Hope Springs from Field PAC has a hybrid origin story. It was created for the purpose of getting presidential and senate campaign field organizers into the Georgia for the Senate Runoffs. Mitch McConnell was flooding the state with field organizers from 2020 senate campaigns and Obama alums with the Biden transition wanted to do the same. But we didn’t end there because of the grassroots. Volunteers and local organizers in Georgia — especially those who were attending Albany State University -- wanted to continue, “to retain the Reverend” in 2022. Donors, too, were asking if we could export this systemic approach to Deep Organizing to other swing states.
Which is to say that Hope Springs morphed from an alumni project to a volunteer grassroots driven effort that, hitherto this point, relies on (volunteer) Obama alumni expertise. As part of our approach, i make 30 calls a week, 10 to organizers, 10 to volunteers and 10 to voters who had talked to one of our volunteers in the last week. So volunteers, just as our donors, have no problem texting me, or emailing me, or even calling me when they have a question or just want to make a comment or observation (in lieu of an Observation Form). So it was no surprise that i got texts yesterday about the Jacksonville election, making sure we knew about Donna Deegan’s victory and asking about our part in it.
Our focus in Jacksonville initially was minority neighborhoods. The reason we started canvassing in Jacksonville this year was in anticipation (hope?) that the Florida courts would overturn the 2022 remap and restore the African-American Congressional District that had been anchored in Jacksonville for decades. Like everywhere else, our efforts have been driven by our grassroots volunteers who, along with organizers, which — in this case — altered our earlier plans when Georgia volunteers joined our Jacksonville volunteers to canvass (and organize) during their Spring Break. Not exactly sure how many of our 34 Georgia volunteers who came down were still in college, but their influence on the energy and strategy for our Jacksonville canvasses were considerable.
So we tripled the number of Black Churches we were working with in Duval County (Jacksonville and Duval County are contiguous), who are registering (or re-registering) voters, filling out Incident Reports and encouraging members to Get Out to Vote (the nice way of saying nagging), which is supported by matching their membership lists with the voter files through our access to VAN. We also got canvassing volunteers, which is especially helpful because we like for a majority of our volunteers to match the neighborhoods where they are canvassing. We do actually find that open door rates and voter response rates increase when African-American volunteers knock on the doors of Black voters.
But the biggest indicator of success of our Georgia-Florida cross fertilization in Jacksonville has been the increase in volunteers knocking on doors during our hybrid GOTV canvasses. We jumped from 183 volunteers who knocked on doors in Jacksonville from March 4th until April 15th to 710 volunteers who canvassed from April 22nd to this week. Overall, Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 52,185 doors during the sprint to election day, including one canvass where the Democratic candidate joined our volunteers to knock on doors. As we have done before in Texas and Pennsylvania, we did robocalls for the households in the turf assigned to the candidate.
But the Georgia volunteers also shared another technique that Jacksonville volunteers asked to be included in our GOTV canvassing. In the 2022 Georgia Senate Runoff, we were assigned Republican voters who lived in 88 precincts who had voted for Republican Brian Kemp for Governor and Democrat Raphael Warnock for Senate. We didn’t have the same kind of data, but what we could access through VAN was households that had both Democratic and Republican adult voters, and so we targeted those in our last two weeks of canvassing (and the canvasses organized through the mayoral campaign but staffed by our organizers — this relevant because we continued to use Constituent Service Request forms and Q(uestion)-slips at the door). Like in Georgia, we found this to be incredibly fertile ground — and we know from feedback that it can ease tensions in these two-party households. (We don’t record data for those affiliated canvasses, though (they are included in the campaign’s data records).)
But for those who asked, we can’t claim any more credit for victory in Jacksonville any more than the dozen or so other independent efforts over the last month. We have confidence in our approach — and i don’t think there is any doubt that our Georgia volunteers brought additional energy and outreach to this election. What mattered was that we were united in our goals, and we were committed to expanding the electorate, not relying on the base. We let voters see that Democrats are committed to governing, not focused on dividing Americans. And that this commitment to governing reaches to all levels of American government.
Whereas our other canvasses focus on Democrats and unaffiliated voters, we found in Georgia (and now Florida) that these micro-targeted GOTV efforts bare results, and we will see those results when the data is finalized and realized in a couple of months. But we knew that registered Republicans and voters with no party affiliation, together, outnumbered registered Democrats in Jacksonville. Tuesday’s win has clearly re-energized Florida Democrats, “giving the party — which doesn’t hold a single statewide office — a glimmer of hope heading into 2024, when there’s a good chance that the GOP challenger to President Joe Biden will come from Florida.” And the Deegan campaign followed the 2017 Virginia model, which has also been called a “unity-based approach,” expanding the electorate outside the partisan base, which fit perfectly with our systemic approach of voter contact. It is also transferable to other areas in Florida. More Republicans voted in Jacksonville than Democrats on Tuesday, so:
A key part of Democrats’ optimism is due to Deegan’s defeat of Daniel Davis, a former legislator and CEO of Jacksonville’s chamber of commerce, 52 percent to 48 percent, even though Republicans edged Democrats in overall turnout by three percent. The numbers suggest that Deegan — who had gotten some GOP endorsements locally — was able to pick up independents and some crossover Republicans.
