projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
It’s not quite Fall yet, but Republican prospects for winning control of the US Senate are certainly cooling off, according to a wide variety of opinion polls that have been released in the last couple of weeks.
Recent Polls of US Senate Races
Date |
State |
Democrat |
Republican |
Other |
Pollster |
9/3 |
PA |
Fetterman 49% |
Oz 40% |
|
Raba Res. |
8/29 |
PA |
Fetterman 49% |
Oz 44% |
|
PPP |
9/1 |
UT |
|
Lee 46% (i) |
McMullin 47% |
Impact Res. (D) |
9/7 |
WA |
Murray 48% (i) |
Smiley 39% |
|
PPP |
9/5 |
OH |
Ryan 48% |
Vance 39% |
|
Center St. PAC |
8/23 |
OH |
Ryan 50% |
Vance 47% |
|
Impact Res. (D) |
9/4 |
NC |
Beasley 44% |
Budd 47% |
(2 others) 3% |
Trafalgar (R) |
8/30 |
NC |
Beasley 42% |
Budd 41% |
(2 others) 6% |
PPP |
9/3 |
FL |
Demings 44% |
Rubio 47% (i) |
|
Susquehanna |
8/31 |
FL |
Demings 47% |
Rubio 49% (i) |
|
Impact Res. (D) |
9/1 |
FL |
Demings 45% |
Rubio 46% (i) |
|
Clarity Res. (D) |
8/18 |
FL |
Demings 46% |
Rubio 49% (i) |
|
Impact Res. (D) |
8/24 |
NV |
Cortez Masto 44% (i) |
Laxalt 40% |
(3 others) 4% |
Impact Res. (D) |
8/31 |
CO |
Bennett 46% (i) |
O’Dea 35% |
Peotter 7% |
PPP |
8/25 |
CO |
Bennett 48% (i) |
O’Dea 47% |
|
Tarrance Grp (R) |
8/24 |
IN |
McDermont 42% |
Young 45(i) |
|
Change Res. (D) |
8/29 |
GA |
Warnock 44% (i) |
Walker 46% |
|
Susquehana
|
8/27 |
GA |
Warnock 47% (i) |
Walker 48% |
Oliver 3% |
Trafalgar (R) |
8/28 |
IL |
Duckworth 58%(i) |
Salvi 35% |
|
Victory Geek |
8/22 |
AZ |
Kelly 50% (i) |
Masters 43% |
|
RMG Res. |
8/27 |
AZ |
Kelly 48% (i) |
Masters 44% |
Victor 4% |
Trafalgar (R) |
8/25 |
WI |
Barnes 49% |
Johnson 47%(i) |
|
Trafalger (R) |
The table has the dates the polling concluded. The Website 538 gives Democrats a 70% chance of controlling the Senate in January. Looking only at polling, 538’s “Lite” model gives Democrats 82% chance of holding the US Senate.
A Democratic gain looks likely in Pennsylvania and quite possible in Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina.
Republican Senator Mike Lee could lose to Independent/Republican Evan McMullin in Utah, according to a poll paid for by McMullin’s campaign. McMullin left the Republican Party when Trump became president and won 22.5% of Utah’s vote running against Trump in 2020. Can he do much better in a Senate race in 2022? Well, he had zero chance of becoming President, but he still got a respectable vote. Most polls show Lee well ahead.
The Democratic seat most in danger appears to be Senator Warnock in Georgia who is locked in a tight race with Herschel Walker. If you look at an average of all the polls in Georgia over the last couple of months, Warnock has a slight lead.
Most congressional race models for 2022 lean Republican since the party of the President has suffered major losses in Midterm elections-- 2018, 2014, 2010, and 2006, a consistent pattern. Joe Biden has not been popular and most voters say the country is on the wrong track. That adds to a preception Democrats will not do well.
However, all recent polls asking which party do voters want to control the US Congress show a Democratic preference, averaging 3%. Whether is from abortion, Trump, lower gas prices, recent legislative successes, or quality of candidates, Democrats in Senate races are exceeding expectations.
US House Races Shifting Slowly from Republicans
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
For the US House, 538 says Democrat odds are improving and are now at 26% chance of keeping control. Using the “Lite” model using only polling, Democrats have a 39% chance of having a majority. These models are slowly improving for Democrats.