I don't think this is the majority opinion on DKos, but I have to say I'm baffled and startled by those who keep saying "Bush is toast."
Can we come back to reality for a second? Let's review some facts:
- Bush has a $200 million war chest, compared to a Demo candidate emerging depleted from the primaries (527s will help, but ...)
- Bush has a brilliant campaign team. Darth Rove et al are masters at framing the public debate -- and doing the necessary gutter politics behind the scenes.
- Bush has a trunkload of wedge issues to haul out when needed: gay marriage, affirmative action, etc.
- Bush will have Kerry's "nuanced" voting record with which to bash him for "inconsistencies"
- Bush's popularity, while sinking somewhat, is still astonishingly high after months of being battered by Demo primary candidates, and an absolutely dismal domestic AND international situation. How many other presidents would have 50%+ approval ratings in the midst of a foreign policy quagmire and a tanking economy?
Etc. etc.
I'm not being defeatist. I think the Democrats have a good shot in 2004. But it will take very, very, very hard work.
Being cocky and naive is the surest way to four more years of Bush hell.
Just had to get this off my chest ... ;)