Overall, 402 Hope Springs volunteers came out to knock on doors in Seminole, Volusia, Osceola and Duval (Jacksonville) counties on Saturday. They knocked on 29,225 doors and talked to 2,861 voters. 268 of those voters filled out at least part of the Issues Survey (we were not using the questionnaire in Jacksonville).
The Top 3 concerns of the voters we talked to this Saturday in Florida were the Economy, Reproductive Rights and, third, Disney.
Biden Approval among the Central Floridians we talked to was at 55% last Saturday and 11% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 9% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Rick Scott was doing while 41% expressed Disapproval. There is good reason to think that Gov. DeSantis is influencing some of that.
3% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. DeSantis was doing a good job, 43% said they disapproved of the job he was doing. DeSantis literally lost half his support since we stopped using the Issues Survey in Jacksonville. In the 3 counties where we continued, voters voiced concerns about the governor “getting a free pass” because he is running for president. We especially have been hearing complaints about the legislature amending Florida’s Resign to Run law to favor the governor, as well as the Florida legislature suspending Florida’s FOIA laws for DeSantis’ travel. All to make it easier for his battle against Trump in the GOP primaries. Central Floridians, angry about the governor’s war on Disney, find these bad precedents.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since last month in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are, helping voters to understand the importance of super-compliance with these new voting restrictions that Republicans keep enacting. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be (and can be) cured (in states that allow it).
We continue to knock on doors in Georgia and North Carolina. All three were chosen not because they had competitive Senate races coming up (only Florida has a Senate election this cycle, and there is a general consensus that Rick Scott is not in danger — at this time (although i question that consensus)) — but because they are currently considered Swing States in the Electoral College (+/- 5%). And winning the White House is just as important as the Senate.
We continue to knock on doors in the Black Belt in Georgia where we have organizers because 2024 will be a turnout election. We know from the Senate Runoff last year that there were significant numbers of African-American voters who did not cast ballots in the General Election but turned out in the Runoff because they believed Warnock had it all wrapped up. We met these both in the Black Belt and the Atlanta suburbs, where we are expanding our canvassing this year.
We had 208 volunteers knocking on doors in Georgia last week. They knocked on 15,283 doors and talked to 1,279 voters. 799 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey. The Top Issues volunteers found in Georgia was Mass Shootings. The second most frequent response was Schools and Taxes and third were Summer Jobs & Recessionary Impacts. Little more of the third of our responses were from the northern suburbs, but they were more consistent about their Top Issues.
Biden’s Approval numbers among the Georgians we talked to was at 61% last Saturday, with a Disapproval number of 8%. In comparison, Approval of Governor Kemp was 35% and Disapproval was 35% last Saturday.
Volunteers registered 15 new voters and re-registered 17 voters. 58 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 1 voter completed an Incident Report. Four other voters expressed concerns about the 2024 elections but did not fill out incident reports because they didn’t admit to witnessing voter suppression or intimidation (they just expressed concerns or worries about them). This is kind of new, and probably has something to do with 2022.
We continue to find voters who say they need a photo id (which is surprising since that was required to vote in the 2022 elections) — even in the Atlanta suburbs — and we make a note in preparation of helping them to obtain one from the Registrar’s office.
In North Carolina, 155 volunteers knocked on doors Saturday. They knocked on 11,067 doors and talked to 1008 voters. 613 of these voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.
The Top 3 Issues canvassers found in North Carolina were first, Reproductive Rights, secondly Prices and third, Crime.
Biden’s Approval number among the Democratic and unaffiliated voters we talked to was 54%; remember, we don’t include Republican households in our walk lists (which our volunteers really, really appreciate). Disapproval was 11%. Democratic Governor Roy Cooper does better among these voters. 52% of the voters we talked to on Saturday approved of the job Cooper is doing; 5% expressed disapproval.
Volunteers registered 4 new voters and re-registered 29 voters. 41 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 1 voter completed an Incident Report. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
If you support grassroots organizing to increase voter participation and election protection, expand the electorate and prepare the electoral battlefield for Democrats, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods. In Florida, we had 63 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. That includes making sure that out-of-state workers at Disney know to, and how to, obtain a State ID card if they don’t want to give up their out-of-state DL but still want to vote in Florida. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!