In the last cycle, Georgia was the center of the political universe. But this is a presidential election cycle, and the Electoral College plus the Senate means that Ohio and Pennsylvania act as the center of the universe. If Republicans mount a strong challenge in Michigan, that state will join them. It’s being called the Midwest Hinge.
This region is also where the Canadian fires/smoke is becoming worrisome. Hope Springs from Field PAC has been canvassing in these areas since the Spring, as weather permits, and you probably are not surprised that organizers are getting contacted about knocking on doors here this Saturday. The answer is, we still don’t know yet. It really depends on whether or not it is safe to do so.
These are much shorter canvassing seasons and even employing our technique for canvassing under extreme weather conditions (utilizing a cooling vehicle to transport volunteers to short walk sequences), air quality is a factor where that can’t be used. Safety of our volunteers is paramount. Especially in an off-election year.
Our volunteers know that. Whether Democrats maintain 50 votes and controlled by who sits in the Senate as Vice President will be determined in 2024 by them. Maintaining a Democratic majority in the Pennsylvania state House and increasing Democratic presence in the state senate, as well as protecting Democratic seats in Congress is also a driving force. And our volunteers are not shy to admit why they are knocking on doors. They buy into this system.
286 volunteers came out to knock on doors in 12 canvasses around Pennsylvania last Saturday. The grey Congressional Districts represent most of where we are targeting, but we also walking on the Mainline and in minority neighborhoods in Philadelphia as well. Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 20,820 doors last Saturday and talked to 1,661 voters. 1010 of those voters answered questions to at least part of the Issues Survey.
Concern over the Credit Crunch was the most frequent response to our question about voter’s top concern on Saturday in Pennsylvania. Economic Uncertainty was the second more frequent response this week, and come voters clarified this by talking about how the newspaper keeps talking about an impending Recession while they are stilling worrying about Rising Prices and/or Inflation. LGBT Rights was third, a first for it rising to reach the list.
Biden Approval among the Pennsylvanians we talked to was at 58% last Saturday and 5% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 62% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Casey was doing while 4% expressed Disapproval. 53% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Shapiro was doing a good job, 5% said they Disapproved. Remember that each week, we are hitting doors in different neighborhoods, which can account for sharp derivation in the results.
109 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
Volunteers registered 13(!) new voters in Pennsylvania and re-registered 52 voters in compliance with Federal (HAVA) law. 1 voter filled out an Incident Report (in Philadelphia) about issues they witnessed in a prior election.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
299 volunteers showed up to knock on doors in Ohio on Saturday. They knocked on 21,019 doors on Saturday and talked to 1,700 voters. 1025 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.
The Economy was the Top Concern, but we had lots of voters talking about their worry that kids in school aren’t finding jobs for the Summer (again), which leads to Summer Concerns as the second most frequently cited concern. So, to understand the differentiation in last Saturday’s canvass, when a voter talked about Summer Jobs, we combined that with other concerns about the economy but when voters talked about what they were going to do with their kids this summer, that’s a Summer Concern! Reproductive Right was the third most frequently mentioned concern.
Joe Biden’s Approval numbers among the Ohioans we talked to rose to 55% last Saturday; his Disapproval number fell to 10%. Senator Brown’s Job Approval was 59% with 7% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor DeWine, meanwhile, was 44%; Disapproval was 13% last Saturday. There have been a lot of comments about DeWine’s numbers, but he is definitely seen favorably among independent or unaffiliated voters. I don’t know why.
Hope Springs from Field volunteers registered 4 new voters. 37 more voters updated their voter registration to comply with federal law. We differentiate between new voters registered and existing voters re-registering because we plan to continue our New Voter Postcard effort, and even add Voter Video Chains this cycle.
95 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if there are no Democrats who can further the request, and the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!