Early turnout this year continues to be driven by volunteers wanting to circulate their state’s petitions. Having said that, i can’t explain this week’s turnout in Ohio!
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Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
We began knocking on doors again in Arizona (and Florida) on March 2nd, talking to voters, collecting signatures for the Abortion Ballot Initiative, raising the Democratic banner and collecting data that will help Democratic candidates get voters to the polls in 2024. Hope Springs volunteers have now collected 46,826 verified petitions from valid Arizona voters who live at the address from which they are registered (we match voters with their address to petitions on an ongoing basis).
In Arizona, 498 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in the western and southern suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson. We knocked on 35,756 doors in Arizona and talked to 3,121 voters. 1,957 of those voters answered at least some of the questions on our Issues Survey. We registered 9 new voters and re-registered 49 voters. 183 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 4 voters completed Incident Reports as witnesses to Voter Intimidation in prior elections.
The Economy was the Top Issue in Arizona. Border Security was second. Reproductive Freedom or Rights was third this week.
Biden Approval among the Arizonans we talked to was 47% last Saturday. Disapproval was 9%. Remember that we are knocking on doors of Democrats or unaffiliated voters; we endeavor not to knock on any doors where all voters in the household are Republicans (and will ask for a specific voter when it is a mixed household). We only rarely talk to Republicans given how we cut turf. 18% approved of Sinema, while 35% disapproved. We’ve been asking about the likely Democratic Senate nominee, Ruben Gallego, since Sinema left the Democratic Party; 51% of the voters we talked to on Saturday approved of Gallego. 52% approved of the Governor, Katie Hobbs. 8% disapproved.
In Florida, we continue to knock on doors in Clay, Dade, Monroe, Osceola, Seminole, Volusia and Duval counties. 452 volunteers came out last Saturday, knocked on 33,131 doors and talked to 2,739 voters. 1,761 Issues Surveys were completed, with 7 new voters registered and 34 voters re-registered (all using the Secretary of State website). 152 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 3 voters completed Incident Reports.
Hope Springs volunteers have collected 48,891 verified petitions from valid voters who lived at the address from which they were registered. We match voter data with the voter database for those who sign the petitions our volunteers circulate before submitting them.
The Top Issue in Florida last Saturday was (Rising or High) Prices. Housing and/or Housing Insurance Concerns was second and Crime was cited third most often.
48% of the voters we talked to approved of the job President Biden is doing in Florida (again). 12% disapproved. 11% approved of the job Rick Scott was doing; 34% disapproved. 15% approved of the job Ron DeSantis is doing; 38% disapproved. So incumbents rated better this week.
307 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in the Atlanta suburbs and in southern Georgia Blackbelt counties. We knocked on 22,656 doors and talked to 1,912 voters. 1,231 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on our Issues Survey (also up from the prior week!). We registered 26 new voters and re-registered 36 voters. 88 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 4 voters completed Incident Reports.
The state of the Economy was the Top Issue in Georgia on Saturday. Education was second, some voters mentioned the protests on college campuses. Elections and Electoral Security was third (Trump’s Trial in Atlanta being the foremost reason).
Biden Approval among the Georgians we talked to was 54% last Saturday. Like last year, rises in Biden approval ratings in Georgia tend to be a result of talking to more minority voters. 5% of the voters we talked to disapproved of the president. 27% approved of the Governor, Brian Kemp. 34% disapproved. Kemp support is slowly recovering in the eyes of Democrats and unaffiliated voters in Georgia. At least from the voters we are talking to.
We didn’t canvass this week in Maryland, due to lower temperatures.
We started more than a month earlier in Michigan than last year. 428 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Michigan last Saturday in our first canvass this year. Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 30,302 doors last Saturday and talked to 2,448 voters. 1,559 of those voters answered questions to at least part of the Issues Survey.
(Rising) Prices was the Number 1 Issue in Michigan on Saturday. Concern over Political Stability, both local and state, was second. Conflict in the Middle East and Campus Protests was third.
Biden Approval among the voters we talked to was 52% last Saturday. 7% disapproved of the president. 57% approved of the Governor Whitmer. 4% disapproved.
In Montana, we are not officially canvassing right now. We are cutting turf for the volunteers who want to circulate petitions, of the Democrats who live in their area. This was requested as many Montanans are unaware of their fellow Democrats, especially those voters who are not active or vocal. So far, we have distributed 83 pieces of turf; several volunteers have taken multiple walk lists for their signature gathering efforts.
