Can't get enough speculation about who Kerry will select to be his running mate? Me too. I haven't lost my job yet and my wife hasn't left me, but I may need to enter a 12-step program for Veep handicappers. Until then, let's play name that Veep.
For your speculative pleasure, a Veep strategy poll is also included.
The players and their chances as seen through my jaded eyes:
John Edwards
Pros
Youthful good looks, charm, and populist economic message. If not for the perceived Democratic weakness on national security and the continued importance of that issue less than three years removed from 9/11, Edwards may very well have won the nomination. Edwards wowed the pundits with his ability to enchant audiences and the potential strength of old-school Democrat work vs. wealth theme. Edwards vitality and ability to stay on message would be a clear plus.
Cons
Youthful good looks and populist economic message. While his lack of experience will not likely hurt him as VP as much as it did running for the top half of the ticket, the fact that Edwards' limited experience is as a Senator doesn't help Kerry contend with the perception that his would be an administration of Washington insiders. Edwards' flirtation with protectionism will also draw flak. Kerry must walk a fine line criticizing Bush on the loss of jobs overseas without giving Rove ammunition for suggesting that he's against free trade. It's questionable whether Edwards' presence as VP would be enough to put North Carolina, or any southern state, in Kerry's electoral column.
Chance: 25%
Mark Warner
Pros
Whereas Bush beat Gore by a daunting 13% in North Carolina, he carried Virginia by only 8%. When he assumed the Governor's office, Warner was facing a budget crisis similar to what a Kerry administration would have to contend with--irresponsible tax cutting (in Virginia's case, the elimination of the car tax) left the government under-funded to deal with the recession. Warner has generally received praise for identifying ways to cut costs as well as for framing the debate with the Republican-controlled legislature over his proposed tax increases and reform as crucial to maintaining Virginia's bond rating.
Warner would be a safe choice. A practitioner of Clintonian triangulation politics without Clinton's controversy, Warner would neither embarrass nor steal the limelight from Kerry. If not for his somewhat acne-scarred complexion, Warner looks and sounds like he's cast for the part. From observing Warner and Kerry interacting, such as at the post-Virginia primary victory speech, they seem to have good chemistry and genuine mutual admiration.
Cons
Although Warner is term-limited, he's less than halfway through that term. Not well known outside of Virginia, and lacking a southern accent, it's unlikely Warner would boost the ticket's appeal in other southern states.
Chance: 20%
Tom Vilsack
Pros
He's a popular Midwestern governor, which would give Kerry both geographic and governmental balance. His presence would almost lock up Iowa, which otherwise is likely to be very close, and he may help in another state that Gore barely won that Kerry needs to hold onto--Minnesota. Vilsack has indicated that he doesn't plan on running for another term in 2006.
Cons
He's not well known outside of Iowa.
Chance: 15%
Wesley Clark
Pros
Kerry/Clark served with distinction in war. Bush/Cheney avoided serving in war, but were quick to send others to war. The good soldier, Clark wouldn't overshadow Kerry.
Cons
As demonstrated in the primaries, Clark isn't an adept campaigner, and may in fact be one of the few prominent Democrats who makes even Kerry sound exiting.
Chance: 10%
Longshots (in order of likelihood)
Dick Gephardt
Dick Gephardt would deliver Missouri, which, if every other state remained the same color, would put Kerry/Gephardt in the White House. Or at least so goes the logic of those suggesting Gephardt is a wise or likely VP selection. The flaws with that equation are that Gephardt's popularity in Missouri is mostly limited to his St. Louis district, and Gephardt has high negatives with both the Democratic base as well as with those who perceive him as a borderline protectionist.
Bob Graham
Has served as both Governor and Senator from Florida. Former Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee--the work of the intelligence community has perhaps never been so closely scrutinized during a presidential election as it will be this year, particularly when the 9/11 Commission's report is released in July. Doubts about Graham's health and his inability to garner support in the primaries hurt his chances. As with Dick Gephardt, there's the sense that Graham's time has passed--this is third election that he's been touted as a possible VP.
Bill Richardson
Much has been written about increasing importance of the Hispanic vote in the eyes of both parties. Richardson would not only likely secure New Mexico, but also potentially tip the balance in Kerry's favor in Colorado and Arizona. Richardson also comes with an impressively diverse government resume--Representative, internationally respected diplomat, Secretary of Energy, and now popular Governor. However, Richardson's tenure as Energy Secretary was marked by controversy, most notably the alleged Chinese espionage of nuclear secrets. Richardson has also repeatedly said he will not serve as VP. Chance that Richardson will change his mind should Kerry tap him: 7%.
Mary Landrieu
Her winning the December 2002 Senate runoff election gave the Democratic Party cause for hope after the losses of the month before, showing that the national GOP machine could be beaten in a red state. Other than Florida and perhaps Virginia or North Carolina, Louisiana may be one of the only chinks in Bush's southern armor. Being attractive and vibrant would help offset Kerry's somewhat dour countenance. But being relatively young and attractive, especially as a woman, may actually work against Landrieu. Voters may not think she has what it takes in this time of terrorism and national insecurity. She's a Louisiana politician, which means she's practically guilty until proven innocent.
Max Cleland
Picking the one-term former Senator from Georgia would be a bold shot across the bow of battleship Bush, daring Rove to recycle the implied message from the Saxby campaign that a vote for Kerry/Cleland is a vote for Osama. Surely that experience Cleland to campaign better than he did then. The only reason to pick Cleland would be for the symbolic value of veteran sacrifice and how that would play nationwide, since winning Georgia is not a realistic goal.
Evan Bayh
Liberal Oasis places their money on the junior Senator from Indiana, suggesting that picking Bayh makes "too much sense" because he would he alone has the ability to put a 2000 red state into play (good thing they're not betting real money, since their odds don't make sense). One wonders if LO is confusing Indiana with Ohio. The latter has rightly been singled out as pivotal state (Ruy Teixeira going so far as to suggest that the Democrats ought to run as if every state was Ohio), with manufacturing job losses making Bush's 4% victory margin in 2000 look very slim indeed. But in Indiana, Bush crushed Gore by 16%. I think LO seriously overestimates the ability of a VP to boost ticket appeal within a specific state. If Indiana is close enough for Bayh to make a difference, then Kerry will be on his way to landslide, making the targeting of Indiana unnecessary. The notion that Bayh would substantially help Kerry in Ohio is even more suspect. As a DLC darling, picking Bayh would also risk dimming the energized base. I'm sure Kerry remembers the cold reception that Joe Lieberman received throughout the early campaign.
The Field
To include: Howard Dean--too much contrast, bad blood, and baggage; Robert Rubin--while no doubt beneficial for raising Wall Street campaign contributions, Rubin has neither held elective office nor does he possess a political leader's personality; Bill Nelson--too inexperienced and unknown for a congressman, even for one from Florida; John Breaux--if Kerry picks a Louisiana Democrat, Landrieu has got more going for her and less going against her than the controversial conservative, Breaux.
Fuhgedaboutit: Hillary or Bill Clinton; Al Gore; John McCain.
TNR gives a good account of three different Veep picking strategies: compensation, magnification, and targeting a state. I would add to that a fourth strategy--targeting a specific demographic group.
NOTE:
This is cross-posted on Daily News Online and on my blog.