Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Ivan Fedorov reported that Russian forces launched at least one ballistic missile against Zaporizhia Oblast on May 12. Ukraine's Southern Operational Command stated that Ukrainian air defenses shot down a cruise missile over Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on May 12.
Shoigu ❌ replaced as Defense Minister with Belousov
Patrushev ❌ Dismissed
Prigozhin, Wagner Leaders ❌ Killed
Gerasimov hasn’t been seen in months
Belousov's nearly decade-long tenure as an economic minister in the Russian federal government and his more recent involvement managing various domestic DIB innovation and drone projects, prepare him well to lead the struggling Russian MoD apparatus. The Russian MoD under Shoigu struggled with allegations of high-level corruption and bureaucratic inertia, facing constant scathing critiques from Russian military commentators.[13] Belousov has a stronger reputation for being an effective technocrat, and insider sources have claimed that he has a positive relationship with Putin.[14] Belousov met with Putin in November 2023 to discuss DIB projects and technological cooperation and has spoken to Putin about issues with Russia's domestic drone production.[15] Belousov also more recently highlighted a draft state order for 4.4 billion-rubles (roughly $48 million) for the production of drones until 2030, as well as plans to financially support drone producers and train drone developers and operators.[16] The focus on maximizing the technological innovation and output of the Russian DIB, particularly in the drone sphere, is likely to be extremely valuable to the Kremlin's war effort —the Kremlin has recently had to reckon with a gap between Russian drone production and contemporary battlefield realities.[17] Belousov personally announced in January 2023 that Russia had finalized the "Unmanned Aircraft Systems" project, which provides 696 billion rubles (about $7 billion) for the production of 32,000 drones per year until 2030.[18] Putin likely intends Belousov to use his experience in a civilian government position to bridge federal economic policies with the Russian MoD agenda, thereby more fully mobilizing the Russian DIB at a larger and longer-term scale and integrating it with domestic economic policy. This effort sets conditions for a fuller economic mobilization, suggesting that the Kremlin continues to prepare for a protracted war in Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces recently made additional confirmed tactical advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast in the Vovchansk direction (northeast of Kharkiv City) and continued limited offensive operations in this area on May 12. Geolocated footage published on May 11 shows Russian forces operating in southern Ohirtseve (west of Vovchansk), suggesting that Russian forces have seized the entirety of Ohirtseve.[46] A Ukrainian officer fighting in the Vovchansk direction noted that the situation is extremely difficult because Ukrainian forces lack adequate fortifications in the area, reporting that Russian forces have surrounded Vovchansk and that meeting engagements are already occurring within the settlement.[47] ...ISW therefore assesses that Russian forces also likely seized Hatyshche (just northwest of Vovchansk) and Tykhe (just east of Vovchansk) given the Ukrainian officer's report that Russian forces have surrounded Vovchansk... The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces attacked near Buhruvatka (west of Vovchansk), suggesting that Russian forces have likely consolidated positions between the international border and the Buhruvatka-Starytsya area.[49] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces have advanced 2.5 kilometers in the Vovchansk direction and noted that the Russian command has deployed at least four motorized rifle battalions of the 11th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District [LMD]) to the Vovchansk direction.[50]
Russian forces also recently made confirmed advances in the Lytpsi (north of Kharkiv City) direction and continued limited offensive operations in this area on May 12. Geolocated footage published on May 12 shows that Russian forces advanced up to a windbreak south of Pylna and north of Lukyantsi (northeast of Lyptsi).[52] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported fighting in the Lyptsi direction near Hlyboke (north of Lyptsi) and Lukyantsi.[53] Mashovets noted that the Russian offensive towards Lyptsi is auxiliary to the Russian effort towards Vovchansk and stated that Russian forces have advanced between 3.2 to 3.7 kilometers towards Hlyboke and Lukyantsi.[54] Mashovets reported that Russian forces have about three motorized rifle battalions in the Lyptsi direction and that the Russian command is bringing reserves from the 11th and newly-formed 44th army corps (both LMD) to the Zhuravlevka-Ustinka-Vergilivka area in Belgorod Oblast, northeast of the Lyptsi axis.[55] ... Ukrainian sources noted that some settlements in the northern Kharkiv direction remain contested "gray zones" despite Russian advances in these settlements, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are conducting frequent counterattacks to contest control of these areas.[57]
Russian forces appear to be attempting to quickly isolate the battlespace east of the Siverskyi Donets River and seize Vovchansk, a direction of advance that Russian forces may believe could threaten the Ukrainian grouping defending in the Kupyansk direction.
