to high demand and swiftly became unavailable. Social networks in Russian surged with advice on how to avoid the mobilization or leave the country.
Some postings alleged people already had been turned back from Russia’s land border with Georgia and that the website of the state Russian railway company had collapsed because too many people were checking for ways out of the country.
The OVD-Info monitoring group said over 800 Russians were arrested Wednesday in anti-war protests in 37 Russian cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. Protesters in Moscow chanted “No to war!” and “Life to our children!”
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A report released in February by the Federation of American Scientists found that Russia had a stockpile of approximately 4,477 nuclear warheads in total. Of this number, roughly 1,588 were strategic warheads that had been deployed, while 977 were in storage but ready to use. Russia had roughly 1,912 nonstrategic warheads that the report says are also in central storage, though FAS notes that these storage sites may be close to bases with operational forces (a further 1,500 warheads were considered retired but still “largely intact”).
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The United States, meanwhile, has 1,644 strategic nuclear weapons deployed, as well as 100 tactical weapons that are deployed in Europe. It has a further 1,984 warheads in storage — of which 130 are tactical.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin made a clear reference to such a scenario in a national address on Wednesday that called for a partial military mobilization in the face of setbacks in the war.
“In the face of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal,” Putin said.
“This is not a bluff,” he said. “I will emphasize this again — with all the means at our disposal.”
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However, despite the echoes of the Cold War past, the strategic landscape has shifted. Many analysts say that wartime equations about the risk of using nuclear actions — which are never simple — have been complicated by “tactical” warheads that Russia has stockpiled. These smaller nuclear weapons, far less powerful than the ones the United States dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II, are designed to be used on the battlefield.
Many experts warn against underestimating these weapons of mass destruction, which could cause widespread casualties from radiation alone, which could not be narrowly contained.
The smaller size of the weapons, some experts fear, could break down the nuclear taboo. Russia is believed to have more than 1,500 of them.
Sarah Bidgood, director of the Eurasia program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif., said it was hard to estimate the level of risk that Russia would use a tactical nuke in Ukraine, but that it was clear that Russia relied on its nuclear weapons, including tactical weapons, to give it flexibility in managing the risk of escalation.
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