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Dahr Jamail writes—As Climate Disruption Advances, UN Warns: "The Future Is Happening Now." An excerpt:

Each month as I write these dispatches, I shake my head in disbelief at the rapidity at which anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) is occurring. It's as though each month I think, "It can't possibly keep happening at this incredible pace."

But it does.

By late April, the Mauna Loa Observatory, which monitors atmospheric carbon dioxide, recorded an incredible daily reading: 409.3 parts per million. That is a range of atmospheric carbon dioxide content that this planet has not seen for the last 15 million years, and 2016 is poised to see these levels only continue to increase.

Recently, Dr. James Hansen, a former NASA scientist and longtime whistleblower about the impending dangers of ACD, published a paper with several colleagues showing that ACD will push sea level rise into exponential levels by the end of this century. Their paper shows how melting is actually compounding itself, generating dramatically fast increases in both melting and sea level rise. We may well see the current three millimeter per year sea level rise grow to nearly five centimeters by 2056, and continue to increase in a nonlinear fashion.

Scientists in Antarctica are now astounded at the rapidity of the disintegration of the massive Antarctic ice shelves: It turns out the ice in Antarctica is far more fragile and predisposed to melting than was previously believed.

The situation is already dire enough that the conservative UN warned recently, "The future is happening now," and called for more urgent measures to be taken to cut global carbon emissions.

"Many people now think that the problem is solved since we reached a nice agreement in Paris last year ... but the negative side is that we haven't changed our behaviors," Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, told the media recently. [...]

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BLAST FROM THE PAST

At Daily Kos on this date in 2012—Georgia becomes the seventh state to cut off abortions at 20 weeks. No exceptions for rape or incest:

On today’s Kagro in the Morning show: Cr7z creeps us out, again. Annual WHCD bashing-of-the-comedian-they-hired. Greg Dworkin presents competing theories on the GOP Trump crisis. O’Keefe can’t resist the bathroom panic story. #GunFAIL defeats almost-perfect family protection ninjas.

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This morning GLAAD released its annual report on diversity and LGBT representation, measuring the 126 movie releases by the major Hollywood studios in 2015. As part of its classification of material under a “studio responsibility index,” the advocacy group criticized Hollywood for “a lack of substantial LGBT characters in mainstream films,” while also citing an absence of racial diversity in the LGBT characters which do make it to the screen, especially in comparison to the films the studios produced just last year. None of the big studios received a “good” rating from GLAAD, but Paramount, Disney, and Warner Bros. did get hit with “failing” grades.

This is about the third or fourth time in the span of a year I’ve written about controversies which entail arguments about how well, or not so well, a demographic group is portrayed in media. Much debate occurred after the Oscar nominations were announced and no people of color made the cut in almost all of the major categories. And just this past month, two productions were hit with charges of white-washing Asian characters—the upcoming adaptation of Ghost in the Shell and Marvel Studios’ Doctor Strange. The issues surrounding these controversies usually entail how the application of societal stereotypes impact the story and bottom line. A common theme in a lot of these dust-ups is how “whiteness” is considered the de facto norm for marketing purposes, and any deviation from this default is considered a possible threat to the bottom line. Therefore, racial minorities and LGBT characters get to be in the background, the sidekicks, the colorful, sassy friend who makes quips as comic relief, but whose existence is not three-dimensional or intrinsic to the overall plot. On the other hand, there is an argument which says some of this is a “Kobayashi Maru,” where there will be unfortunate implications no matter which choice is made.

But moreover, this is arguably a cycle which uses its own biases to justify a vicious circle. For example, why hire a white actress to portray an Asian character? Because, in the parlance of a devil’s advocate, there are no A-list Asian actresses capable of being a big draw on opening weekend (at least in the North American market). And why is that? Well, maybe because they’re never given a chance, and the powers that be always feel they have to hire a white actress who’s more “bankable.” 

LEADING OFF

● Iceland – legislature (fall)

The massive leak of private offshore financial documents known as the Panama Papers produced an equally massive political earthquake in Iceland after Prime Minister Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson was shown to have undisclosed financial assets. He quickly stepped down amidst the largest anti-government protests in Iceland since the 2008-09 financial crisis hit the country. The governing coalition of Gunnlaugsson's center-right Progressive Party and the right-wing Independence Party agreed to call early elections for the fall instead of waiting until April of next year, when new elections would be required. However, the opposition continues to demand more immediate elections, which every poll since early 2015 shows it would win.

