Guess who's still holding out on his support for the healthcare reform bill?

One day after he single-handedly killed off a provision to expand Medicare, Sen. Joseph Lieberman is still not promising to support the Democratic health reform bill -- though he told reporters Tuesday that he is getting closer.

"I'm getting to the position where I can say what I wanted to say all along, that I'm ready to vote for health care reform," he said. The Connecticut independent said he was pleased with concessions made by Democratic leadership and was hopeful that nothing additional would be added.

Emperor Joe from Aetna is still considering his options, what his next demands will be. Sen. Kennedy's CLASS Act will be next. And of course, there's always still Ben Nelson, who left last night's caucus meeting early, and told reporters that he "remained undecided." Now that he's seen how easy it is to roll Reid and the White House, what's he going to be holding out for? My guess is reducing the Medicaid subsidies, maybe in exchange for giving in on the Stupak abortion language. Or maybe he just holds out for the full Stupak Coathanger amendment, knowing that the path to 60--particularly with Lieberman and Snowe still playing coy--goes through him.

That's the message according to what a reporter told Greg Sargent. Dean is actually not advocating passing nothing, but is pushing for salvaging the better parts of the bill through reconciliation.

Dean said the removal of the Medicare buy-in made the bill not worth supporting, and urged Dem leaders to start over with the process of reconciliation in the interview, which is set to air at 5:50 PM today on Vermont Public Radio, political reporter Bob Kinzel confirms to me.

The gauntlet from Dean — whose voice on health care is well respected among liberals — will energize those on the left who are mobilizing against the bill, and make it tougher for liberals to embrace the emerging proposal. In an excerpt Kinzel gave me, Dean says:

"This is essentially the collapse of health care reform in the United States Senate. Honestly the best thing to do right now is kill the Senate bill, go back to the House, start the reconciliation process, where you only need 51 votes and it would be a much simpler bill."

Kinzel added that Dean essentially said that if Democratic leaders cave into Joe Lieberman right now they’ll be left with a bill that’s not worth supporting.

A much simpler bill retaining the critical assistance portions of the bill, the Medicaid expansion and subsidies are the morally critical things to pass at this point. The insurance reforms matter, but are still not a silver bullet. The insurance companies can still impose annual limits. There's nothing in that will actually make insurance companies hold down premium costs.

Passing just the assistance parts of the bill wouldn't be reform, either, but it also wouldn't allow the White House and Congress to say they'd finished reform and close the door on it.

Update: More discussion in bink's diary.

• Those crazy kids at Fox News are at it again:

  Now, with its Republican-inspired “Where are the jobs?” campaign in full swing, Fox has gone “on the job hunt” with a “new” idea for increasing employment: cutting the minimum wage. Jumping off from an op-ed by Washington Post editorial board member Charles Lane, Fox yesterday ran a handful of segments on the same basic premise — cutting the minimum wage may be the answer to the jobs dilemma.

• Republicans are trying another delaying tactic on health care reform:

  Unhappy with all the recent tweaks to the Senate’s health care reform legislation, three top Republicans are asking the Congressional Budget Office to re-score the entire bill.

  Yes, that's what they're unhappy about -- the tweaks.

• Top Republicans -- what one might call the cream of the crap -- once again show that they are nothing but soulless, partisan assholes:

  House Minority Leader John Boehner said Tuesday that the Obama administration’s plan to move some Guantanamo detainees to Illinois shows that the White House "must've forgotten" about the Americans who died on Sept. 11.

  "I think the administration wasn't around for 9/11," Boehner said after emerging from a weekly meeting with House Republicans.   [...]

  n the Senate, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) also expressed disapproval of the Illinois plan.

  “The American people and a bipartisan majority of the Congress have already rejected bringing terrorists to U.S. soil for long-term detention, and current law prohibits it,” McConnell said in a statement. “The administration has failed to explain how transferring terrorists to Gitmo North will make Americans safer than keeping these terrorists off of our shores in the secure facility in Cuba."

• One more reason to hate the MVA:

  The Maryland Vehicle Administration (MVA) is currently considering an update to their policy regarding changing the gender marker on a driver's license effective January 1, 2010.

  Current Policy: To change the gender marker, an applicant must provide a physician or psychologist’s report to confirm that the applicant is in active treatment ...

  New Policy: The new policy would require an amended birth certificate. This requires going through the court system ...

  This new policy creates additional hoops and legal fees for transgender Marylanders who are looking to update their driver's license. Having a legal identity document that does not match a person’s gender exposes them to potential risk not just of embarrassment, but of harassment as well.

