• MT-Sen: AdImpact reports that the conservative group One Nation has booked at least $14.3 million in ads from April through September. Other major outfits have already reserved tens of millions in airtime for Montana's hotly contested Senate race.
• CA Ballot: The Associated Press projected on Tuesday night that California's Proposition 1, a ballot measure to reform mental health spending, had passed 50.2-49.8. The call came more than two weeks after the March 5 election, and the suspense led Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who was Proposition 1's top supporter, to postpone his planned State of the State address.
The New York Times says that Newsom's allies raised $15.7 million to promote Proposition 1, which includes a $6.4 billion bond to fund treatment and housing, compared to a mere $1,000 for the opposition side. However, Politico explains that disability and civil rights groups have argued that the measure would negatively impact existing mental health services and increase the number of involuntary treatments.
Proposition 1, which had seemed certain to pass for most of the campaign, struggled to prevail during a primary election that saw conservatives make up a disproportionate share of the electorate. That was almost a fatal mistake: The Los Angeles Times reports that Newsom could have placed the measure before voters in November but decided it would fare better as the only bond on the ballot.
Pollster Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California also told the New York Times that, by making himself the face of Proposition 1, Newsom may have damaged its prospects with voters who disliked him. Baldassare added, "The default for voters is to always vote no if they don’t understand something about an issue."
• NE Ballot: Anti-abortion groups in Nebraska announced this week that they're trying to place a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would almost completely outlaw the procedure after the first trimester, essentially enshrining the 12-week ban the legislature approved last year into the state's governing document.
The drive comes at a time when reproductive rights advocates are working to put their own amendment before voters to allow abortions to take place until fetal viability, which is about 22 to 24 weeks into pregnancy. The Protect Our Rights coalition warned that conservatives are not only looking to safeguard the state's current ban but are hoping to "leave the door open for far more restrictive bans."
They're right to be worried that Nebraska's Republican-led state government isn't content with the status quo. The legislature last year originally tried to pass a six-week ban, but Democrats organized a filibuster to prevent the bill from receiving the two-thirds majority it needed to proceed.
The GOP ultimately settled for a 12-week ban that also outlawed gender-affirming care for minors, but Gov. Jim Pillen soon made it clear he wanted to go even further than the original plan. "I pushed hard to get us to 12," he said in June, "but we’re going to end abortion."
Amendment supporters on both sides need to turn in signatures from 10% of registered voters by July 3, a figure that represented about 123,000 total as of March. The anti-abortion side can't begin, however, until the secretary of state approves its petition language, while Protect Our Rights said earlier this month that it's already "on track" to qualify.
Despite their head start, though, the state's rules make it difficult for liberals to place their policies on the ballot. That's because amendment campaigns need to gather signatures from 5% of registered voters in at least two-fifths of the state's 93 counties.
This requirement significantly hinders progressives—but not conservatives—because the “bluest” two-fifths of counties include some that Donald Trump won by landslide margins of up to 78-19. Still, the head of Nebraska Right to Life predicted to Nebraska Public Media in early March that Protect Our Rights "will likely get their signatures."
If progressives get their amendment on the ballot, they have some reason for optimism even in this red state. A tracking poll from Civiqs, which shows that voters nationwide believe abortion should be legal most or all of the time by a 62-35 margin, also finds that a 51-45 majority of Nebraskans feel the same way.
And should both amendments pass, the state constitution says that the one with the most "yes" votes "shall thereby become law as to all conflicting provisions."