Pro Photoman just got done voting in NY-20, and he's feeling good about tonight. Same with Davidseth, and Outside smells something good in Dutchess county. Also, meet Seneca Doane, phone-banker of the 1st Rank.
I did not vote in NY-20, but I also have a very good feeling about this.
Results.
Currently: 610 of 610 precincts
Scott Murphy: 50%
Jim Tedisco: 50%
A razor-thin Scott Murphy lead of 65 votes. There won't be a winner tonight due to absentee ballots. Murphy wouldn't have ended the night ahead if not for the people who volunteered and donated. To all of you guys, thank you.
Josh Kraushaar at Politico thinks Tedisco is in trouble. Kraushaar is Politico's go-to guy for NY-20, and his reporting spells major trouble for Tedisco and the Republicans. His reporting confirms what Davidseth and Pro Photoman have both said; turnout looks pretty good. Kraushaar's reporting also confirms what the polls show. Also, I have a hilarious update at the end. It's golden.
Here are bits and pieces from Josh Kraushaar, which are why I am feeling very good;
At one Saratoga Springs precinct, one longtime Tedisco volunteer who spent weeks phone-banking for the campaign reported getting hung up on by a significant number ("dozens") of targeted Republican voters.
In dozens of interviews with voters and poll workers, nearly everyone expressed disgust at the negative tone of the campaign – with most placing the blame on Tedisco.
There was also a lot of anger towards "outside groups" making the race negative -- though both parties spent plenty of money on negative attacks, Tedisco took the brunt of criticism.
This is not some campaign trying to lower expectations for the last minute. All polling thus far has indicated that the negative campaigning was toxic in its backlash. We can thank Michael Steele and the Republican National Trust PAC if we win tonight, and I think we will.
Democratic activists and labor would also be owed a thanks, of course. Nothing is more important than getting out the vote.
Let's also not forget Tedisco's weak performance and Murphy's tough campaigning. However, and this is important; Steele and the RNT-PAC seem to be the biggest reason for the shift of momentum to Murphy. There is a huge disconnect between the national Republicans and the voters of NY-20.
Polls close in just over one hour. There is still time to phone bank for Scott Murphy and the Democratic Party.
2009, baby. Cynicism and negativity are out. Hope and change are in. I think the national Republicans have absolutely lost this district.
UPDATE:
So how do you know Michael Steele has his stamp on this election? Because the Tedisco campaign has bused in a bunch of African-Americans and Hispanics from the city to help get out the vote. Almost none of them know anything about the campaign, and some don't even speak decent English. Does this sound like your typical conservative?
Dozens of the volunteers working to canvass and make phone calls for the Republican Assemblyman this afternoon in his Clifton Park headquarters didn’t know anything about him or his campaign – and only one volunteer (out of the dozen or so I interviewed) could name his Democratic opponent, Scott Murphy.
I interviewed about a dozen of the volunteers, many of whom knew each other from back home. Many of them spoke little English. None of them knew much about the campaign – certainly not enough to persuade a voter to go out to the poll for Tedisco. No one offered any specific reason for supporting Tedisco.
Asked how she ended up several hundred miles from the city working on a Republican Congressional campaign, she said a "fixer" helped set her up with the opportunity.
National Black Republican Council president Fred Brown, who headed the Bronx GOP, said he coordinated the trip to "get young members of the community involved in different situations." He said about 65 volunteers made the trip this morning.
Some things never change.(Hat tip to John Campanelli)
Update #2:
Polls are closed! Awaiting results.