I too am enjoying all the latest polls, graphs, and projections (538, Princeton Election Consortium, Pollster). But:
1) Given the absurdity of Trump as a human and a candidate, the margins are not huge. Remember the volatility of the polls from just a few weeks ago. The sensitivity to slight changes in polling is disturbing; see Princeton Trump +2%.
2) Given the number of what-should-be disqualifying statements and behaviors by Trump (the refusal to release taxes, the connections to Russia, the twitter-temperment, the extreme carelessness in statements about nuclear weapons, and the attacks on Mexicans/Muslims/Vets/Obama top my list), it seems clear that there is NOTHING he can do that will disqualify him for a solid 40% of the polled public and the mainstream media.
3) The Media desperately wants and needs a horserace. There is apparently no level of debasement of our political culture that causes the media to refuse to cover him (see Missing Airplane coverage) or most Republicans to break from him.
4) The execrable Julian Assange or some Russian-affiliated people may have more surprises, which will be eagerly amplified by #3.
5) Hillary continues not only to not address a glaring weakness — her email behavior, which as a lifelong Democrat and IT professional I DO consider to be extremely careless (though common, not likely nefarious, and incomparably small to Trump’s flaws). She was on Fox on Sunday (why?) and apparently gave those-that-wish-her-ill more reasons to criticize. She is still vulnerable on this and several other issues.
6) The interaction effect of #3, #4, and #5. For example, this was on CNN this afternoon. It is easy to imagine 3, 4, and 5 interacting to cause a +2% Trump bump (making current race tight) or +3% (Trump wins?).
7) Despite recent favorable court rulings, voter suppression efforts are still prevalent.
8) A significant number of us would have preferred someone other than Hillary for both personal and policy reasons and so we perhaps see and feel her flaws acutely. We recognize her competence, her experience, her intelligence, her glass-ceiling-breaking-achievement, and her grit, but we all have friends, neighbors, relatives, and coworkers who are considering Trump, Johnson, or Stein. It is not just straight/white/male/Christian/x-intersectional privilege that is driving Trump’s support up or Hillary’s unfavorables up.
9) The Senate does not look as favorable as one would hope given how terrible Trump is and how many seats the GOP has to defend.
I would like to see Hillary:
1) Immediately stop insisting on Comey’s statements as validating her honesty. If asked by Fox, Politifact, CNN, anyone on MSNBC trying for fake balance, etc., either deflect or better yet, make a more self-aware positive policy suggestion, perhaps something like: “Yes, I made mistakes and apologized for them. Some lessons Iearned from my mistakes are …. Where I want to go now is to call attention to a major new cybersecurity-for-government initiative I will propose in my first 100 days ….”
2) Break more clearly with Obama on TPP (or better yet, behind the scenes: does Obama really feel like risking his entire legacy by allowing Trump to batter Hillary on TPP all fall? Why not let the new President Clinton, driven by the hard-earned Clinton-Sanders platform, try to negotiate something better?)
3) Hold some sort of media events (press conferences) with a bit of structure (so that they are not entirely about nonsense).
I would like to see us:
1) Create an online, remixable updated of the Daisy ad. Trump’s statements on nuclear weapons, and the outcry from Bruce Blair and John Noonan, should be in every traditional and social media channel.
2) Create a clickable map of Trump’s impact on locales, or best anecdotes, focused on all 50 states, or the battleground states, or at least PA, OH, and FLA.
3) Promise to each other that we are not getting distracted by how good the polls look today.
Would I have rather have her poll numbers or his? Of course hers. And though I supported Bernie for most of the primary season and agree with many of his critiques of Hillary, I am not interested in relitigating the primary: I’m with her because I want all of our dear progressive causes have Hillary, not Trump, as our “starting place on November 9.” But the risk of a Trump presidency, and the fact that even with currently improving numbers the Senate looks to be a tie, suggests Hillary and her campaign, and all of us, need to do more.
