This diary looks at the 14 districts in CA that currently send Republicans to DC and the races to flip those seats in the midterms. It is still early in these races and, if there is community interest, there will probably be some updates between now and the actual elections.
This diary places more emphasis than it really should on fundraising results, but there isn’t a lot else to go on this early in the campaign. I live in a deep blue district and haven’t yet actually visited many of these districts recently to see the state of play on the ground. There are almost no polls yet, and even where there are polls, name recognition of challengers is generally too low for the polls to be useful. (One thing that is noticeable going through these races as a group is that there are relatively few ‘traditional’ candidates — state legislators, mayors, and other elected officials running for higher office. Most challengers have never held or run for elective office.)
District 1: This district covers the northeast corner of the state, including Shasta, Modoc, Butte, Siskiyou, etc. At R +11, this very white, very rural district will be a challenge. Six Democrats are taking on the challenge, with attorney Jessica Holcombe seeming to have an early lead in grassroots endorsements and money raised. Environmental activist Marty Walters has less money, but has gained an endorsement from Indivisible Shasta. Incumbent Doug LaMalfa has raised under $350,000, which suggests he’s either planning to retire or confident his district is too red to be hit by a wave.
District 4: Covering the central Sierra region, this spectacular district includes Yosemite, the CA portions of Lake Tahoe, and several National Forests. It also features Republican-friendly demographics, probably the whitest district in the state, and Tom McClintock, one of very few formidable politicians left in the depleted CA GOP. Of five challengers, the early leaders appear to be Jessica Morse and Regina Bateson. Both candidates have some security experience, the State Department for Bateson, DoD and USAID for Morse. Both, especially Morse, have deeper connections to the district than McClintock, who actually lives in a Sacramento suburb some distance away from it.
District 8: This southeastern district covers the Eastern Sierra and most of the Mojave. The incumbent is Paul Cook. RN Marge Doyle appears to be the only active Democrat in the race. Ronald O’Donnell, an unsuccessful candidate for the legislature in 2016, appears to have dropped out — he isn’t filing reports with the FEC. Republican Tim O’Donnell is also challenging Cook for being an insufficiently slavish devotee of Trump. The district is rated R+9.
District 10: This Central Valley district is centered in San Joaquin County, including Modesto, Tracy, and Manteca. With a Cook rating of Even, it’s a very strong pickup opportunity. 8 Democrats have filed for the seat. Josh Harder, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, has a substantial edge in dollars raised. T. J. Cox also has raised significant amounts. The district is listed as a toss-up by Sabato, leans R by Cook.
Update: Cox has changed districts and Dotty Nygard has dropped out. The candidates in this district who have raised at least $100,000 other than Harder are former Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno and nurse Sue Zwahlen. Harder at this time appears to have more cash and endorsements than both combined.
District 21: This district covers most of the San Joaquin Valley, including parts of Kern, Fresno, and Kings counties. At D+5, it’s one of the top pickup opportunities in the country. Emilio Huerta, son of the legendary Dolores Huerta, lost here in 2016, and is so far the only challenger in 2018. The 2016 race was marked by shockingly low voter turnout, with only 130,000 votes for the district, the lowest in the state by a pretty wide margin. In some districts, the losing candidate won more votes than both candidates in the 21st combined. The district is listed as likely R. Since Clinton carried it by 15 points in 2016, this looks like an almost certain win if Democrats can get turnout up to even an average level. However, Huerta, who has run poorly in the past and raised little money in 2017, doesn’t look like an ideal candidate. There are rumors that his mother is using her substantial influence to block other candidates from emerging.
Newsflash: Huerta has withdrawn from the race. T. J. Cox has dropped out of the crowded District 10 primary and is now running in 21. This could potentially be a big break, since it means probably a more effective candidate for this district and a less destructive primary in 10. Cox lives in Fresno, not in either district but actually closer to the 21st than the 10th.
District 22: This district, including Visalia, Tulare, and parts of Fresno, sends the notorious Devin Nunes (R-Kremlin) to Washington, presumably because it beats having him nearby. Fresno Deputy DA Andrew Janz seems to lead the 3 Democratic challengers in both cash and endorsements. With an R+8 rating and slightly more Hispanic than white residents, this district is difficult but certainly winnable. Nunes has close to $4M COH, which will be hard to overcome in a fairly red district.
District 23: Centered in Bakersfield, this is the home district of soon-to-be Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. At R+14, it’s the steepest lift in the state. Three Democrats have come forward to challenge, but they currently have, in total, $5,613 cash on hand, as against McCarthy’s $3,486,000. This is the one red district in the state where it's currently hard to imagine even an epic Democratic wave forcing a change.
District 25: Including Simi Valley, Palmdale, and parts of the San Fernando Valley, this district is centered in the more inland regions of LA County. The partisan tilt of the district is even, and the race is listed as a tossup. With less money on hand than he will need to contest a hard race with expensive media, I wouldn’t be shocked if incumbent Steven Knight joins other Republicans in heading for the exits, but for now he is running. More good news for Team Blue looking to flip this district: recent registration drives have eliminated the traditional Republican edge in total voters, and there is now a narrow Democratic plurality.
Looking to take advantage of the change is Bryan Caforio, who lost to Knight by 6 points in 2016. With strong name recognition, Caforio has picked up early endorsements from gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom, DFA, and several union locals. He has recently released a poll claiming a substantial lead in the primary. His rivals include nonprofit exec Katie Hill, endorsed by Emily’s List, and volcanologist Jess Phoenix.
