If Pennsylvania and Ohio are the Midwest Hinge, Arizona and Nevada are the Western version of critical swing states both the President and Democrats in the Senate must win in 2024. We have a lot riding on two states where the state Democratic Party organization could (and should) be a lot stronger. Which isn’t a dig on them. Just there’s a lot of work to do. Lots of states in this condition. But we have to recognize that we can’t ignore state party organizations, we need to work together, participate locally even if one’s focus (like mine) is on the national party and issues.
I know way too many examples of volunteers, even “super volunteers,” who volunteer for their local party and get the “Who Sent You?” experience. After the 2008 presidential campaign, we had a core group of tech people who had been critical to our digital efforts and wanted to get involved in their local party afterward. They got, to put it in a nice way, the cold shoulder. I know people who got the same after the Dean campaign. We got to get past that, somehow.
In Arizona, especially, a lot of our volunteers have had experience with other “outside groups,” and have had good experiences in their telling. These outside groups, like Hope Springs from Field PAC, have fairly simple core missions that make it easier for volunteers to grasp. But the state and county party orgs are absolutely critical to winning elections and gaining power, for our candidates and our beliefs. They can’t be ignored.
As you might imagine, that diatribe is the result of a conversation i had with one of our volunteers this week. After we were done, he thanked me for explaining how what we do complements what the local party (as weak as he described it). “We are only as strong as our weakest link,” we concluded. And the thing is, as probably all our volunteers recognize, voters are really outside that “power bubble.” I am told repeatedly how friends of volunteers believe they are super knowledgeable about state and local politics, something these volunteers rarely feel. “I try to keep up," is something we hear a lot from the people knocking on doors with us.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been canvassing in Arizona since March 11th (and in Nevada since April). Last Saturday, 305 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the western suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson in the Arizona Congressional Districts First, Fourth and Sixth. They knocked on 20,679 doors and talked to 1,569 voters. 921 of those voters filled out at least part of the Issues Survey.
Inflation was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to Saturday. Healthcare Costs was the #2 issue concern. Defending Democracy, a term that was specifically used by at least one voter, was the third most frequently raised issue on Saturday.
Biden Approval was up, i believe, in all the states we canvassed last Saturday. I suspect it has something to do with the Debt Ceiling being successfully raised, but i am speculating. Among the Arizonans we talked to Biden’s Job Approval was 53%; 11% expressed some measure of Disapproval (down slightly). 9% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Sinema was doing while 43% expressed Disapproval. We ask ask about whether voters Approve of likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. 47% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman. (We are not asking about disapproval of the Congressman yet.)
53% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Hobbs was doing a good job, 18% said they disapproved of the job she was doing. Because some of our volunteers want to compare Sinema disapproval numbers to Rep. Ruben Gallego’s approval numbers, we include it here (as we will each week).
Hope Springs from Field volunteers registered 6 new voters and registered 49 voters who updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter skews the number higher). We did not register any new voters last weekend. In Arizona, we had 58 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
213 volunteers turned up to knock on doors in the southern suburbs of Las Vegas and Reno. They knocked on 15,272 doors and talked to 1,346 voters. 817 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.
The Top 3 Issues canvassers found in Nevada last weekend were Economic Uncertainty, Worries about the state Legislative Session was Second and the Public Ethics was Third. This was a very weird combination, although the numbers supporting each one was small. Reproductive Rights was a mere 1 vote behind Public Ethics.
Biden’s Approval numbers among the Nevadans we talked to was at 54% last Saturday, with a Disapproval number of 9%. Senator Rosen had an Approval rating of 58% with 8% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Lombardo was 26% and Disapproval was 47% last Saturday. (Lombardo had previously been the Clark County Sheriff so he is better known in the Vegas area.)
Volunteers registered 2 new voters and re-registered 32 voters. 33 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if there are no Democrats who can further the request, and the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
1 voter filled out an Incident Report about issues they witnessed in a prior election.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. We do our best to weed out Republican households but we are including mixed households this year, after our successful efforts to win over Republican voters in mixed households in the Georgia Runoff.
At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!