Using the excellent
http://2.004k.com site, I calculated the average of Bush's horserace performance in every single individual state poll taken so far in the month of October.
Given what we know about the incumbent rule, I predicted EC results based on Bush's average performance in the state polls. In the biggest states, there are as many as 8-10 polls built into the average, so I think this is a pretty accurate reflection of the state of affairs.
Here is Bush's average in the battleground states:
Arizona 50.60
Arkansas 49.67
Colorado 49.29
Florida 46.83
Iowa 46.50
Maine 46.00
Michigan 43.67
Minnesota 44.00
Missouri 50.00
Nevada 51.33
New Hampshire 45.56
New Mexico 45.25
North Carolina 51.00
Ohio 47.00
Oregon 45.00
Pennsylvania 44.75
Washington 44.00
West Virginia 48.00
Wisconsin 45.71
If you give Kerry every state where Bush got 48% or less, he carries FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA, WA, WV, & WI for 316 EVs to 222 for Bush
Drop the analysis to every state where Bush is averaging 47% or less, only WV switches to Bush -- still Kerry 311, 227 for Bush.
Only when you drop the analysis to 46.8% Bush average, do both OH and FL fall out, leaving the EC 264-274 in Bush's favor.
All in a all, a very strong position for Kerry.
