I have said since 2000 that there is no way Gore voters will vote for Bush in 2004 and apparently, it seems now, Bush voters are staying in his camp as well. There will be a few who switch, but my guess is they cancel out.
Now look at the present polls. Realpolitics.com has taken the last 7 polls and averaged them. Even with that ludicrous Gallup Poll, Bush averages 48.7%. In 2000, he got, you guessed it, 48%.
Those same polls have Kerry averaged at 43.3%. My guess is the remaining 5% are Gore voters not quite certain if Kerry is liberal enough and some upset that he's not conservative enough. But they have no place to go.
The race will stay this way. Karl Rove knew this all along. That's why Bush has spent so much time in Red States. He needs to make sure he gets every one. He needs his 48% to turn out.
My question, finally, is, has anyone polled Gore and Bush voters from 2000 to determine how they are voting in 2004? I know Rove has. That's why he's concentrating on the Red States. But have there been any public polls?