The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Obama with a 57-40 approval rating, which almost mirrors our own Research 2000 55-37 number. Other polls are in similar favorability territory: Fox has it at 55-41, Gallup at 56-40, Quinnipiac at 53-47, NBC/WSJ at 56-33, and so on.
Here's what those other pollsters don't do, however -- break down their samples by geography. We do. Just from last week's edition:
Obama favorability
Fav Unfav
All 55 37
South 27 68
Rest of USA 67 24
NE 82 7
Midwest 62 30
West 59 32
Democratic Party favorability
Fav Unfav
All 41 51
South 21 72
NE 62 26
Midwest 44 48
West 44 50
Republican Party favorability
Fav Unfav
All 21 67
South 48 37
NE 6 87
Midwest 10 78
West 12 75
Republicans are already celebrating their massive 2010 victories, yet the data is brutal for them. Sure, Obama is down off his highs. But so what, if Republicans can't raise their own numbers?
Since January 8, Dems have gone from +8 net favorability to -10 -- an 18-point drop. Republicans have gone from -28 to -46 -- an 18 point drop. And really, I'd rather be the party at -10 than the one at -46. Yet it's the Republicans prematurely chortling about their big 2010 victories. Such a funny, funny group of people.
Of course, the mid-terms are going to be a base election, and the thinking is that Republicans are more energized. And in August, it sure seemed as if there was an intensity gap. But we've fought hard for the public option, and we've made headway. DC Dems would've tossed the public option aside in a heartbeat the way they did single payer had we not remained engaged. Now, thanks to the heroics of the House progressives who've stood firm in the face of intense pressure, we may get the kind of legislation that WILL excite and energize the base ... AND demoralize a teabagging movement that already seems to be losing steam. Indeed, their disruption schtick is already wearing thin with the media and public, and the've got nothing else to fill the void while losing the battle for public opinion on health care and Obama's presidency.
Here's one more set of geographic numbers for your persual:
Generic Congressional Ballot
Dem GOP
All 35 29
South 21 47
NE 51 8
Midwest 37 26
West 36 28
That six-point spread looks tight until you look at the geographic breakdowns. Look at what Republicans face in the Northeast, where they're trying to hold a Senate seat in pick up a couple of House ones. Dems also have a double-digit lead in the Midwest, a fierce battleground in 2008, and likely to repeat in 2010. The West is expected to be pretty quiet in 2010 (other than a couple of seats in California, ID-01 and maybe CO-04, NM-02, and MT-AL, I can't think of anything else that could be competitive out here), but even here Dems have an 8-point lead.
Republicans trail in virtually every issue in every credible poll, and that's with the South boosting their numbers. Throw geography into the equation, and you realize that yes, the GOP remains a Southern regional rump party, and while their prospects in their home region look pretty darn good, the same can't be said for the rest of America.
