We've talked a fair bit recently about the importance of motivating Democrats to vote the 2010 Congressional midterms. In light of the troubling signs that Dems just aren't motivated to turn out, here's an important set of numbers that helps explain where the problem is:
(Among Dems only)
Fav Unfav
Barack Obama 85% 6%
Nancy Pelosi 86% 5%
Harry Reid 63% 29%
Among Democrats, President Obama and Speaker Pelosi both enjoy 80% net favorable ratings. Majority Leader Reid: 34%.
Reid's problem is that Democrats see the Senate as the place where good ideas go to die. It may not be fair to blame him, because so much of the problem is institutional, but until he either takes on those institutional roadblocks or manages to navigate his way around them while delivering progressive legislation intact, enough Democrats will blame him that his rating is going to suffer.
The problems in the Senate obviously have not had an impact on the favorablity numbers for Pelosi or Obama among Democrats, but that doesn't mean that they are immune from the fallout. With 60 members of the Democratic caucus in the Senate, it's reasonable for Democrats to believe that things like health care won't face major procedural hurdles. Of course, the opposite is happening, and it appears that many Democrats are growing disillusioned as a result.
As we saw in Virginia and New Jersey, disillusioned, unmotivated Democrats don't vote, paving the way to Republican victory. So even though the Senate may be the biggest part of the problem here, the consequences are likely to be felt by all Democrats. And that really makes it everybody's problem.
The solution isn't easy, but it can be accomplished. To excite the party's base, Democrats must pass health care reform with a public option, get moving on judicial nominations, make substantial headway on climate change and clean energy policy, start delivering on gay rights, pass immigration and labor reform, and -- perhaps most importantly from a political perspective -- get a major new jobs bill passed. It's a tough challenge, but after eight years of Bush and the G.O.P., everything is tough -- and failure is not an option.