In November of 1994, as voters across the nation were streaming to the polls to issue a verdict on Bill Clinton’s first term as President, voters in DC had a different proposition in front of them. Former Mayor Marion Barry, arrested and jailed in 1989 on charges of drug use and prostitution, had taken advantage of the difficulties of the incumbent Mayor Sharon Pratt to narrowly win the Democratic primary with 46% of the vote.
Barry was widely considered an embarrassment in most political and media circles, but the Democratic nomination in DC tended to be tantamount to election. Bill Clinton had won over 90% in 1992, and even with Barry on the ballot, winning a general election in a city that was 73% African American and home to one of the most liberal white populations in the country was an imposing climb for the Republican Nominee, City Councilor Carol Schwartz.
Ms. Schwartz, an at-large Councilor, would fight a gallant campaign and end up with just under 42% of the vote, the highest by far ever achieved by a Republican since home rule was established. She would be endorsed by every major newspaper in the City, out-spend Barry significantly, and carry all but two wards while making significant inroads in middle class black area. But the results in those two wards, located in Anacostia would go against her by such a margin that it would overwhelm her numbers from the rest of the city.
Why do I bring up the example of an old Mayoral race in Washington DC in the context of South Africa’s Local Polls? Because there are more than a few similarities. When voters went to the polls today, one of their choices was an African National Congress that has failed to provide electricity, power, or jobs to millions seventeen years after coming to power. Whose Leader once said taking a shower could cure AIDs. Whose local government record is a seeming byword for corruption. And whose campaign seems to consist of increasingly more bizarre appeals:
In the latest play at the faith card, ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, (who also happens to be SACP national chairperson), on Sunday told an Apostolic Faith Mission congregation at Cala in the Eastern Cape that they should pray for the ANC to win if they wished to receive services.
Ironically, people were queueing outside in the rain and mud for daily water rations, since they still do not have running water 16 years after first promised to them.
In earlier incidents, President Zuma called on people to vote for the ANC if they wished to go to heaven, claiming a vote for the opposition would land them in hell.
At a Workers' Day rally in Cape Town last week, a pastor - in the presence of President Zuma - told the crowd that Jesus was a communist; the ANC, SACP and Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) formed the Holy Trinity; and that God had anointed Zuma as the head of state.
http://www.leadershiponline.co.za/...
Against the ANC juggernaut, the opposition Democratic Alliance is running on its record. Its record of good government in Cape Town, which resulted in its leader Helen Zille being named world Mayor of the Year. Its record in government in the province of Western Cape, where last year it was the only province to receive its full quota of Federal funds because it was the only one to complete its paperwork on time. And its collection of candidates, many of whom have multiple graduate degrees and come from an array of business backgrounds.
It should be an easy choice – but its not. Just as in DC it seemed like an easy to chose Schwartz over Barry, in South Africa there are other factors in play. For one thing there is the legacy of Apartheid. It is not only an attachment to the ANC due to the history of the struggle which the DA has to contend with. It also has to deal with the fact that its own make-up, being the party of middle-class Whites, Coloreds(mixed race) and Asians, creates a perception problem with many black voters.
In DC many voters objectively knew that Schwartz would be a “better” Mayor in terms of the provision of services and relations with congress. But they also knew that not only as a Republican, but as a wealthy white Republican woman her entire outlook on life, politics, and the city was foreign to them. It was honest, well-intentioned, and determined to make the city a better place, but she was not a candidate designed specifically to appeal to black voters unhappy with the prospect of another Barry Mayoral term.
The Democratic Alliance has much the same problem. Though it has been working hard to run more black faces, like Mmusi Maimane their candidate for Mayor of Johannesburg and Lindiwe Mazibuko, their national spokeswoman, being prominent examples, its membership is overwhelmingly non-black. And this is not a surprise because its voter base is as well. In 2009 it is estimated to have won around 80% of the White vote, and probably 75% of the mixed race and Asian vote, compared to 3-4% of the black vote.
Its leader, Helen Zille, has an impressive record, having been the journalist who revealed the killing of Steven Biko by the Apartheid government, but she is also a wealthy white woman, with all that entails in post-Apartheid politics. She is also the heir to a liberal tradition that seems to believe that Apartheid was horrendous because it involved the government not providing adequate services to blacks. While this was undoubtedly among the Apartheid era government’s flaws, the “you had your fun with the ANC, now put the grown-ups back in charge” aspect to the campaign is apparent. She has been tarred as the "Madam" by ANC attacks, and while she has been better at fighting these sorts of accusations than her predecessor, Tony Leon, some have stuck in the public discourse.
But whatever flaws the opposition suffers from, the ANC is almost assuredly worse.
Having failed to provide minimum services at the local level, the party was wracked by corruption troubles over the last ten years, accusations of a nonsensical AIDs policy, and most recently, by the rise of Julius Malema, a Mugabe-wannabe who is head of the ANC Youth League. Malema spent much of the campaign attacking whites, the opposition, and anyone who disagreed with him, while threatening violence if the ANC lost. With the spectre of Zimbabwe to the north many voters would be forgiven for making unwelcome comparisons.