  A similar change was considered in the past. Due to the fact that the MVA was unable to demonstrate any reasoning behind the change it was halted. There is still no evidence of the need for a policy change, nor is there any requirement in state or federal law to do so.

• CQ Politics has moved Hawaii's 1st District from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic in the wake of Rep. Neil Abercrombie's announced resignation.
• Via The Albany Project, improving poll numbers for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY):

  - In a primary featuring Gillibrand, Thompson, Harold Ford Jr. and Jonathan Tasini, Gillibrand wins with 32 percent of the vote. Thompson is second with 23 percent, Ford nets seven percent of the vote and Tasini is last with three percent. That part of the poll makes it clear that, at least today, Gillibrand is the top of the Democratic crop of candidates. She is the strongest of any of them.

  - In head-to-head matchups with with Gillibrand and two top Republican candidates, Gillibrand fares well. While she would lose to Rudy Giuliani 49 percent to 42 percent, she would defeat George Pataki 46 percent to 43 percent.

  The Gillibrand-Giuliani matchup is especially good for Gillibrand since in October, she was 17 points behind Giuliani. Now, she only trails by seven points 11 months out from the general election and nine months out of the primary.

• If you're making phone call rather than texting, you're not one of the kool kidz, but on the bright side, you're not suffering from "Blackberry thumb."
• California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger isn't a Sarah Palin fan:

  The California governor has become an environmental standard bearer for the Republican party, which is split on the merits of curbing emissions. Sarah Palin, John McCain’s running mate in the 2008 presidential election, has attacked cap and trade and questioned any link between man-made emissions and global warming.

  “You have to ask: what was she trying to accomplish?” said Mr Schwarzenegger. “Is she really interested in this subject or is she interested in her career and in winning the [Republican] nomination [for president]? You have to take all these things with a grain of salt.”

• Matthew Yglesias has a picture of what may be the most god-awful intersection in America. Can your hometown top it?
• From mediabistro.com:

  A third of The New Republic's staff will be let go, FishbowlDC sources have confirmed.

  "I'm still rooting for information myself," said a TNR writer on background."A third of the staff, that's correct."

  It is uncertain at this point whether it is a third of the editorial staff or a third of total staff. The writer added, "I guess this was bound to happen at some point. Everyone's downsizing. Whatever."

• Evacuations are underway in the Philppines:

   Philippines authorities Tuesday started evacuating about 50,000 people living around the island nation's most active volcano after it oozed fiery lava and belched clouds of ash.

  A large-scale eruption was forecast as imminent.

From Chris Cillizza's "The Fix" column:

"I used to buy into the 'Joe's with us more than against us,'" said one prominent Democratic consultant. "Now I think we are weak and should punish him in every possible way."

Cheetos futures surged overnight in the Asian markets, and more than matched those gains in early trading, along with pajama and mom's basement shares.

Once again, your professional political glitterati are forced to admit (anonymously) to the Village Scribes that you morons and shut-ins have been right for years, and they're just now realizing it.

Meanwhile, they continue to dine out on their Conventional Wisdom-driven bullshit, while you sit at home watching "Glee" and the 60 year drive for universal health care goes to hell again.

Happy holidays!

Amanda is right.

The people who are demoralized so much that they check out are probably not the same people writing or reading political blogs.  They’re probably the least political of the bunch, the people who get no pleasure from the game and only want results.  That’s why they’re the most likely to focus their ire on the nebulous "Democrats"---the more in the know you are, the more likely you are to realize that more Democrats are on the side of right than not on this issue, and that it’s a coalition of conservative Democrats and Republicans that are the main obstacle.  It’s the people least interested in the details who are likely to say, "No matter who I vote for, my life doesn’t get any better, so why bother?" We’ve known all along that the greatest danger for Democrats is that they pass a bill so weak that the public at large doesn’t appreciate it.  It’s when the public appreciates legislation that Democrats can really shine, because they can work to protect popular legislation against Republicans.  But in order to do that, they have to pass it.

Pointing this out feels like a threat, and that seems mean, especially when a lot of Democrats are trying really hard to do the right thing.  But it’s not a threat.  It’s just the ugly truth, and it’s better to have it out on the table than to delude ourselves about it.  Few people can make good decisions with less information, and I really don’t think that liberal Democrats, who have a tendency to want to see the best in people and be conciliatory much of the time, are really working in their or our best interests if they don’t understand how much the Democratic majority hangs in the balance if they fail.

