I have come up with several pet names for the Islamic Republic of Iran throughout the past week. The government of fundamentalist-thugs, by fundamentalist-thugs, and for fundamentalist-thugs. The Sick Man of Asia. The latter of those two best describes this government, which continues to display that it's still stuck in the years between 1979-1989. They have moved even further away from 1999 when student protests were easily crushed. In 1999, Khamenei still had credibility. In 2009, Khamenei sacrificed the credibility of himself, his office, and the entire Islamic Republic of Iran. He has proven that it just doesn't work. By 2019, when the older generation has passed and the youngest generations continue their rise, 2009 will probably seem as far away as 1999 does today.
I stated last week that the Islamic Republic of Iran might be dead. Well, it is certainly dying and that is completely inevitable at this point.
I of course do not know what the actual vote totals were. What I do know is that Ahmadinejad had strong support in the rural areas. I also know that had they not so blatantly cheated, and so obviously over-reached, that they could have probably gotten away with this theft. But everyone seems to know that those results were cooked. Because of how proportional they were or were not? Because of how quickly the votes came in? Because of how the results completely contradicted all polling in ways that made the polls for New Hampshire's 2008 primary look fantastic? Yes, yes, and yes. Because of how the government conducted itself before, during, and after the election? Yes, yes, and yes.
Few options remain for Khamenei, who is an old man with inner demons and a deep stubborn grudge with Mousavi. Even fewer options remain if he continues to see the world through lenses from decades ago. I don't know what the coming weeks will hold, but I do know that after a bloody day of destiny that the cries of "God is great" were stronger, louder, and angrier than any day throughout the past week. I suspect the opposition may use more rallies to mourn those who have fallen. I suspect that the protesters are away of how much power they have in their numbers. Can you imagine the damage that a national strike would have? That is what Mousavi has asked for should he be arrested by the totalitarian authorities.
Of course, even as I write this more cracks continue to appear in the establishment while others deeper. The Speaker of Iran's parliament, who previously denounced the excessive violence used against demonstrators, has said what everyone in the establishment already knows; "a majority of people are of the opinion that the actual election results are different than what was officially announced."
The governments latest moves? They're having state-media call Khamenei "the Father", which is a term that was only used for his predecessor(the actual father of the Islamic Republic). They're trying to paint demonstrators as "terrorists". They're not just twisting and turning the words of our President, Barack Obama, but outright making up statements as they continue to try an obsolete strategy of making the United States of America the enemy of the Iranian people. Of course, these tactics will not work. The worst-kept-secret is out. The state-media will lie to you, the state-sponsored paramilitaries will bloody you, and the very top of the state will only look down at you from his lofty and authoritarian perch without any sense of touch for what is happening in the streets below.
The options that remain for Khamenei include attempts to out-do the Chinese at Tiananmen Square, which may win the battle for the day but will continue the Islamic Republic of Iran on its losing path in its war against the people of Iran. That is, of course, assuming that the non-paramilitaries could ever be willing to begin a wholesale shoot-first slaughter of their fellow countrymen and fellow Muslims.
The Sick Man of Asia is, ironically, being undone by the same forces that brought him to power. Khamenei failed to remember about the pride and resolve of the Iranian people which was used brilliantly to bring down the Shah in 1979. Not even an oppressive regime like Iran's has enough prisons for all of them. The only way he can stop these lower-case-d democrats is by killing as many as possible, and while the security forces of Iran may have enough bullets, the taste for that is held only by the increasingly-despised paramilitaries.
Unfortunately, these paramilitaries are not going to back down. They emulate the stubbornness of their leader. They might manage to hang on throughout the day, the week, the month, or maybe even the year. What they won't manage to do is reverse demographic changes, make people believe the state-media again, make people believe in the Supreme Leader again, or make people think this government has any respect for their opinion.
I continue to wait for word from Qom(don't believe the report about the Assembly of Experts deciding to stick it with Khamenei, it appears to be the opinion of one man claiming to speak for the entire group who's actual head remains actively trying to unseat Khamenei). I also continue to keep an eye out for any apparent cracks amongst the regular security forces. Finally, I continue to hold out hope that the days and weeks ahead will contain as little bloodshed as possible. Unfortunately in regards to that last hope of mine, I think we all know better.
Update:
As I predicted(because the 2009 opposition playbook is very much the same playbook from 1979), there will be "mourning rallies". Per Lara Setrakian(no relation) of ABC; Ayatollah Montazeri has declared 3 days of mourning.