I generally ignore the multitudes of naational polls that come across the news. I find them somewhat irrelevant to the election -- it's the battleground states that will decide the fate of President Bush, not whether he's running up big margins in Alabama and Texas.
But they are a measuring stick, and they play a huge role in the perception of momentum in the presidential horse race.
So in the interests of helping define a new media narrative, I'll let the decidedly non-liberal Wall Street Journal play the role of trendsetter:
Bush's Convention Bounce Vanishes as Race Tightens
Sen. John Kerry and President Bush are now enjoying almost equal levels of support, according to the latest Harris Interactive poll.
Immediately after the Republican convention in New York, several polls showed Mr. Bush jumping ahead of Mr. Kerry with a clear lead of between six and 11 percentage points. There's no such 'convention bounce' for the president in the latest poll by Harris.
Here are the actual poll results:
Harris Interactive. Likely Voters. 9/13. MoE 3%.
| April | June | August | Now |
George Bush | 46% | 51% | 47% | 47% |
John Kerry | 43 | 41 | 47 | 48 |
Ralph Nader | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
None of these | 1 | * | * | * |
Not sure/Refused | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Bush Lead | +3 | +10 | 0 | -1 |
Not only that, but 51 percent of respondents said that Bush "does not deserve to be reelected".
So suicide watch can end. Seriously. This race is a toss-up, and will likely be decided by the ground game.
Update: For those of you not clear on this, this poll was conducted by telephone.