So far, we have validated or verified the voter status and address of 562 voter signatures in Montana.
In Nevada, 369 volunteers came out to canvass in the Las Vegas area (NV-01 & NV-03) and in the Reno suburbs. We knocked on 26,826 doors and talked to 2,347 voters. 1,485 answered questions on our Issues Survey. We registered 11 new voters and re-registered 27 voters, updating their current address. 79 voters completed Constituent Service Request forms and 3 voters filled out Incident Reports.
Hope Springs volunteers have now collected (to date) 11,064 verified petitions from valid voters for the Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Nevada. We need to collect ~103,000 valid signatures of registered voters in the state by June 26 to get on the ballot.
(Rising) Prices was the Top Issue in Nevada last Saturday, with concerns about layoffs being prominent last Saturday. Housing and Insurance Pricing/ Availability remained second. Reproductive Freedom or Rights remained third. Never seen issues to be so sticky before.
Biden Approval among the voters we talked to was 51% last Saturday. Again, breaking the 50% marker was significant in a Swing State. 9% disapproved of the president. 55% approved of their Senator, Jacky Rosen. But Rosen definitely has higher name recognition than we were finding for Cortez Masto two years ago. 7% disapproved. 21% approved of the Governor, Joe Lombard. 38% disapproved. Lombard is Republican, and much better known in the Las Vegas area.
348 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in North Carolina. We are focusing on the new (NC Republicans gerrymandered the state again this year) North Carolina Congress-ional District map, and, specifically, NC-01, NC-07, NC-09 and NC-13, this year. We knocked on 24,499 doors and talked to 2,146 voters. 1,388 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on our Issues Survey. We registered 31 new voters and re-registered 48 voters, updating their voting addresses. 97 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 3 voters filled out Incident Reports.
(Rising) Prices was the Top Issue in North Carolina on Saturday. Conflict in the Middle East and Campus Protests was second. Education Costs including Student Loans was third.
Biden Approval among the voters we talked to was 48% last Saturday. 12% disapproved of the president. 53% approved of the Governor, Roy Cooper. 9% disapproved.
629 volunteers showed up last Saturday in Ohio to knock on doors in the competitive OH-01, OH-09 and OH-13 Congressional Districts. They knocked on 43,904 doors on Saturday. They talked to 3,793 voters, and 2,370 voters answered questions from at least part of the Issues Survey.
The Economy was the Number 1 issue for the Ohioans we talked to on Saturday. Healthcare and Health Insurance Concerns was the #2 issue voters raised. Crime was third.
Biden’s Job Approval was at 51%; 8% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 57% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Brown was doing while 4% expressed Disapproval. 27% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. DeWine was doing a good job, 25% said they disapproved of the job he was doing.
93 volunteers showed up in Allegheny County in Pennsylvania last Saturday. Weather prevented us from scheduling canvassing in the Philadelphia area. They knocked on 6,547 doors and talked to 578 voters. 375 voters completed questions on our Issues Survey, at least in part.
Economic Uncertainty was the Top Issue in Pennsylvania last Saturday. Immigration was the Second most cited Issue. Reproductive Freedom or Rights was third.
Biden’s Job Approval was at 54%; 6% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 55% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Casey was doing while 5% said they Disapproved. 54% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Shapiro was doing a good job, 7% said they disapproved of the job he was doing.
311 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in Texas. We knocked on 22,609 doors and talked to 1,869 voters. 1,200 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on our Issues Survey. We registered 4 new voters and re-registered 33 voters. 111 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 2 voters completed an Incident Report.
We are canvassing in Texas because of the Senate race. We didn’t canvass there last year but our absence meant that data we collect didn’t make it into VAN last year; volunteers wanted to give Democrats the best possible chance to defeat Ted Cruz — who can argue with that. Democratic candidates need this data, Democratic voters need to get that kind of direct or in person voter contact. So it’s an experiment.
(Rising) Prices were the Top Issue in Texas. Border Security was second and Extremism was third.