Making this political crisis even more historic is who stands to gain from it. The current center-right government coalition is thoroughly unpopular, but the main center-left Social Democratic Alliance and left-wing Left-Green opposition parties were largely discredited from their disastrous handling of the economic recovery in the wake of the financial crisis. Consequently, the nascent Pirate Party—which you won't be surprised to learn is intensely anti-establishment—has surged in the polls and is well-positioned to lead a new coalition after the next election.

The Pirates, who have small sister parties in other European nations, have proposed a radical experiment in government transparency, direct democracy, digital privacy, and copyright reform—a platform almost perfectly suited to take advantage of the disgust over the Panama Papers revelations. While the Pirates intentionally avoid placing themselves on the left-right political spectrum, many of their other policy planks, such as support for the welfare state and reform of drug laws, put them closer to those on the left. With polls showing their support over 30 percent, the Pirates would easily have the numbers to form a coalition with one or both of the two left-leaning opposition parties, meaning Iceland could be in for a dramatic shift in policy whenever elections eventually take place.

See our earlier full story on Iceland for more extensive details on these developments and what they might mean both domestically and internationally. Needless to say, if it succeeds, Iceland's Pirate Party would be the first of its kind to hold power anywhere.

Over the weekend, ex-Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli announced that he would not run for governor next year. Cuccinelli’s decision undoubtedly comes as a big relief to GOP strategists. Cuccinelli was Team Red’s 2013 nominee, and while he came close to beating Democrat Terry McAuliffe, his extreme socially conservative record and at times weird campaign (remember that half-hour long campaign ad that only a few brave souls dared to watch?) gave McAuliffe a major boost.

However, another Republican close to the Old Dominion’s far-right contingent sounds ready to fill the void. Corey Stewart, the chair of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, tells the Associated Press that he plans to kick off a bid in October. Stewart is Donald Trump’s Virginia campaign chair, and he’s also made a name for himself by bashing undocumented immigrants. Even though Stewart made his announcement around the same time that Cuccinelli made his plans clear, Stewart was not about to defer to the former attorney general: Stewart took the time to accuse Cuccinelli of now being a member of the hated GOP establishment. (Also, why Stewart would announce his 2017 plans in October at the height of the 2016 election cycle is beyond us.)

Two other notable Republicans, ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie and Rep. Rob Whitman, have also made it clear that they intend to run to succeed the termed-out McAuliffe. (Whitman is still seeking re-election to his red House seat this fall.) Gillespie came shockingly close to beating Democratic Sen. Mark Warner in 2014, and plenty of influential Republicans think he’ll be able to beat a less intimidating Democrat next year. However, Republicans will hold a nomination convention rather than a primary to select their standard bearer. Conventions tend to be dominated by delegates who care more about ideological purity than electability, and they’re notoriously difficult to predict.

Let’s talk entropy. You know, that Second Law of Thermodynamics stuff. The law that says that chaos increases over time and not only can you not win, you can’t break even.

In fiction, entropy generally rules the first part of the story. It certainly does in Game of Thrones. When we open, we have our main characters neatly organized in family groups—Starks over here, Lannisters there, etc. But as the story proceeds … entropy. Chaos. 

In Game of Thrones, characters are driven away from each other both physically and emotionally. By the time we open Season 6, it’s been three seasons since one Stark spoke to another. The Lannisters have fared a bit better, though Tyrion is on the far side of the world and a surprising number of people with yellow hair are … indisposed.

But here’s why I bring it up: How do we know when a story is working toward climax? When slowly, slowly, the threads start to pull together.

When entropy starts to reverse.

As of last Friday morning, Arizona’s legislature was still negotiating a budget for fiscal year 2017. They’re doing all kinds of fun stuff, like increasing corporate tax cuts, because the $4 billion hole we’re in due to years of GOP tax cuts isn’t deep enough; whacking away at public education even more, although Arizona has cut education more than any other state, and every poll says people want more money for schools; and adding $5 million for three conservative university “freedom schools” that were seeded with Koch cash, even though the universities did not ask for the money or the right-wing think tanks.