In our weekly poll last week, 80 percent of Republicans are definitely or probably going to vote. For Democrats, it was just 55 percent. Those aren't bloggers or political junkies, it's rank and file Democrats, and they're seeing no reason to turn out and vote. Those voters were promised some pretty basic items, and they delivered big for the Democratic Party -- super majorities and a White House landslide. Democrats pissed away their mandate with a series of corporate bailouts, but nothing for main street. The signature Democratic policy item -- health care -- has been hijacked by Lieberman, Lincoln, Baucus, Snowe, and Ben Nelson, to the detriment of pretty much everyone else, all with the full support of a "bipartisan" obsessed White House.

I'm going to vote, and you guys are too. We're not the problem. Heck, in the generic congressional ballot, Democrats still have a decent lead, 37-33. The problem are the marginally engaged Democrats, and without them, we're going to get creamed next year. According to that latest poll, only 39 percent of 18-29 year olds will definitely or probably vote. 39 percent. And why should they? They're likely to get stuck with an expensive mandate to reward insurance companies by purchasing their overpriced, under-delivering products. African Americans are only 32 percent definitely or probably likely to turn out, and 42 percent for Latinos. While 61 percent of men -- who skew heavily Republican -- are definitely or probably going to turn out, that number is just 51 percent for women -- who skew heavily Democratic.

See the point? No one is arguing that Democrats shouldn't turn out. We're terrified that they won't. And whether they vote or not is dependent on what Democrats can deliver in DC. Right now, it's not much of anything, and if this keeps up, Democrats are in deep shit.

The "let's fix it in conference" idea just lost a lot of steam.

House Democrats can't always get what they want, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told reporters today. But if they spin it right, he said, they just might find they got what they need.

Faced with a likely public option-free health care reform bill from the Senate, Hoyer said House Democrats will vote to move the reform process forward without government-run insurance included....

Though they may have to sacrifice the public option in order to craft a reform package acceptable to the the fickle Senate Democratic coalition, Hoyer said House Democrats still reserve the right to tinker with the carefully-crafted Senate compromise, whatever it may be.

"Just take the Senate bill? That's not gonna happen," Hoyer said. "There are key differences between the Senate proposal and ours and we'll just have to work that out."

It's pretty dangerous to say that without having seen the bill, particularly since the House bill is stronger. And still undetermined is what Nelson's going to extract from Reid on abortion, now that he's seen Reid get rolled by Lieberman.

The first number listed in the CBS/NY Times poll when you look at the survey of the unemployed is Obama's job performance approval at 61%, including 57% on the economy. But there are more important things to come in this detailed look at what the unemployed think.

Roughly half of the respondents described the recession as a hardship that had caused fundamental changes in their lives. Generally, those who have been out of work longer reported experiencing more acute financial and emotional effects.

"I lost my job in March, and from there on, everything went downhill," said Vicky Newton, 38, of Mount Pleasant, Mich., a single mother who had been a customer-service representative in an insurance agency.

"After struggling and struggling and not being able to pay my house payments or my other bills, I finally sucked up my pride," she said in an interview after the poll was conducted. "I got food stamps just to help feed my daughter."

The human side is simply tragic. The NYT invited home videos, posted here, to hear directly from the respondents. Here's a written profile if you can't get video where you are reading:

In the last year, Evan Gutierrez, 29, has gone from administering a church’s good-will fund to applying to one so his family could pay the rent as he continued to look for work.

He had been working at a church and community center in Los Angeles, where he was the music director. He also helped dispense money for the church’s crisis fund. He was forced to leave in December 2008 when the organization’s endowment shrank precipitously in the stock market collapse. He was hired shortly afterward as a music teacher at a charter school, but it suddenly folded in March because of cutbacks in financing.

Naturally, jobs (29%) and the economy (27%) dominate the "what's important" numbers (health care and Afghanistan are next at 6%. This helps give some needed perspective to the health care debate, as the Senate dithers away on reform.)

57% of respondents think this is both a financial and an emotional crisis.

Want some politics with your breakfast? Click the graphic below. George W Bush is most blamed at 26 (Obama is at 3), and by 45-24, respondents answered that Democrats are more likely to create jobs over Republicans. The party ID from the survey is 20-33-38 R-D-I.

That's some Republican resurgence. Note also that among this group, the expectation is for jobs to get better (39) or stay the same (36), not worse (22) and 46% think jobs will come back. (In this survey, 60% of respondents have been out of work for less than 6 months, and 40% more.)

