Heading into the first 2024 Republican presidential debate, four-time indictee and former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the field in both national and early-state polling. But the more data, the better. And using favorable ratings provided by Civiqs, we can discern other dynamics in the Republican corner.
To kick things off, here's the net favorable rating among GOP voters of every Republican candidate for which Civiqs has data:
The most glaring numbers here are probably former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie having the two lowest favorables among Republican voters. They are likely both well known and reviled enough to kill any chance of them becoming the nominee. We’ll dig deeper on each candidate gracing the stage tonight, but let’s start with the notable absence in the room—the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
Former President Donald Trump: 77% favorable, 13% unfavorable
Trump has the highest net favorable rating of any Republican candidate, but it's worth noting that his 77% favorable is roughly a dozen percentage points or more below the low-90s profile he maintained for most of his White House tenure.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina: 64% favorable, 9% unfavorable
Scott, while not as nationally known as some other top-tier rivals, is very well liked. In early polling of Iowa, Scott is generally running third, behind Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: 69% favorable, 15% unfavorable
DeSantis' favorables have been descending ever since he handily won reelection last year. It seems that the more voters see of him, the less they like him.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy: 53% favorable, 12% unfavorable
Ramaswamy is on the rise and quickly converting GOP voters who were unfamiliar with him into fans.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley: 49% favorable, 26% unfavorable
Haley has steadily shedded support ever since being the first Republican to announce her candidacy in February.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum: 8% favorable, 11% unfavorable
No one knows who this guy is, with 80% of GOP voters responding “unsure” in Civiqs’ tracking. And that may continue to be true following the debate. CNN is reporting Burgum suffered an acute Achilles tear playing basketball on Tuesday, throwing his debate attendance into question.
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson: 11% favorable, 29% unfavorable
Hutchinson is slightly better known than Burgum, but it’s not doing him any favors. To Republicans familiar with Hutchinson, it’s likely no secret that he’s a huge Trump detractor. Hutchinson, like Haley and Pence, is an old-school Republican who came of age in the afterglow of the Reagan era that Trump eventually snuffed out. He and Christie are occupying a similar lane in the sense of their willingness to call out Trump, but Christie’s a brawler, while Hutchinson is continuing his appeals to the GOP’s better angels. He apparently missed the memo that none are left.
Former Vice President Mike Pence: 29% favorable, 58% unfavorable
It's been a rough go for Pence, who held an 84% favorable rating among Republicans on Jan. 6, 2021, the day when Trump supporters inside the U.S. Capitol called for him to be hung. Today, Pence is among the most reviled Republicans running for the nomination.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: 12% favorable, 68% unfavorable
Christie's star has risen slightly in New Hampshire, where he has focused the lion's share of his energy and is running second in at least two recent polls. Still, according to FiveThirtyEight, no Granite State poll has Christie registering higher than 14%, so that’s likely right around his ceiling. Christie still might play the role of disruptor in this field. And the big question related to Christie and Wednesday’s debate is whether he will attempt to tear everyone down, or focus most of his energy on dismantling someone like DeSantis.
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We talk about the upcoming Republican presidential debate and how sad a situation it is. The Republican Party shot itself in the foot with a Trump-sized bullet and now it's stuck with him for the foreseeable future. We still try to game out the possible paths the Republican field might take in order to rid themselves of the Donald.