The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this morning announced the planet will reach the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold in the first half of the 2030s unless gargantuan efforts are put into practice to precipitate a “course correction” in the continuing reliance on fossil fuels to power the global economy. Global greenhouse emissions must peak by 2025 and continuously decrease thereafter, the report warns.
“Today’s IPCC report is a how-to guide to defuse the climate time bomb. It is a survival guide for humanity,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said following the release of the report Monday.
The AR6 synthesis report does not present any new research; rather, it issues mind-warping warnings should we miss the small window of opportunity remaining. The planet has already warmed by 1.1 degrees Celsius and is on a path to minimally 2 degrees Celsius in the 21st century. GHGs increased in 2022, as governments filing their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) fell woefully short on ambition and implementation. The next UNFCCC meeting, where nations report on their NDCs is at COP28, which is scheduled in Dubai for a two-week period this upcoming November through December.
The difference between 1.5 degrees of warming and 2 degrees might mean that tens of millions more people worldwide experience life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding. A 1.5-degree world might still have coral reefs and summer Arctic sea ice, while a 2-degree world most likely would not. www.nytimes.com/...
Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, virtually every nation agreed to “pursue efforts” to hold global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“The 1.5 degree limit is achievable, but it will take a quantum leap in climate action,” the United Nations secretary general, said. In response to the report, Mr. Guterres said, calling for no new approvals of fossil fuel projects and coal plant productions.
“There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all,” the report says.
The report comes on the heels of the Biden Administration’s approval of Alaska’s Willow drilling project.
A Timeline of IPCC Reports:
The Guardian presents a history of the IPCC talks since their inception in 1992, when the report led to the creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The 1992 report predicted an increase of 2 degrees Celsius by 2025.
The report reads:
“We are certain of the following: emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases. These increases will result on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.”
The second report, issued in 1995, warned of just how serious global warming was:
“Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life.”
In 2014, the fifth report noted:
“Continued emissions will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.”
In a special 2018 report:
Prof Johan Rockström said: “Climate change is occurring earlier and more rapidly than expected. Even at the current level of 1C warming, it is painful. This report is really important. It has a scientific robustness that shows 1.5C is not just a political concession. There is a growing recognition that 2C is dangerous.”
The report also set out the daunting arithmetic of holding the temperature rise to 1.5C: “CO2 emissions [must] decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030.”
In 2022, however, emissions from fossil fuel burning rose yet again to reach a new record high. Humanity may have so far largely ignored the alarm bells sounded by the scientists. But we cannot say we were not warned.
Act Now Before it’s Too Late
The IPCCs synthesis report is its final warning, scientists say, noting that by the next assessment in 2030, it will be too late to take action.
Already:
More than 3bn people already live in areas that are “highly vulnerable” to climate breakdown, the IPCC found, and half of the global population now experiences severe water scarcity for at least part of the year. In many areas, the report warned, we are already reaching the limit to which we can adapt to such severe changes, and weather extremes are “increasingly driving displacement” of people in Africa, Asia, North, Central and South America, and the south Pacific. www.theguardian.com/...
In a Guardian article, Humanity at the climate crossroads: highway to hell or a livable future?, environmental editor Damian Carrington takes note of the three signposts which stand out in the thousands of pages of support accompanying the IPCC report.
First is that the climate crisis is fundamentally a crisis of injustice: “The 10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute 34-45% of global consumption-based emissions, while the bottom 50% contribute 13-15%.” The climate emergency cannot end without addressing the inequalities of income and gender for the simple reason that “social trust” is required for “transformative change”.
The second signpost is that any new fossil fuel developments are utterly incompatible with the net zero emissions required. “Projected CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement would exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C,” the report says
The third signpost points to the technology and finance that we need: “Feasible, effective, and low-cost options for [emissions cutting] and adaptation are already available.” Solar and wind power, energy efficiency, cuts in methane emissions and halting the destruction of forests are the key ones.
The report notes:
“The systemic change required to achieve rapid and deep emissions reductions and transformative adaptation to climate change is unprecedented in terms of scale [and] near-term actions involve high up-front investments.” However, according to the IPCC, there is “sufficient global capital to close the global investment gaps”