Geolocated footage published on May 11 shows Russian forces operating in southern Ohirtseve (west of Vovchansk), suggesting that Russian forces have seized the entirety of Ohirtseve.
2/ Russian forces also recently made confirmed advances in the Lytpsi (north of Kharkiv City) direction on May 12. Geolocated footage published on May 12 shows that Russian forces advanced up to a windbreak south of Pylna and north of Lukyantsi (northeast of Lyptsi). Russian and Ukrainian sources reported fighting in the Lyptsi direction near Hlyboke (north of Lyptsi) and Lukyantsi.
- Ukraine’s military chief Oleksandr Syrskii said his forces were facing a “difficult situation” in the northeastern Kharkiv region, where thousands more people have fled their homes amid an advance by Russian forces.
- Ukraine’s General Staff said fighting was raging around Vovchansk, a town about 4km (2.5 miles) from the border and 45km (28 miles) from Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-biggest city and the capital of the Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian military said Russia had deployed “significant forces for its attack on the town” but “taking no account of their own losses”, with at least 100 soldiers reported dead.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said “defensive battles” were taking place along large sections of the border near Kharkiv and that fighting was “no less acute” in some areas of the Donetsk region further to the east. Zelenskyy said 30 armed clashes had occurred in the past 24 hours in the Pokrovsk sector, northwest of the Russian-held town of Avdiivka, and there was also fighting in sectors including Lyman, Kupiansk and Kramatorsk.
- Ukrainian prosecutors said at least four civilians had been killed in the Kharkiv region since Russia began its ground offensive on Friday. Some 6,000 people have been evacuated as a result of the fighting.
- At least 13 people were confirmed dead and 20 injured after an apartment building collapsed in the Russian border town of Belgorod. Russia said the building was struck by fragments from a Ukraine-launched Soviet-era missile that was shot down by air defence.
- The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to remove Sergei Shoigu as defence minister as part of a cabinet reshuffle and replace him with Andrei Belousov, a former deputy prime minister who specialises in economics.
SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES
Several German politicians from different political parties expressed support for using NATO air defense systems stationed in NATO member states to shoot down Russian drones over western Ukraine. German outlet Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on May 11 that German Bundestag members Roderich Kiesewetter of the Christian Democrat Union Party, Agnieszka Brugger of the Green Party, and Marcus Faber of the Free Democratic Party expressed support for using NATO air defenses in countries bordering Ukraine, such as Poland and Romania, to intercept Russian drones over western Ukraine to allow Ukrainian air defenders to focus on protecting frontline areas.[45]
- Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Russian Minister of Defense on May 12, moving Shoigu to the position of Security Council Secretary in place of Nikolai Patrushev. These high-level reshuffles following the Russian presidential election strongly suggest that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to support a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.
- Belousov's nearly decade-long tenure as an economic minister in the Russian federal government and his more recent involvement managing various domestic DIB innovation and drone projects, prepare him well to lead the struggling Russian MoD apparatus.
- Shoigu's replacement of Patrushev as Security Council Secretary is in line with Putin's general pattern of quietly sidelining high-level security officials by granting them peripheral roles within the Russian security sphere rather than simply firing them.
- Russian offensive efforts to seize Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) are in large part a consequence of the tacit Western policy that Ukrainian forces cannot use Western-provided systems to strike legitimate military targets within Russia.
- Ukrainian forces continue to conduct repeat strikes on Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure, prompting Russian milbloggers to complain about Russian forces' clear and continued inability to defend against these strikes.
- Several German politicians from different political parties expressed support for using NATO air defense systems stationed in NATO member states to shoot down Russian drones over western Ukraine.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
- Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin highlighted Russian forces' continued difficulty repelling Ukrainian drones on the frontline.
Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on May 12, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces continued ground assaults northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; northwest of Svatove near Ivanivka, Berestove, and Stelmakhivka; west of Svatove near Andriivka; southwest of Svatove near Novoyehorivka and Makiivka; northwest of Kreminna near Nevske; west of Kreminna near Terny and Novosadove; and south of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area and Bilohorivka.[58]