Biden Approval among the Texans we talked to was 47% last Saturday. 11% of the voters we talked to disapproved of the president. 12% of the voters voiced approval of Ted Cruz; 39% disapproved. We have also been asking about job approval of Colin Allred, the Democrat running against Ted Cruz. 38% of the voters we talked to approved of the job he’s been doing. 12% approved of the Governor, Greg Abbot. 46% disapproved. Abbott does seem to be a character is evokes public opinion.
But these are the kinds of notes that volunteers take and organizers fed into VAN. Democratic candidates will be able to use this information in the Fall. This is the benefit of using voter-led voter contact.
374 volunteers came out for our kick-off canvass in Wisconsin in Milwaukee (where we are canvassing in African-American wards) and its suburbs (the WOW counties), as well as Kenosha, Waukesha and Dane counties. Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 26,628 doors and talked to 2,102 voters. 1,365 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.
The Economy was the Top Concern among the Wisconsin voters we talked to on Saturday. Reproductive Freedom or Rights was the second most frequently cited concern. And Concern over the Israeli incursion in Gaza and the related Campus Protests was third, the final of three states where that concern rose to the level of the Top 3 Issues.
Biden’s Approval numbers in Wisconsin was 53% last Saturday. His Disapproval number was 5%. Senator Baldwin’s Job Approval was 57% with 4% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Evers, meanwhile, was 51%; Disapproval was 9% last Saturday.
If you are able to support this kind of intensive grassroots organizing and voter contact, we would certainly appreciate your support:
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We canvass with an Issues Survey that is our jumping off point of conversations with voters. We find this is an easy way to begin the canvass season. All the data we collect will be entered into VAN, the Democratic database.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter. We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs from Field has a hybrid approach. We aren’t interested in competing with regular campaign field organizing. We are in the field before they get there and then move on when the Democratic campaigns start their own intensive field work. Indeed, when we wind up the typical field work by Labor Day, we will encourage all the volunteers working with us to move over to the Senate campaigns in their states (and hope that our field organizers will be hired on by those campaigns). After Labor Day, we will begin organizing our Election Protection Project.
As you can see from the very first question in the Issues Questionnaire, making sure that voters are registered from their current address is a major function of early canvassing. In Florida, given the current laws, we offer up a tablet with the Secretary of State website up so that voters can register or update their information themselves. Part of this is making sure that voters are registered in compliance to the new, confusing and frustrating Election law that is particularly onerous for people who change residences more frequently than normal. But registering new voters (and re-registering existing voters at their current address, in compliance with HAVA) at their door is also critical to our approach. Arizona has a much more friendly voter registration system, including the ability to opt in to permanent early voting. Of course, canvassing is the hard way to do voter registration, but we catch people that our voter registration campaigns can miss because of their emphasis on larger-scale or mass voter registration.
In Florida, though, the new law requires voters to provide, in addition to their date of birth, the last four digits of their Social Security number OR their driver license OR state ID card number to make an address change. Which is par for the course this year, but here’s the part that is likely to stump people who move around. You have to remember which one you provided, because you have to provide the same one every single time you interact with your local Supervisor of Elections, or your request won’t be granted. Supervisors of Elections won’t have access to other databases, so they can only "verify” a request by the information the voter has provided. But this is something we have learned to track so that if the voter registration was not successful, we can go back.
We also ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections. Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections. So far there haven’t been significant changes in the laws but we still ask about fears and experience vis-a-vis elections. Voters who say they have experience voter intimidation or other problems with voting are asked to fill out Incident Reports.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine Republican efforts to throw Democrats off the voter rolls, informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them. There’s a lot of work to be done, but fortunately, the three states that are making it most difficult are also states in which you can knock on doors at least 10 months out of the year. And, with your help, we will be there, getting our people to super-comply with these restrictive provisions.
We are also — this being an election year — adding the Post Cards to New Voters component back into our Voter Outreach, both New Voters we find at their doors as well as New Voters we target in the Voter File.
Our biggest expense is the Voter File. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing literature is our second largest cost. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
But here’s the reality: Identifying Single Issue Voters and Constitutional Amendment supporters and doing GOTV (Get-Out-the-Vote) costs us more money than our regular canvassing because this issue drives volunteer turnout higher and higher and we reach more voters. Which means we have to buy more lit to distribute and other minor expenses (like water for volunteers). We are starting earlier, and staying in the field longer, for this election year. So please:
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
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If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the ActBlue page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!