For those of you tearing your hair out over health reform, there are bigger problems in this country than Joe Lieberman's outsized ego. It isn't that he and the rest of the Senate is not helping on health care. It's that they're really not doing much of anything for anyone.

Pitiful:

Just hours after his televised threat to kill the bill, Mr. Lieberman said, he left a meeting with Senate leaders and top White House officials in the office of the majority leader, Harry Reid, more certain than ever that he held all the cards.

"Harry said, ‘We will do what we can do to secure this,’ " Mr. Lieberman recalled. "He said, ‘I have got some work to do with other members of the caucus.’ But he said, ‘My own feeling is we need you to get to 60 and so I am going to do my best.’ "

Before we begin what I suspect will be a furious attempt to rebrand the reported "compromise" (read: capitulation) on health care as the most meaningful piece of progressive legislation since ever, I think Senate Democrats deserve recognition for doing something that most thought would have been impossible--crafting health care legislation that will, ultimately, please no one.

The Democratic base is going to voice strong objections, because instead of taking bold steps in the face of a health care crisis, you allowed a guy that spent 2008 campaigning for a Republican presidential nominee to have unilateral veto power over the legislation (the optics of that aspect of this story could not possibly be worse).

Good luck getting that base to the polls in 2010. Their motivation to keep or expand a Democratic majority looks like it was rendered meaningless.

Worse yet, the months of dithering on the bill accomplished the worst possible scenario: the whiplash effect of raising, and then subsequently lowering, expectations. The neverending litany of mixed messages coming from both the Senate and the White House left the left-of-center Democratic base with false hopes that emanated from the false starts of those entities, who vacillated between bold and contemptibly timid.

The GOP, for what it is worth, was always through with you, despite your numerous attempts to find ways to please them and appeal to them. This will still get scant, if any, Republican votes, no matter how much the bill was neutered in response to their criticism. And they will still, after all this, find ways to call you dangerous socialists about 23,000 times between now and November of 2010.

The "independent voter", meanwhile, has seen the spectacle of the past several months. They have seen Senate Democrats, "led" by their Majority Leader, adopt six different bargaining positions a day, where reports of negotiation (and/or capitulation) were met with an immediate forceful denial from some spokesperson, only to be confirmed within hours.

They have concluded that Democrats cannot govern worth a damn. They may well be right.

So, congratulations, guys. It takes a tremendous amount of skill to singlehandedly imperil a Congressional majority and return bargaining power to a political party that has been spending the last five years circling the drain. Perhaps John Boehner and Mitch McConnell will send you a "thank you" card.

Well, that didn't take long:

A trickle of Dem retirements, a wave of bad polling numbers and a torrent of negative news stories about the political climate all have Dems worried that the party needs a serious turnaround before the '10 elections -- and that time may be running out.

Now, Dem strategists are urging their members of Congress to be more decisive, and pointing a finger at the WH for forcing an ambitious agenda for which Congress will now have to answer.

"You can't tell people how to run their campaigns, but in order for this not to be 1994, the White House is going to have to understand this is a referendum on Barack Obama," said a senior Dem consultant. Dems face "a political environment that Obama created by pushing an agenda this fast."

One does have to wonder when would have been an acceptable time for the White House to start tackling a sputtering economy, a health care crisis and two wars abroad. You can't help but recall the television show The West Wing where a consultant tries to persuade the White House not to act on some initiative because it is an election year, leading the WH staffer in question to deadpan: "When is it not an election year?"

Not everyone is placing the current political Democratic downturn at the doorstep of the White House. Another anonymous Dem, this one identified as a "leadership aide", lobbed a bomb directly at recalcitrant members of the Democratic caucus:

"Democrats fought 12 years to win back the majority. Now at the first sign of a fight some members want to wave the white flag?" one Dem leadership aide asked incredulously. "It's time to buck up, roll up our sleeves and start slapping Republicans around. They caused all of these problems and the last thing we need to do is put them back in charge."

While the infighting is not helpful, it is certainly telling. It's good to know there are Democratic insiders who think that the political woes of recent vintage come from being too ambitious. Some consultants actually think the only solution is for President Obama to go into hiding for the next year:

"Localizing campaigns doesn't really work when you've had such a national presidential campaign and a national agenda," he said. "I don't care if you voted against everything Barack Obama put forward, you're going to have to swallow it."

"The environment is not going to get that much better," the consultant warned.

If the solution is that the Democrats do absolutely nothing with their Congressional majorities over the next eleven months, then the consultant in question is right: the environment is not going to get better. It will undoubtedly get worse. After all, if there's nothing to be gained from fighting to maintain or expand a Democratic majority, the base will stay home.

