By most accounts, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's recent departure to meet with Russian diplomats and economic leaders is naturally in line with what everyone already knows - that Russia, China, and Iran have warmed diplomatic relations in recent years. It may be simply a diplomacy visit, nothing more. But, given the current and recent events, not only in Iran, but in the global power structure as it relates to the Middle East, this visit gives me a bit of pause.
Iran is not Somalia, it is not even Tienamen square-China - it is a "key battleground state" in the global economic/political order. On the global stage, Iran matters. This is not directly an Iranian Election Diary, nor is it intended to spread any conspiracy theories. Rather, I am hoping to share and discuss the questions that come to mind when I think about this moment in history as Iran prepares to redefine itself on the global stage. Jumping in..
It would take a scholar well beyond my capacity to accurately summarize Iran's context on the historical political stage, and get it right. I won't pretend to do that, but I do know that in 1953 the US and British intelligence organized a coup d'etat that removed the democratically elected government of Mohammad Mosaddeq after he nationalized the oil industry (and it's profits) in 1951. The coup resulted in the Pro-western "Shah of Iran" (Mohammad Rezā Shāh Pahlavi), who ruled brutally until the Iranian Revolution in 1979. This is not a conspiracy theory, it was an actual conspiracy, and is well documented. And it was a strategic move in the emerging Cold War with the Soviet Union. An interesting note about the Shah's rule is also the role the CIA played at that time in developing his torture methods (which, not accidently, look very similar to Abu Ghraib), but that's another topic.
The 1979 Iranian Revolution was a direct response to the brutal methods of the Shah, and opened the door for the Ayatollah Khomeini to return from exile and become the Supreme Leader of a new theocratic government. The makeup of the Iranian political system is interesting and complicated, and can be found here. For those of you following the current revolution (I believe now that's what it is), it is informative. Importantly, this governmnent and leadership regime is, exceedingly anti-American - as Israel and the United States are the only nations with which Iran has no diplomatic ties.
"This article provides a good desription.. of the love-hate relationship many countries have had with Iran, from, of all places, a German perspective:
The rationale behind the "partner, not foe" approach is apparent. Kinan Jaeger, who teaches political science at the University of Bonn, spelled it out last year in the publicly financed "Der Mittler-Brief," a quarterly newsletter widely read in the German foreign policy community. "Anyone who is capable of bringing Iran to its side," Mr. Jaeger argues, "is not only 'set for life' as far as energy logistics are concerned, but could also face the U.S. in a different way." Iran would through the "attainment of an atom bomb...become a hegemonic power in the Gulf and would be capable of confronting the U.S. in the Gulf region more or less 'as an equal.'"
I think this quote really states the obvious about Iran, why it's so important politically, and how this relates to the convergence of US and international interests. Iran is front and center of a larger debate about American global hegemony (power), which was much less of an issue, in my opinion, before the Bush Administration abused this power in Iraq and, more importantly, before the current global economic meltdown precipitated by the US banking crisis. The United State's perceived right to govern world events is not what it used to be, and this may ultimately relate to how things play out in Iran.
This nearly brings me to the title of my diary (sorry, I'm a geek.. I have to set the stage) and the question of What Ahbaminejad is doing in Russia right now. In recent years, Iran has made extreme progress in diplomatic relations with Russia, China, and to a lesser degree Pakistan and India, via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other forums. This is, basically, half the world - geographically, economically (getting closer every day, anyway), population, military, etc. Any foreign policy/intelligence analyst for the United States, in my view, should get a gigantic, panicked lump in their throat when considering this alliance, especially in light of the way the US is viewed globally now from both a political and an economic perspective. If it's true that we are witnessing the sunset on American Global Hegemony, what does tomorrow look like?
This very interesting article on the SCO has an notable statement by an influential Russian interest group:
"The SCO is evolving into a kind of organization for countries that feel themselves excluded from the global system, who feel victimized by the US-dominated unipolar order," says Alexander Dugin, who heads the right-wing International EurAsian Movement, an influential group of Russian businessmen, intellectuals, and officials. "Now this unipolar world is being shaken to its foundations by economic crisis and imperial retreat, and it's time to define a new project of a multi-polar world."
The term that caught my attention was "imperial retreat".
So, as I think of people in Iran revolting for democracy and Ahbaminejad in Russia, the rapidly changing global economy and power structure, I can't help but to look at various outcomes in Iran from the perspective of the interests of foreign countries like Russia and China. I admit that I'm someone who thinks too much, but the thing I'm thinking a lot about tonight is what if Ahbaminejad enlists the support of a foreign nation in the crackdown, and defeat, of this revolution? What does the United States do? What does the world do?