I estimated last night that Ahmadinezhad is ahead by about 10 percents and will win by about 60%. 20 minutes ago, Farsnews published a
poll which shows 47.79% of people will vote for Ahmadi, while 35.73 percents vote for Hashemi Rafsanjani. the poll predicts ahmadinezhad will win by 55%.(5% more than Hashemi's vote)
Farsnews also revealed in the mentioned news that according to a similar poll performed by IRIB, 43.58% vote for Ahmadi while 36.5 percents will vote for Hashemi.
The sample society of Farsnew's poll includes 19889 persons from all over Iran. the poll shows the probable turnout will be 60%.
We have a clear problem, as I showed in the previous analysis, 72 hours to the election and a 5-10% gap. can reformists fill this gap? I think they can if they encounter with the problem more actively;
1- by focusing on the religious middle bottom class. (the green zone of social pyramid) to obstruct the probable Ahmadi's vote.
2- by more polarizing the sphere, so the dotted line which I drawed beside the middle and top classes will change to a solid line.
by performing the above tactics, I sure Hashemi can gain 13 millions of his 18000000 potential vote and win the election by 60-65%. they (reformists) can if they know and want. but it seems they have passively focused on destructing Ahmadinezhad's character and personality instead of a positive and active propaganda pro their nominee. the similar experiences in Iran have proved that such tactics move against itself and will be backlashed by the people, especially by the bottom class people.