Republicans will hate Democratic lawmakers anyway for even proposing reform, and non-affiliated voters will correctly conclude that you are not fit to govern.

Doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for electoral success.

In the House, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

FLOOR SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2009

House Meets At.. 9:00 a.m.: Morning Hour
10:00 a.m.: Legislative Business
First Vote Predicted... 12:00 – 1:00 p.m.
Last Vote Predicted... 3:00 – 4:00 p.m.

"One Minutes"

Suspensions (13 Bills)

1. H.R. 1517 - To allow certain U.S. Customs and Border Protection employees who serve under an overseas limited appointment for at least 2 years, and whose service is rated fully successful or higher throughout that time, to be converted to a permanent appointment in the competitive service (Rep. Engel - Homeland Security)
2. H.R. 3978 - First Responder Anti-Terrorism Training Resources Act (Rep. Rogers (AL) - Homeland Security)
3. H.Res. 894 - Honoring the 50th anniversary of the recording of the album "Kind of Blue" and reaffirming jazz as a national treasure (Rep. Conyers - Judiciary)
4. S. 1472 - Establishing a section within the Criminal Division of the Department of Justice to enforce human rights laws, to make technical and conforming amendments to criminal and immigration laws pertaining to human rights violations (Sen. Durbin - Judiciary)
5. H.Res. 150 - Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that A. Philip Randolph should be recognized for his lifelong leadership and work to end discrimination and secure equal employment and labor opportunities for all Americans (Rep. Rangel - Judiciary)
6. H.R. 1110 - PHONE Act of 2009 (Rep. Scott (VA) - Judiciary)
7. H.Res. 905 - Recognizing the 70th anniversary of the retirement of Justice Louis D. Brandeis from the United States Supreme Court (Rep. Yarmuth - Judiciary)
8. H.R. 4194 - Law Student Clinic Participation Act of 2009 (Rep. Lungren - Judiciary)
9. H.R. 1147 - Local Community Radio Act of 2009 (Rep. Doyle - Energy and Commerce)
10. H.R. 1084 - Commercial Advertisement Loudness Mitigation Act (Rep. Eshoo - Energy and Commerce)
11. H.Res. __ - Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives regarding guidelines for breast cancer screening for women ages 40 to 49 (Rep. Wasserman Schultz - Energy and Commerce)
12. H.R. 3714 - Daniel Pearl Freedom of the Press Act of 2009 (Rep. Schiff - Foreign Affairs)
13. H.R. 2194 - Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act of 2009 (Rep. Berman - Foreign Affairs)

Postponed Suspension Vote (1 Bill):

1. H.Con.Res. 160 - Honoring the American Kennel Club on its 125th anniversary (Rep. Price (NC) - Oversight and Government Reform)

• Conference Reports may be brought up at any time.
• Motions to go to Conference should they become available.
• Possible Motions to Instruct Conferees.

In the Senate, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

Convenes: 10:00am

The Senate will convene at 10:00am and will resume consideration of H.R.3590, Health Care Reform. There will then be 5 hours for debate prior to votes in relation to several amendments and a motion.

The Senate will recess from 12:45pm until 3:15pm to allow for the weekly caucus luncheons.

At approximately 6:00pm, the Senate will proceed to vote in relation to the following items (by unanimous consent each item requires 60-affirmative votes for adoption):

- Baucus amendment (taxes) [PDF]
- Crapo Motion to Commit (taxes) [PDF]
- Dorgan amendment #2793 (Prescription Drug Reimportation) [PDF]
- Lautenberg amendment #3156 (Prescription Drug Reimportation) [PDF]

Not much to add in the way of observation today. The House bides its time with 14 suspensions, some of which they'll likely carry over into tomorrow. The Senate bides its time with... 5 more hours of debate, and then some votes on making the health insurance reform bill worse.

Today's full committee schedule appears below the fold.

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

"Lieberman!"

(With apologies to the dudes who wrote Silver Bells)

City ERs, busy ERs
Come and sit for a while
In the air
There's a feeling of nausea
Children crying
People dying
Thanks to Cigna denials
And on ev'ry street corner you'll hear:

"Lieberman!" "Lieberman!!!"
It's turncoat time in the Senate
What a jerk. Watch him smirk.
"Health care reform? Not today!"

