WMUR Poll -- Thur, Fri, Sat -- MoE +/- 4.6%
Kerry 37 (37)
Dean 22 (19)
Edwards 12 (12)
Clark 11 (13)
Lieberman 8 (10)
Overall, 62% of primary voters say they are certain to support the candidate they favor. Dean (73%) and Kerry (68%) have the highest percentage of definite supporters.
The confidence of Kerry supporters is increasing -- 44% are very confident that he will win the Democratic nomination while only 23% of Dean supporters are very confident that Dean will win the nomination. Clark supporters and Kerry supporters are most confident that their candidate can beat President Bush in the 2004 general election.
Dean is still seen as the most inconsistent candidate -- 40% say he is the candidate who has most often said things he later had to retract or flip-flopped on his positions while only 11% name Kerry and 9% name Clark.
Kerry is well positioned for the election as his support is evenly distributed across political and demographic groups. Support for Dean is concentrated among liberal voters.
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Also, I might add, for those Deaniacs placing faith in Zogby to pull them out of the woods...from Kausfiles:
"Why real pollsters distrust Zogby. The money quote from Warren Mitofsky: "Zogby is not a reputable pollster...He is more a salesman and a self-promoter than a pollster. He has made lots of mistakes on election outcomes -- five in 2002."
Also, John Ellis http://johnellis.blogspot.com seem to place faith in this poll and the Gallup poll. Quoth:
I've sort of settled on the WMUR-WCVB-Fox News Channel and Gallup surveys as "my" tracking polls. The people who actually oversee the work seem to me to be the most knowledgeable about New Hampshire.
"The latest WMUR-WCVB-FNC poll has now been posted. And it bodes ill for General Clark.
The New Hampshire Survey Center (which conducts the WMUR-WCVB-FNC poll) weights the affiliation distribution at roughly 50-50; meaning that they anticipate that 50% of the primary electorate will be registered Democrats and 50% will be "undeclareds" (independents, to use the media phrase).
Using that distribution, Kerry is going to win, Dean is going to finish second and the race is on for third.
However, if the distribution is 60% Democratic- 40% Undeclared, then Kerry's numbers will fall a bit, Dean's standing will improve a bit and General Wesley Clark will disappear. As of right now, Clark is attracting only 7% of the registered Democrats surveyed to his cause."
