Two separate stories from news organizations show that there's more truthiness than truth in the GOP's claim that the Affordable Care Act "kills jobs." First, McClatchy takes a close look at the GOP's sources for the claim.
For instance:
-- The report says that a study by the National Federation of Independent Business, "the nation's largest small business association, found that an employer mandate alone could lead to the elimination of 1.6 million jobs between 2009 and 2014, with 66 percent of those coming from small businesses."
But that study was released on Jan. 28, 2009, well before the law was written. It studied a model, not the law that was enacted eventually, and it was based on a different set of assumptions.
"It's old. We don't use it anymore because it was based on a hypothetical mandate," NFIB spokeswoman Stephanie Cathcart said. While her group still thinks that the law will hurt business job growth, it cites no firm number....
-- The GOP report says: "Economic theory suggests the penalty should ultimately be passed through (as) lower wages (to an employee)," quoting a Congressional Research Service report.
But Republicans chop that sentence short; the CRS version goes on to say that the penalty for not offering coverage "would not be a burden on small business owners."
-- The GOP report says: " 'If firms cannot pass on the cost in lower wages, the higher cost of workers may lead firms to reduce output and the number of workers.' CRS estimates that about one in five employees work for a business that could be negatively impacted by the new employer penalty."
The CRS report does say that, but it also says this, which the GOP report omits:
"(Individuals with lower incomes, however, should be able to receive subsidies in the community-rated pools, which will increase their welfare). For the firm, paying a penalty may be more feasible than providing insurance, especially if their employees are lower income and the wage cannot be lowered below the minimum wage or the burden is too great."
That mitigates the point the GOP quoted, by suggesting that the law has provisions that offset some of its negative impact....
In short, no one knows the economic impact of the law for sure, and most independent experts think that condemning it as a job-killer is hard to justify.
Here's AP's fact check:
WASHINGTON -- Republicans pushing to repeal President Barack Obama's health care overhaul warn that 650,000 jobs will be lost if the law is allowed to stand.
But the widely cited estimate by House GOP leaders is shaky. It's the latest creative use of statistics in the health care debate, which has seen plenty of examples from both sides....
What follows is a story of how statistics get used and abused in Washington.
What CBO actually said is that the impact of the health care law on supply and demand for labor would be small. Most of it would come from people who no longer have to work, or can downshift to less demanding employment, because insurance will be available outside the job.
"The legislation, on net, will reduce the amount of labor used in the economy by a small amount roughly half a percent primarily by reducing the amount of labor that workers choose to supply," budget office number crunchers said in a report from last year.
That's not how it got translated in the new report from Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and other top Republicans.
CBO "has determined that the law will reduce the 'amount of labor used in the economy by roughly half a percent,' an estimate that adds up to roughly 650,000 jobs lost," the GOP version said.
Gone was the caveat that the impact would be small, mainly due to people working less. Added was the estimate of 650,000 jobs lost.
The Republican translation doesn't track, said economist Paul Fronstin of the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute. "People voluntarily working less isn't the same as employers cutting jobs," he explained.
Of course, the CBO just has "opinions" when their numbers don't agree with the GOP's. They came up with that 650K jobs lost figure with some creative math, multiplying the 131 million jobs the country currently has, and multiplying it by the half a percent figure from the CBO to arrive at 650K, and ignored the fact that "most of it would come from people who no longer have to work." They also ignored a recent analysis which found that as many as a 250,000 jobs will be lost if the law is repealed.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics. In this case, you have all three.