He says "No way"
Then says "Yes way"
Then says "No way" again
As he spins Harry Reid like a dreidel

Hear him bullshit
See him pull shit
This is Joe's big MO
Big Insurance owns him toe to ear

"Lieberman!" "Lieberman!!!"
He'll filibuster 'til doomsday
Obstructing
And lying
Soon let us hope he will pay

Soon let us hope he will paaaaaay!

Cheers and Jeers starts in There's Moreville... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

Your one stop pundit shop.

Eugene Robinson nails Sarah Palin (get your mind out of the gutter):

Sarah Palin is such a cold-eyed skeptic about the Copenhagen summit on climate change that it's no surprise she would call on President Obama not to attend. After all, Obama might join other leaders in acknowledging that warming is a "global challenge." He might entertain "opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions." He might even explore ways to "participate in carbon-trading markets."

Oh, wait. Those quotes aren't from some smug Euro-socialist manifesto. They're from an administrative order Palin signed in September 2007, as governor of Alaska, establishing a "sub-Cabinet" of top state officials to develop a strategy for dealing with climate change.

Anne Applebaum seems to be more disturbed about protesters than she is about climate change.

Jonathan Lippman on children and the criminal justice system:

It costs an estimated $210,000 per year to confine a juvenile in a state residential facility. The return on this investment — which is roughly 10 times the cost of the most expensive community-based intervention — is shockingly poor. The most recent estimates are that 89 percent of boys placed in these facilities go on to commit further crimes.

William McGurn grudgingly admits that the President is a gifted speaker, but wonders if his words will be remembered.

Bret Stephens makes a case for nuclear cooperation between Iran and Venezuela -- and perhaps not wanting to miss his daily dose, tosses in a gratuitous dig at the President in the last line.

Randolph J. May on net neutrality.

Arnaud de Borchgrave says the President hasn't solved all the world's ills yet, so look out, here comes President Petraeus.

Derrick Z. Jackson asks an important question:

The election of lesbian Annise Parker as mayor of Houston, similar to the election last year of African-American Barack Obama as president, was another mature moment of Americans judging individual people of color and homosexuals by the content of their politics. Not yet answered is whether America is ready to let such figures use their office to remediate the economic and education disparities and the civil rights gaps that still bedevil people of color and gay and lesbian people in general.

America is getting better at the individual level. The question is when will that translate into critical progress for the groups Parker and Obama come from.

Jonah Goldberg, apparently upset that his favorite was voted off of "Survivor," goes after reality T.V. -- and not to be outdone by Bret Stephens, he too finds a presidential tie-in.

At the Christian Science Monitor, Gordon Lubold writes, Afghanistan troops timeline gets its first revision:

The full complement of American forces deploying to Afghanistan under President Obama’s new strategy will not arrive until November, a top commander here said.

The new, more gradual timeline means it will take longer for Mr. Obama’s surge of forces to arrive, thus potentially blunting their impact in the surge’s initial phases and leading to a slower drawdown of forces after July 2011. It comes as the military confronts the realities of deploying such a large force into a landlocked country with little in the way of infrastructure.

Originally, the Obama administration had hoped to accelerate the deployment of the 30,000 additional forces in its get-in-and-get-out approach. The idea was to deploy new forces quickly and then begin a gradual withdrawal in July 2011. Senior administration officials said Dec. 1, the day Obama announced his new strategy, that it would take six months for all 30,000 troops to arrive. ...

"The insurgency has grown more violent, more pervasive, and more sophisticated," [chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike] Mullen told reporters. Insurgents have a "dominant influence" in 11 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, he added.

• • • • • • •

jlms qkw has posted the Overnight News Digest.

This evening's Rescue Rangers are grog, HoosierDeb, jennyjem, jlms qkw, and mtperson with shayera editing.

• FightingRegistrar writes a well-researched diary that provides A Brief History of the Filibuster. (mtperson)
• kgosztola recommends an inspirational program worth watching based on a book worth reading; History Channel's "The People Speak": A Much-Needed Lesson in Hope and Change for a Nation's People. (jennyjem)
• sluggahjells learned about James Fry and shares pictures with heartfelt words in A Must See: To The Senate, A Small Country's Plea. (jlms qkw)
• NellaSelim provides this overview of important satellites in NASA's vital role in climate research. (grog)
• Travel to Italy with fake consultant, and learn about war 100 years ago in On The Futility Of War, Part Two, Or, Twelve Times The Charm? P.S. It didn't work any better then than it does now. (jlms qkw)
• BruceMcF looks at the great start the administration has made in developing a long-neglected transportation mode in Sunday Train: Hey Joe, I still want a Sustainable High Speed Train for Christmas. (grog)
• Blog Workers Industrial Union begins a series that is intended to help voters get to know their candidates with Candidate 20 ?s: David Krikorian, OH-02. (jennyjem)
• Ever wonder about a different method of commuting? this is only a test walks us through one in Another Great Week to Bike to Work. (grog)

jotter has High Impact Diaries: December 13, 2009.

virgomusic has Top Comments - The Gravity of Bach Edition.

