Next up in my state legislative series is the Minnesota House of Representatives. Currently, the balance in the chamber is 70D – 64R, meaning Democrats can afford to have a net loss of at most two seats to maintain control of the chamber, with a net loss of exactly three seats producing a tied chamber, which would presumably result in a power sharing agreement. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican”) if they are projected to flip. I am assuming, unless stated otherwise, that the incumbents are running for reelection.
Today, I am going to be looking at five house districts: HD 3A, HD 3B, HD 7A, HD 7B, and HD 11A, all located in the Iron Range (northeastern part of the state).
Minnesota House District 3A
MN HD 3A is located on the state’s northern border with Canada and encompasses a large swath of area, stretching all the way from the western half of the state to Lake Superior on the east. HD 3A had been trending away from the Democrats at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from supporting Barak Obama by about 13 points in 2012 to supporting Donald Trump by 6.5 points in 2016, though until 2020 the state house races weren’t competitive, with Democrat incumbent Rob Eklund easily winning by nearly 27 points in 2016 and by about 19 points in 2018. However, the 2020 state house race was considerably closer, with Eklund winning reelection by about 5 points, though he did manage to outrun the top of the ticket by several points, as Trump simultaneously carried the seat by between 3 and 4 points (performing only a few points worse than he did in 2016). The 2022 redistricting made HD 3A slightly redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding by about 2 points under the new boundaries. (The new district removed some of the Dem areas located towards Duluth). In the end, the GOP was able to very narrowly flip the seat, with Eklund losing to Republican Roger Skraba by a razor-thin margin of 15 votes. Note that Eklund did outperform all the 2022 statewide Democrats in the district, some of whom only narrowly lost the district by about a percentage point. HD 3A should be competitive this cycle, but I’m giving Skrbaa the edge, given that he will now have the advantage of incumbency (in contrast to last cycle when he was running against the incumbent) and the overall fundamentals favoring the GOP. I’m classifying HD 3A as Lean Republican.
Minnesota House District 3B
MN HD 3B is located along Lake Superior and contains Duluth suburbs, such as Hermantown. HD 3B was a relatively Democratic leaning district under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Hillary Clinton carrying it by about 7.5 points and Joe Biden carrying it by about 10.5 points, though both of these performances are sharp reductions from Obama’s 22-point margin of victory here in 2012. The 2020 state house race was not especially competitive with Democratic incumbent Mary Murphy winning by a little more than 13 points. The 2022 redistricting made HD 3B a few points redder, adding in more rural areas to the north of the district (away from Duluth). Specifically, Biden’s margin shrunk to about 5.5 points under the new boundaries. Republican Natalie Zeleznikar ended up very narrowly flipping the seat in 2022, as she defeated Murphy by a margin of 33 votes. Note that Murphy underperformed the 2022 statewide Dems, all of whom carried the district, which contrasts with the previously covered HD 3A, where the Dem incumbent ran ahead of all the statewide Dems. In particular, Dem Tim Walz (in the Governor’s race) fairly easily carried HD 3B by over 10 points, outrunning Biden in the district by over 5 points, despite barely outperforming him statewide. The 2022 Dem candidates for the overlapping the State Senate and U.S. Congressional districts, neither of whom were incumbents, also carried HD 3B, making Murphy’s loss even more perplexing. For 2024, the Democrats have a decent shot of winning the district back, considering how close the most recent state house race was. I have a hard time seeing the 2024 Republican Presidential nominee carrying the district, even with the long-term trends favoring the GOP. I’m classifying HD 3B as a Toss Up.
Minnesota House District 7A
MN HD 7A is home to the communities of Hibbing and Grand Rapids. HD 7A largely overlaps with the pre-2022 iterations of both HD 5B and HD 6A. HD 5B had become a solidly Republican district, with Republican Spencer Igo easily winning the open seat in 2020 by about 22 points and Trump carrying it by nearly 21 points. However, it was ancestrally Democratic, with the seat having been Dem-held until 2016, the 2018 state house race having been close, and Obama having narrowly carried it in 2012. HD 6A, on the other hand, had gone from being a solidly Dem district that Obama easily carried by over 28 points to a slightly Republican leaning district that Trump carried by over 3 points in 2016 and by over 5 points in 2020. Again, the 2016 and 2018 house races weren’t competitive for Dems, with Dem Julie Sandstede winning by 18 points and 24 points, respectively. However, the 2020 state house race was extremely close, with Sandstede just barely surviving reelection by a razor-thin 30 vote margin, against the same Republican opponent that she faced in 2016, interestingly enough. Both Igo and Sandstede were drawn into HD 7A, which went for Trump by about 12.5 points. Sandstede ended up losing to Igo by about 7 points, though she did manage to outrun Biden by over 5 points. Walz (in 2022) performed similar to Sandstede, as he also lost the district by about 7 points. The GOP should be heavily favored to hold the district this cycle, given the decent Trump margin, but the seat does have the potential to be competitive, considering the moderately close 2022 house race. I’m classifying HD 7A as Likely Republican.
Minnesota House District 7B
MN HD 7B is home to the communities of Virginia and Eveleth. HD 7B is roughly equivalent to the pre-2022 iteration of HD 6B, both in terms of geography (with the boundaries differing slightly) and partisan lean. Similar to the aforementioned HD 6A, HD 6B swung very hard to the right at the presidential level in recent years, having gone from easily supporting Obama by nearly 26 points in 2012 to narrowly supporting Trump by less than 3 points in 2016 and by a larger margin of 4.5 points in 2020. Like many of the surrounding districts, HD 6B wasn’t competitive at all at the state house level in 2016 and 2018, with Dem Dave Lislegard winning the open seat by about 24 points in 2018, slightly outrunning the previous Dem incumbent’s 2016 margin. The district was marginally competitive in 2020, with Lislegard winning reelection by about 9 points. The 2022 house race was even closer, with Lislegard narrowly winning HD 7B by just 2.5 points. Steve Simon was the only 2022 statewide Democrat to carry the district, as he won it by 2 points in the Secretary of State race, though Walz practically tied in the district, as he lost the seat by literally just 3 votes. HD 7B should be highly contested this cycle and is probably one of the best pick-up opportunities for the GOP, as it is the only Dem-held seat in the entire chamber that Biden lost. I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up.
Minnesota House District 11A
MN HD 11A is located on the southern end of the Iron Range and contains communities such a Cloquet and Moose Lake. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 11A had previously been a safe district for Dems, but became very competitive at the presidential level, with Clinton and Biden only narrowly carrying the district by less than 2 points, in contrast to Obama, who easily carried it by over 26 points. However, the state house races were not competitive in 2016 and 2018, with Democrat incumbent Mike Sundin easily winning by over 16 points in both cases. The 2020 state house race was very close, though, with Sundin narrowly winning by about 3 points. The 2022 redistricting made HD 11A slightly redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to less than a percentage point. Sundin opted not to run for reelection (in 2022) and the GOP ended up flipping the district, with Republican Jeff Dotseth narrowly winning the open seat by about 2.5 points. Some of the 2022 statewide Dems were able to win the district though, with both Walz and Simon carrying it by about 3 points. HD 11A should be competitive this cycle, given the close nature of the district. The Dems have a decent shot of flipping the seat back. I’m classifying HD 11A as a Toss Up.
Thanks to Minnesota Secretary of State website (for the 2022 statewide results of the new districts), cnanalysis.com (for the 2020 pres results of the new districts), Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).