Here’s another stinker that’s not getting much airplay: 

The state budget being debated by the Legislature would take $6 million from court accounts and provide more money only if a bill adding two justices to the Arizona Supreme Court passes.

The proposed cuts would affect jury pay, substance abuse treatment, sex offender and drug treatment programs, and treatment for abused children. Here’s the deal: The judiciary can get the money and other requested funds if the Republican-controlled legislature adds two seats to the five-person Arizona Supreme Court, and Gov. Doug Ducey gets to appoint the new justices.

Arizonans got a taste of the kind of justice Gov. Ducey is looking for when he made his first appointment to the Supreme Court in January: Clint Bolick has worked at the libertarian Goldwater Institute since 2007, where he has filed numerous cases against the state—mostly because elected officials wanted to spend money on children, sick people, and the poor.

It’s true that we’re still a bit behind in catching up with GunFAIL incidents. But does it really matter, when any longtime reader can tell you that these are all just basically the same stories over and over again? Now, that might lead you to ask why I bother continuing with these reports, but to me, a lot of the story is in the fact that people keep making the same basic mistakes over and over again, almost predictably and at a nearly constant rate.

So it shouldn’t surprise you that although this week’s compilation does not cover the week immediately past, during which Patrice Price was shot and killed by her son in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, it nonetheless includes a report of a toddler getting hold of an unsecured gun in the family car, and shooting his mother with it. Because that’s actually the kind of thing that happens every few weeks. Keep in mind that we’re talking about February 20, a full two months ago, and two and a half weeks before Jamie Gilt was shot by her son in Putnam County, Florida.

In other repeating news, we also have an incident in which a 20-year-old man accidentally discharged a gun during a FaceTime video call, killing his 17-year-old friend on February 19. That came just two months since the December death of a Miami man who accidentally shot and killed himself under similar circumstances. And there are just too many incidents to list that fit the pattern of this week’s bathroom GunFAIL.

Our title story this week comes, as is often the case, from Florida. Knowing that obeying gun-free zone signage is for suckers, a dad who surely abides by the good kinds of laws decided to walk his daughter to school with a gun in the pocket of his shorts. Holsters, as we know, are for the kinds of eggheads and safety nerds who would probably be the type to notice things like gun-sized holes in their shorts pockets. Losers! Anyway, for unknown reasons, this dad apparently had no nerve sensitivity in the bodily area around which shorts pockets are generally found, so when his gun fell out of his pocket and onto the ground in the school yard, he took no notice of it. But another parent did. Problem solved, right? No. The custodian who came to retrieve the gun apparently thought a good way to see if it was a real gun or just a pellet gun would be to take it over to the side of the school, away from the kids but next to the giant fuel tanks, and pull the trigger. An all-around good showing for the Gunshine State that day.

I’ll wind things up with this gentle reminder, even though many of you who hate-read GunFAIL don’t need reminding: not all gun enthusiasts are rabid conservatives. There are, after all, many reasons to want to keep a gun around. And even though we like to think that maybe our liberal-leaning, gun-owning friends are smart enough to avoid most of the truly stupid kinds of accidents, if they’re spending lots of time around dangerous toys tools, some number of them are bound to catch a bullet sooner or later. And that’s what happened to Tennessee marriage equality hero Gwen Schablik. Gwen’s even made the pages of Daily Kos before for her activism and leadership. She seems to have recovered and is back in the game as an activist and LGBT community leader, but even making the smart choice to train at a professional facility didn’t keep her entirely out of harm’s way, as she was struck in the back of the head by a ricocheted bullet while shooting at a Knoxville gun range.

Anyway, there’s plenty more where those came from, all to be found below the fold.

For low-wage franchises fighting Seattle's new $15 minimum wage? No luck.

The U.S. Supreme Court will not hear a challenge to Seattle's $15-an-hour minimum wage from franchise owners who say the law discriminates against them by treating them as large businesses.

This was the latest round in the ongoing saga that has been Seattle franchisers' attempts to dodge the new minimum wage. They were unanimously denied a stay by a three-judge panel of the 9th Circuit back in September, itself an appeal of a district ruling a year ago. With the Supreme Court also declining to weigh in, the franchisers will, for now, still be bound by the same fast-track timeline to a $15 wage that the city's other large employers must follow.