In Galeshewe Stadium in Kimberley on Saturday, sharing the stage with President Jacob Zuma, ANC Youth League (ANCYL) president Julius Malema once again engaged in his favourite pastime: spewing hate speech against whites. Whipping up a crowd of some 3 000 people, he called on ANC supporters to treat whites as criminals for "stealing" land from black people, which now must be taken without paying them.
It was left to ANC deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe to put out the racial fires on Sunday by saying Malema's statement was based on "wrong logic" and that one could not generalise and call all whites criminals.
All of this points to the idea that the ANC is scared. In the past, as mentioned, the DA has failed to draw more than 2-3% of the black vote, though in 2009 it won 17% overall and the probably 80% or so of the White, Asian, and Mixed Race vote. This time however, reporters have repeatedly mentioned running across black faces at DA events, and black DA supporters, something almost unheard of just two years ago.
Nonetheless, for the reasons stated above, expectations should not be too high for the Democratic Alliance. Even if they break even with middle and upper class black voters, a breakthrough to more than 20% of the black vote would be highly surprising, and a look at recent results shows why:
For comparisons sake:
2006 Local Election Results
African National Congress 66.3%
Democratic Alliance 14.8%
Inkatha Freedom Party 9.1%
Independent Democrats 2.0%
2009 General Election
African National Congress 65.9%
Democratic Alliance 16.7%
Congress of the People 7.4%
Inkatha Freedom Party 4.6%
As can be seen, in neither case was the ANC seriously challenged at the national level. This was a different matter at the local level, where the ANC lost its majority in Cape Town and Helen Zille became Mayor in 2006.
By the same token, the DA won an absolute majority in the Province of Western Cape in 2009.
Both regions however, are ones in which the black African population is in the minority. It remains to be seen how well they can do outside of it. A hopeful sign was two by-elections last year in Cape Town, one of which took place in a Ward without a single white voter. The DA won both races decisively.
Quite a few things have changed since 2009 nationally as well. For one thing, the Congress of the People Party has split in two and all but imploded. Founded by supporters of former President Thabo Mbeki, it has collapsed without access to patronage. With the Inkatha Freedom Party on life-support, and the Independent Democrats having all but merged into the DA(their leader is the current Mayor of Cape Town), for the first time South Africa has a more or less 2-way race.
Secondly, the ANC has increasingly drifted towards internal conflict over racial and economic issues, while at the same time suffering rampant corruption scandals. Archbishop Desmond Tutu abandoned the party two years ago, and their has been steady criticism of its performance in local government.
By contrast, the DA has performed admirably everywhere its been in power. And that has been what they are running on - competence and better service delivery.
The ANC by contrast has been running on race. No serious discussion of services, health, or other policies has been forthcoming, and no major AIDs plans have been spread.
My personal read of the race will be that we will see a result reminiscent of Washington DC in 1994. The Democratic Alliance will enjoy unprecedented success with black voters, but nonetheless fail to break through to the point at which it is a serious challenger for national power. Any serious breakthrough will have to await someone like Mmusi Maimane becoming national leader.
A few places to watch:
Cape Town: The DA has headed a coalition government here since 2007, and won nearly 60% here in 2009. Nonetheless, President Zuma has made winning it back the ANC's top priority. While no one gives the ANC good odds, it will be interesting to see if the DA makes major inroads into townships after four years of improving services. It will provide a good preview of the long-term prospects for the DA.
Pretoria/Tshwane: The DA currently holds 47 out of 152 seats here, so in the event of a national surge they should win. Their candidate for Mayor, Brandon Topham is impressive in terms of resume, but suffers from being white which may limit their breakthrough.
Johannesburg - The big prize. The consensus is that the DA's Mmusi Maimane, a businessman and management consultant, has an uphill climb against (NAME TO BE DETERMINED BY A POST_ELECTION CAUCUS), the ANC candidate. That is right, the ANC has refused to name who they will nominate for Mayor if they hold the city. If voters save the ANC the trouble, it will be a good night for the opposition.
Nelson Mandela Bay - At only 49% Black, any inroads into the Black vote should deliver the city to the opposition.
Rest of Western Cape - If a breakthrough with black voters outside of the urban areas happens it will be here. The DA has run the province for two years, which while not a long time, should have given them a chance to demonstrate that voting for them will not bring Hendrik Verwoerd back to life. If they manage to get to 35% in areas where they won 15% or so last time it will be a promising sign for the future.
Northern Cape - There is a large mixed-race population here that voted for the Independent Democrats. Its unclear if all of them will jump to the DA as their leader did, and will be an interesting sign.
KwaZulu Natal - The Inkatha Freedom party lost badly to the ANC in 2009 after the Zulu Jacob Zuma became President. It will be interesting to see if his appeal has held up.
You can find live results below:
http://www.news24.com/...
While the DA will not win much outside these areas, getting to 30% of the national vote will set up a real race in 2014, especially if the ANC is running on nationalization of the economy by that point.