Enjoy and please promote your own favorite diaries in this open thread.

Rasmussen keeps it streak alive (on more than one level), a pair of national polls paint bad...and good...news for Democrats, one exploratory campaign jumps in while another jumps out, and should we take anything from the fact that one New York pollster isn't even bothering polling Rudy Giuliani anymore? All that, and more, in the Monday edition of the Wrap...

NY-Gov: Dems Now Favored to Hold Gov's Seat, Even With Paterson
It has been quite a while since we were able to use the words "good news", "poll", and "Governor David Paterson" in the same sentence. And while his numbers are still frightful by traditional political standard, his new numbers in the month poll from Siena (PDF File) represent some improvement for the Governor. His favorabilities are up to a poor-but-no-longer-pathetic 36/53, and he now trails potential Democratic primary rival Andrew Cuomo by only forty-four points (67-23). Don't laugh: last month, Cuomo had nearly a sixty point edge (75-16). Meanwhile, Paterson also now leads the only name-brand Republican in the field, sporting a two-point advantage (42-40) over former Congressman Rick Lazio. Cuomo has, not surprisingly, a considerably wider edge (68-22) over Lazio. What was notable in this month's incarnation of the Siena poll is what was missing--they did not poll Rudy Giuliani this month, a sign that his decision to accept a job with the Rio 2016 Olympic Committee (as a security consultant) has actually relegated him to the sidelines in 2010.

IL-Gov/IL-Sen: New Polls Show Clear Frontrunners In Primary Races
With just over seven weeks until the first elections of 2010 (the primary elections in the state of Illinois), the Chicago Tribune decided to take an early reading of the competitive statewide races in the Land of Lincoln. It is worth pointing out that, without exception, the betting favorites are doing fairly well. Alexi Giannoulias leads the competitive Democratic U.S. Senate primary with 31%, followed by both Cheryle Jackson (17%) and David Hoffman (9%). Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Mark Kirk has a nearly insurmountable lead, holding 41% of the vote while his nearest rival (Patrick Hughes, the supposed darling of the tea-party right) is sitting at just 3% of the vote.

By the way, the DSCC, anticipating that Kirk will be the eventual nominee, is having some fun at the Republican's expense. Taking note of the Congressman's flip-flopping...ahem...ideological flexibility, they have launched this rather amusing video.

Meanwhile, over on the gubernatorial side, the high-profile race is the Democratic primary, while the larger and more competitive field seems to reside in the GOP. On the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Pat Quinn has a solid lead over state Comptroller Dan Hynes (49-23). Meanwhile, the Republican primary is a bit more wide open, with the leader (former state Attorney General Jim Ryan) leading at just 26% of the vote. Three other candidates (Andy McKenna, Bill Brady, and Kirk Dillard) all are around the 10% mark, and there are still loads of undecideds. Election day in Illinois for the primaries is on February 2nd.

PA-Gov: Rasmussen Sees GOP Lead in Open Seat Gubernatorial Race
Rasmussen keeps its streak alive with new numbers from the Keystone State: almost cartoonish differences in the favorabilities between Republicans and Democrats, and huge Republican leads in 2010 trial heats. This particular poll has Republican frontrunner Tom Corbett with a double-digit lead over all Democratic comers. State Auditor Jack Wagner comes the closest, trailing Corbett by thirteen points (43-30). Corbett, according to the Ras, has a +41 split in his favorabilities (59-18), while not Democrats score better than a +7 split (Wagner--37/30). Not to sound like a broken record, but this would be yet another poll where Rasmussen sees the race in starkly more amenable terms for Republicans than comparable pollsters.

CO-Gov: Rasmussen Sees GOP Lead In Incumbent-Held Gubernatorial Race
The pro-Republican trend from Rasmussen continues, regardless of the presence of incumbency. In Colorado, Rasmussen gives Republican Scott McInnis an eight-point lead over Governor Bill Ritter (48-40). While most pollsters have had McInnis either tied or barely leading Ritter, it is noteworthy that this is yet another example of Rasmussen tending towards the pessimistic for Democratic candidates or officeholders. Another piece of evidence--32 surveys in 2009 have shown Democrats trailing in the Congressional Ballot test. Twenty-Eight of them have been from Rasmussen, versus just four by any other pollster.