Things aren't all sunshine and roses for workers, however. Even as franchisers in Seattle continue to lose in their fight against new living wage laws, Republican-led states are taking proactive steps to ensure large companies aren't held liable if their franchisers break those laws anyway. Just planning ahead, apparently.

The entire rest of this election year is going to be like this. The whole campaign.

"Don't forget. We're like the piggybank that's being robbed. We have the cards. We have a lot of power with China," Trump told an audience in Fort Wayne, Indiana. "When China doesn't want to fix the problem in North Korea, we say, 'Sorry, folks, you gotta fix the problem.' Because we can't continue to allow China to rape our country. And that's what they're doing. It's the greatest theft in the history of the world."

This is Donald Trump in his element. America is going down the tubes, and it's foreigners to blame. Foreigners here in America. Foreigners outside America. We are a righteous national piggybank that the crafty foreigners are stealing from. We are the righteous white folks that the foreigners are coming to rape. It's probably telling that Donald Trump started out complaining that Mexico was "sending us" their rapists, and sees Chinese policy disagreements with the United States as them "raping" America. It seems to be a core theme of xenophobic frothing the world over.

But even though China, in Trump's words, is committing "rape" against the U.S., he isn't mad at the Chinese. On the contrary, he said, he is angry with U.S. leaders for allowing it to do so.

Of course, Donald Trump himself manufactures many of his own conspicuously mediocre Trump-branded products in China, so he would be the precise sort of leader that should get a stern talking-to, by his theoretical standards. He's been blistering in his theories about Apple, and Ford, and why Nabisco opening a plant in Mexico means he'll never eat Oreos again, but you'll pry the income from his imported Trump ties and suits from his cold, dead, too-small hands.

Bernie Sanders has gotten knocked by Democratic partisans for his weak embrace of down ballot races. What kind of “revolution” focuses only on the top? A real one would build a groundswell of support for multiple candidates, up and down the ballot, making it less a cult of personality and more an ideological upswell. God knows the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party could use the reinforcements. 

Which is why it’s so disappointing that Sanders has done so little for candidates down ballot, because the few times he has, it’s been huge.

Sanders endorsed a third candidate, Pramila Jayapal, in Washington’s 7th Congressional District, but she hasn’t announced how much Sanders’ support meant. But with just the two examples above, we see that Sanders’ list can  be used as a movement-building force for good. Half a million is real money! Not to mention those candidates can return to those donors and raise more over the course of the campaign. It’s tragic that this power hasn’t been wielded more regularly, but one can argue that Sanders really had to look out for himself first. His was always a quixotic bid, and he needed every last dime to keep it as close as he did. Fair enough. 

But with the primaries winding down, he’ll be sitting on that list, with a core of supporters that will fight hard for everything Sanders stands for. Well, there are more candidates like Sanders running all over the country, and there’s a bench that needs to be built for 2024. Let’s hope we will see him more forcefully support good Democrats. It makes it far easier to marginalize and get rid off the bad ones.

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is the latest casualty of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s misbegotten mission to block consideration of Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland at any cost. Though Grassley’s still faring better than Ohio’s Rob Portman, his support inside Iowa is eroding, reports Politico:

The new poll, commissioned by the White House-aligned Constitutional Responsibility Project and the League of Conservation Voters, shows that more Iowans still have a favorable view of Grassley than not, with 42 percent of voters having positive feelings towards the senator and 30 percent having negative perceptions of him. 

But those figures, obtained by POLITICO in advance of their release, are a steep dive from the numbers Hart Research Associates — which conducted Monday’s poll — found two years ago. Back then, 60 percent of voters gave Grassley a positive rating and 19 percent had a negative view. […]

According to the figures, one in five voters who said they might otherwise be inclined to support Grassley could be persuaded to vote against the senator because of his Supreme Court stance.

A solid 57 percent of voters in the new poll want Garland to get both a hearing and a vote this year, compared to only 35 percent who favor waiting until next year.

Grassley is among nine GOP senators who will be targeted by a new ad campaign in the coming weeks designed to highlight the GOP’s unpopular blockade of Garland. That should be interesting—Grassley’s always particularly charming when he’s testy.  

Please give $3 to Patty Judge to turn the Senate blue. The future of the Supreme Court depends on it.