District 39: This is the first of three districts located in Orange County. While Orange County was once the heartland of Reaganism, changing demographics have weakened the Republican hold, and Clinton carried the county in 2016. Demographically, this district is generally suburban with a nearly equal number of white and Hispanic voters, 28% Asian, and very few blacks. Since Clinton carried the district by 8 points, and incumbent Ed Royce is retiring, this is a very strong pickup opportunity.
That shows in the money race, with the 3 top Democrats having raised a combined $5M. Former teacher Andy Thorburn has the most money and endorsements from Our Revolution and several labor groups. Navy veteran Gilbert Cisneros is almost certainly the wealthiest challenger in the state, perhaps the country, and for an unusual reason: in 2010, he won a $266M lottery jackpot. He has endorsements from Votevets and a number of current and former elected officials, mostly Latino/a. Pediatrician Mai Tran has the support of Emily’s List and has raised about $800K.
On the other side, former Assemblywoman Young Kim has Royce’s endorsement. County Supervisor Shawn Nelson is also running, and several other local pols are reported to be preparing campaigns.
With an incumbent retirement, multiple viable candidates in both parties, an evenly split district, and a jungle primary, the future shape of this race is entirely unpredictable.
District 42: This R+9 district corresponds roughly to the Riverside County section of the Inland Empire. The incumbent is the deservedly obscure Ken Calvert.
The primary is somewhat ugly and definitely strange. Dr Norman Quintero, whose website suggests he may be a bit, well, eccentric, apparently has a record of multiple arrests in other states for stalking and domestic violence. It should be noted that he seems never to have been convicted on any charges. When teacher Julia Peacock put up on Facebook one of his old mug shots he was rather displeased, and claims to have served a cease and desist order, although apparently no such thing exists. Presumably, it was simply a letter demanding she cease and desist, backed up with threats of litigation which would obviously be empty.
Neither candidate has raised enough money to convince they can seriously challenge Calvert, who has over $1M available.
District 45: This R+3 district, which Clinton won by 5 points, includes most of inland Orange County other than Anaheim, which it has a small chunk of, and Fullerton. Demographically, it is unusual for the LA region in that it includes more Asian than Hispanic residents. It is currently listed as lean Republican.
A total of 7 democrats have filed FEC papers. They include former Peace Corps volunteer and Obama aide Brian Forde, UCI Law Professor Katie Porter, who boasts endorsements from DFA, Emily’s List, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren, her faculty rival David Min, and Kia Hamadanchy, a former staffer for Tom Harkin and Sherrod Brown.
District 48: Like 22, this district is currently underrepresented in Congress, because the guy they voted for, Dana Rohrabacher, spends most of his time representing Putin. It covers primarily the coastal section of Orange County.
There are 5 Democrats running, and all have had enough fundraising success to suggest they are at least potentially viable. Real Estate attorney and entrepreneur Harley Rouda has topped $1M, actually outraising the incumbent. Genetic scientist Hans Keirstead is close, with $870,000 raised. Attorney and self-described ‘Reagan Democrat’ Omar Siddiqui is also in the race along with architect Laura Oatman. With a recent endorsement at the CDP Convention, Keirstead seems to be the current frontrunner.
Update: Laura Oatman has dropped out and endorsed Rouda.
District 49: This is another district with a retiring incumbent, Darrell Issa. Once again, the Democratic field is dense — 3 of the 4 major candidates have raked in over $1M apiece. The bad news is that with 2 prominent Red candidates, Assemblyman Rocky Chavez and Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey in the race, there’s a real chance that all those candidates will split the Blue vote and lead to 2 Republicans on the November ballot. The good news is that all three recent polls of this district show that the voter support is there for a Democrat to win in a straight two way race.
Marine vet Doug Applegate, who came very close to beating Issa in 2016, leads Democrats in the polls, although he is the only major candidate under $1 M raised. Sara Jacobs, the largely self-funding granddaughter of a QualComm co-founder, leads the money chase at $1.4 M, but all that money and endorsements from Emily’s List, NOW, Jason Kander, and several members of Congress haven’t gotten her out of single digits in the few polls available. Environmental attorney Mike Levin at $1.24 M is the strongest challenger to Applegate in the polls. Levin has been endorsed by major national groups such as DFA and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, but those endorsements brought a very negative response from some local grassroots groups friendly to Applegate, some of whom have said they will be neutral in November if Levin is nominated.
The divide in the party does seem deep here. A recent candidate forum to discuss a unified approach to flipping the district had all the candidates agreeing to show, then all but Levn dropped out at the last minute.
District 50: This R+11 district is generally safe. But the district is focussed in the sort of suburbs that are turning against Republicans, and incumbent Duncan Hunter has a nagging scandal from investigations of campaign funds diverted to personal uses. His fundraising has been dismal, and flipping the district, probably impossible with a strong incumbent, looks hard but doable this year.
Former Obama Labor Department official Ammar Campa-Najjar is the top fundraiser, running a progressive campaign with backing from Our Revolution. Former SEAL Josh Butner, who may be a better fit for a conservative district with a strong military presence, has quite respectable fundraising numbers, but seems far behind in endorsements, both from outside and local groups.
The Democratic Party recently met in San Diego and made endorsements in the following races:
4: Jessica Morse
8: Marge Doyle
21: Emilio Huerta
22: Andrew Janz
23: Tatianna Matta
42: Julia Peacock
45: Dave Min
48: Hans Keirstead
50: Ammar Campa-Najjar
The endorsement of Mr Min was especially controversial. It passed on a very narrow vote, and other campaigns allege that their staff and volunteers were harassed by Min supporters when they distributed petitions to get a vote on the endorsement from the full convention.