NATIONAL: Dems Lead Generic Ballot, According to Two Pollsters
A pair of new national polls show Democrats hanging on to narrow leads on the generic Congressional ballot for 2010. In the case of the Gallup Poll, the three point Democratic edge (48-45) is pretty good news, since the same pollster had a four-point Republican lead last month. One piece of good news emerging from the Gallup survey: it looks like Democrats are finally staunching some of their bleeding with Independents. According to Gallup, most of the seven-point swing over the last month has come from Independent voters. While the poll should be heartening for Dems who have been accustomed to bad news as of late, it actually should also raise an eyebrow, since virtually no pollsters have seen favorable movement for Democrats on any level in the last four weeks of polling.

More in line with other pollsters were the new national numbers for PPP, which showed Democrats still leading the generic ballot by a couple of points (44-42). While still a Democratic lead, that is an erosion of the Democratic lead since last month, when the blue team was staked to an eight-point edge (46-38). Bear in mind, by the way, that these leads would still be predictive of Republican gains in the House in 2010. Democrats led the GOP by approximately seven points in last year's balloting, and would likely need a lead of around the same margin to avoid shedding at least some seats in the House.

IN OTHER NEWS....

• If you had been following me over at Twitter, you'd already know some of this stuff. Plus, you'd know that Toby Gerhart got robbed for the Heisman. [Note: Steve Singiser now ducks to avoid the rotten fruit hurled from the state of Alabama.]
• CA-Sen/CA-Gov: This morning, an interesting rumor popped up in the Golden State political world, courtesy of Chris Cillizza's The Fix: Tom Campbell, last seen as a moderate ex-Congressman trying to wrest away the Senate seat of Dianne Feinstein, might be flirting with the idea of jettisoning his Gubernatorial bid in favor of challenging Barbara Boxer in 2010. In one way, this idea makes a lot of sense: Campbell has no oxygen in the gubernatorial race, where free-spending opponents Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner are liable to self-fund by the millions in their efforts to win the open-seat gubernatorial race. Campbell might be better served in a Senate bid, where the current field is comprised of the hard-right state legislator Chuck DeVore (who is unlikely to be competitive in a general election) and the (thus far) unimpressive campaign of Carly Fiorina. Campbell, with his reputation as a centrist Republican, might have trouble surviving either primary, however.
• NY-Sen: Sometimes creating an exploratory committee does not actually mean that entrance to the race is imminent. Such is the case in the Empire State, where Jon Cooper, the Suffolk County legislator that virtually everyone assumed would be challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, chose to endorse her, instead. Cooper credited his change of heart to a meeting he took with the Senator, from which he emerged favorably impressed. Jonathan Tasini is still challenging Gillibrand, who has spent most of 2009 coalescing Democratic support and snaring key endorsements.
• TX-Gov: The dominoes from November's decision by Houston Mayor Bill White to run for Governor continued today, when iconoclastic figure (and 2006 Independent gubernatorial candidate) Kinky Friedman made the expected announcement that he would forgo the gubernatorial election in 2010. A bit surprising, however, was that Friedman apparently had a fallback position--he will be running for state Agriculture Commissioner, instead.
• KS-03: It is starting to look more and more likely that 2008 Republican nominee Nick Jordan is consolidating a critical mass of support in his bid to be elected to the seat in 2010. One of his potential challengers on the right, state senator Jeff Colyer, instead announced he would not be running for the seat. He, instead, endorsed Jordan, a state senator in his own right who fell in 2008 to Democrat Dennis Moore, who announced his retirement in November.
• IA-03: Leonard Boswell is attracting almost as much attention from the opposing party as Blanche Lincoln (who has, as of last week, eight GOP opponents). Boswell drew his fourth GOP opponent this afternoon, as retired architect Mark Rees is planning a bid to challenge Boswell in this swing-y Des Moines based district. The leading candidates in this district are likely to be state senator Brad Zaun and former ISU Wrestling Coach Jim Gibbons.

Comedy:

While 45% of all South Carolina voters want [Mark] Sanford to resign, only 33% of the 'moral and family values' crowd wants him to.

Which led PPP's Tom Jensen to write:

Where do you think these folks stood on impeaching Bill Clinton? It's clear there is forgiveness for politicians who cheat on their wives and abuse state resources to do so- as long as they're Republicans.