This is sooo old news. Should be, anyway. I would have thought that Kossacks have perused these data ad nauseam. Yet, I keep coming across claims about the election that suggest to me that a lot of people haven't taken them on board. As I finally get tired of pointing people to the
very rich exit polling data published on CNN.COM on election night, here's one diary to try and put these notions to rest once and for all - below the fold.
First, a caveat - this is not the much fabled never released 8 pm raw exit poll data - this is the data adjusted to the actual vote count. So to the extent that the vote count was compromised, these data are compromised too. As it happens, that doesn't appear to affect any of the points I'm making, so I'll ignore it. Oh, and apologies for not providing cool graphix - sorry but life really is too short. Now for my points:
* The 2004 Presidential Election was not decided in the center.
45% of respondents identified themselves as moderates, compared to 21% liberals and 34% conservatives. Among the moderates, Kerry beat Bush by a whopping 54% to 45%. (Bush's share was up by one percentage point from 2000 though.) To me, this is the most important point: We do not need to move to the center. We already have the center. The good middle of the road folks of this country vote Democratic. The people who put Bush over the top are right-wingers who would never vote for us no matter how hard we try to be repub-lite. What we need to worry about instead is this:
* The Repubs beat us at turnout.
Bush increased his share among self-identified conservatives by three percentage points (although more conservatives - 15% - voted for Kerry than liberals voted for Bush (13%)). In terms of party ID (37% each Dem and Repub; 26% Indy), 93% of Repub voted Bush (up two points from 2000), whereas only 89% of Dems voted Kerry (who also narrowly won the Indy vote, 49% to 48%). Rove won this election (if indeed he won it) exactly as he said he would: by increasing turnout among conservative voters. Our base was energized, theirs was more energized. And here's one reason why:
* Kerry really was seen as ABB.
69% of respondents said they primarily voted for their candidate, as compared to 25% who said they voted primarily against his opponent. Among the former, 59% voted Bush, and only 40% for Kerry. Of the anti-voters, a mind-boggling 70% were Kerry voters. Sad, sad, sad. And here's another reason:
* Kerry didn't play the economic card well.
58% said they trusted Bush to handle terrorism, compared to 40% who said the same about Kerry. So the national security focus didn't pay off too well. But 20% identified Economy/Jobs as their most important issue, compared to 19% who went for Terrorism as their top priority. And, bizarrely, the first President to loose jobs under his watch since Herbert Hoover is trusted by 49% to handle the economy, compared to only 45% who say the same about Kerry. That's one area of competence we definitely could not afford to concede, however the national security issue would have plaid out. Finally, some quirks:
* Undecideds did break for Kerry.
9% of respondents said they made up their mind within three days of the election, and of these, 53% went for Kerry. So what of the incumbent rule? I would argue that it probably sorta applied - that Bush's approval/reelect ratings were right on the magic threshold and so the undecideds more or less split down the middle. That's however not reflected in this set of data, where Bush's approval rating actually turns up at 53%. In that light, the incumbent rule took a pass on this election.
* The same-sex marriage issue may have been mishandled by KE04 as well.
A 60% majority of respondent were in favor of gay marriage (25%) or civil unions (35%). But among the latter, 52% voted Bush. I'm not quite sure what to make of this, but I wonder whether it would have helped KE04 to come out more openly in favor of civil unions.
* Our GOTV doesn't look so bad after all.
26% said they'd been contacted by KE04, and of those, 66% voted Kerry. Only 24% said BC04 had gotten to them, and only 62% of those voted Bush.
* And, yes, the youth vote did come through.
54% of of the 18-29 age bracket voted KE04. Okay, should've been more - but seeing past data, this is still reason for optimism.
