This diary explains why we are where we are in current polling, but also why we are in a better position to win the 2024 presidential election than the defendant.
The defendant has NEVER surpassed or even hit 47% in the general election.
When I looked at the polls, I saw double digit undecideds. With the defendant and President Biden. These people don't want to vote for the defendant. President Biden was not visible. The media reinforced the right wing bullshit that he was in cognitive decline. Those on the left tend to be more vulnerable to economic pain. They are starting to see that things have been getting better. The defendant has a ceiling. A low ceiling. Do these nitwits not understand that? Nothing that has happened since the last election will help him and a lot of things that will hurt him have happened.
Suppose that there's no verdict on any case or only on the Campaign Finance Election Interference Case, do we really and truly believe that those who don't normally vote R or for the defendant will not draw a negative inference? Didn't something much milder happen where there wasn't even a fucking Indictment much less a metric shit ton of evidence listed in an indictment that cost somebody the election according to Nate Silver?
I could almost swear that there was. Comey spits at her, doesn't indict her and her campaign explodes and she loses, but his business is declared corrupt , he's found to be liable in a civil trial for sexual assault by a jury which a judge says you can call rape, he incited an insurrection which the whole world say and blamed him for, even Republicans, he tries to pressure the Republican Georgia Secretary of State into altering the election and we hear this on tape, and we hear him on tape sharing classified documents which he himself didn't have clearance for any longer much less the publicist there, and he admitted that he killed Roe and we think he's going to do better than his 46.8% personal best ? Right. With a good economy. The only good economy of any nation in the G7.
Anybody not already committed to the defendant in polling, who do you think they are voting for?
Fuck MAGA.. We are going to expose him. We have money, they don't. MAGA won't watch our Convention. No doubt. Everybody who doesn't want to vote for the defendant will watch the convention.
But again the main thing is that with the alternative being the defendant, they just need permission to vote for President Biden. And if he is visible and campaigns a lot, then they will get that permission they need.
1. If these people think that Donald Trump is going to improve upon his 2020 numbers, they're insane. He is at best a known quantity.
2. He is not even trying to expand his voters. He doesn't want Nikki Haley voters or NON MAGA.
3. In the most polls, there are at least double digit undecideds and if anyone, again, thinks he will surpass 46.8% from 2020, they are smoking the really good stuff. See Rule 1.
4. The media was pushing the right wing bullshit that Biden is in cognitive decline. The SOTU blew that out of the water. MAGA Mike is as stupid as he looks if he thinks a teleprompter could save somebody with dementia in an hour and a half speech with President Biden interacting with Republicans off the cuff, extemporaneously, and in conversations we heard afterwards. If President Biden campaigns frequently and stays visible, then he will give those who are undecided permission to vote for him.
5. Those who have not already committed to the defendant refuse to vote for him. He is not adding voters.
6. A lot of things happened since November 2020 and any one of them would be a death blow to any candidate. Sure they don't dissuade MAGA from voting for him, but the rest of the electorate is elastic to use an economic term. His charity was found to be a scam and so was his university before, but now his whole brand, his company was corrupt as a whole, so corrupt that he had to pay $450 million, he was found liable for sexual assault by a jury, he incited an insurrection, an assault on the Capitol, in an attempted coup and even Republicans blamed him for it, he is on tape sharing classified documents without a security clearance, he was indicted for Campaign Finance Election Interference by paying a porn star $130,000 three weeks before the election, he is on tape trying to pressure the Republican Georgia Secretary of State into changing the state certified results of the 2020 presidential election, and he admitted that he killed Roe.
7. Voters are recognizing that the economy has improved. Our people are hurt more by economic downturns and difficult situations like high inflation, but they are gradually recognizing an improving economy.
8. When is the last time that an incumbent president lost reelection with these kind of economic numbers? I can't come up with anything other than Ford who lost for pardoning Richard Nixon.
9. One issue is causing division within the party. However, President Biden has been moving in the right direction for those upset at him. It is still March. I would be very surprised if he doesn't continue to move in this direction. The defendant's actions show that he shut the Palestinians out and opposed a two state solution. If you wanted to try to move one of these two candidates to a more progressive position, who would you prefer to attempt that with? No matter what, we must conclude that President Biden is significantly better on this issue. Most of these people will come home recognizing that whatever their disagreements with President Biden, he is significantly better than the defendant. Linking him to inaccurate, morally loaded words is, hopefully, going to decrease.
This, hopefully, explains to a large extent, why we are where we are, but also why we are, in my view, likely to win as long as President Biden stays visible.