Conservative Christine O'Donnell has been building some momentum in her Senate primary bid against Rep. Mike Castle. Castle has a reputation as a moderate, which plays well in heavily Democratic Delaware. Unfortunately, it doesn't necessarily play well in a Republican primary.
Still, O'Donnell's primary was still seen as the longest of long-shots by most observers. Post-Alaska, however, it gets harder to justify writing off teabagger candidates, and Castle is in a bind.
Democrats are sounding increasingly confident they can work out a bipartisan legislative fix to get around a judge's order halting all stem cell research, but in an election year where everything matters, are moderate Republicans really going to go along with the majority party? And might that cost one GOPer his Senate bid?
The two clearest examples are Republican Senate candidates Rep. Mark Kirk (IL) and Rep. Mike Castle (DE), who Democrats told TPM last week they expect to continue to support embryonic stem cell research as they have before.
But Castle is locked in a tough and nasty fight with Christine O'Donnell, a tea party favorite who is looking to become the next conservative insurgent to topple the establishment's pick. With the O'Donnell campaign targeting evangelical voters in advance of a Sept. 14 primary that could have fewer than 50,000 voters, this could be the issue to turn the race.
"This is going to be bigger than Mike Castle had hoped," Jason McGuire, a senior O'Donnell consultant who works to woo evangelical voters, told TPM in an interview. McGuire said the court ruling pushes the stem cell issue to the forefront right as the primary concludes and believes that will help O'Donnell with religious voters.
Even if this legislation gets delayed past the election, the fact that its being formulated puts Castle in a spot. And if he has to vote on it, it gets worse for him. The wingnuts have an excuse to get riled up against him if he supports this research, and if he flips and opposes it, he loses his "moderate" cachet with general election voters.
One other point. I wrote this about Delaware a few weeks ago:
[Democratic candidate Chris] Coons is unknown by 39 percent of the electorate and has plenty of room to grow. And while the political culture in Delaware prevents him from going hard after Castle (civility is important), the state has proven its willingness to oust long-time AND beloved incumbents like Sen. William Roth (of Roth-IRA fame). Roth had served as a statewide federal elected official starting in 1966 until being defeated by current Sen. Tom Carper in 2000 despite being wildly popular -- a Mason-Dixon poll on July 10-12, 2000, found that Roth's favorable/unfavorable ratings were 53/16. Yet he still lost, in large part because of his age and health. Castle is currently 70 years old.
While the Coons camp was likely trying to come up with a tasteful way to attack Castle on his age, the O'Donnell camp isn't going for subtle:
"It's kind of obscene how they've been pimping this 70-year-old bad heart Republican. We just want a fair primary," [O'Donnell's campaign manager] said. "Where does he get his passion from? There aren't enough F-minuses from the NRA Republicans in Delaware. There aren't enough pro-human-cloning Republicans in Delaware."
It's a teabagger campaign, so civility isn't an issue. But Castle's lack of fealty to the crazy Right is, and certainly his age. Will it be enough to oust a generally well-liked statewide-elected Republican in the primary? I wouldn't bet on it, but I'd be just as reluctant to bet against it.
If Castle wins the primary (in two weeks), this is a Republican-favored pickup opportunity. If O'Donnell wins, we'll hold the seat. Keep your fingers crossed. The teabaggers have done so much to keep Democrats in the game this November. But I'm greedy. I want one more big present from them.
Update: Tea Party Express will actively work for O'Donnell.
