Dems can push the GOP primary to Trump if we’re up for some mischief. Before you start hyperventilating, know that I’m just floating the idea because it’s fun to bat it around. I’m not convinced one way or the other that primary meddling is wise. That said...
I have made 3 (reasonable) assumptions (reasonable counter-points in parentheses):
Assumption #1: It is good for Dems if Trump wins the primary (The amount of scum he will kick up in the process of a general election would be damaging to the country in the long run)
Assumption #2: Clinton will wrap up the primary early freeing Dems and progressive independents to vote in GOP primaries (It ain’t over ‘til it’s over)
Assumption #3: We can organize to help Trump win without it backfiring in the primary (Mischief might provide a line of attack against Trump a la “See!? They want to face Trump!”)
THE PREMISE
Kos has a great post on Trump’s primary strength at the moment. It seems to me that even if primary voters don’t coalesce around a single candidate, Trump’s bid will die in a smoke filled back room at a brokered GOP convention. Thus, to win he must do it the old fashioned way: win a majority of delegates. Now obviously, the more votes in each state the better but, the most efficient way to push delegates his way is in open primaries (Dems and independents can vote in the GOP primary) that are winner-take-all (WTA).
It gets complicated between district (DD) and at-large (ALD) delegates and some are outright WTA while others are WTA if a candidate wins X% (by state or district, usually 50%). Alternatively, if Trump can keep other candidates below a certain threshold (TH) in many states, he can deny them all a delegate and effectively get a WTA scenario (but that gets harder as candidates drop and anti-Trump vote coalesces — but those states are earlier anyway so the main theory holds). Theoretically we could keep other candidates below the TH or boost Trump over X% required for WTA.
THE MATH
There are 2,472 total delegates. 1,236 for a majority. There are 20 states that are open primaries AND have some version of WTA/TH (see below) and they possess 918 non-RNC delegates. That is 37% of the total. So if Trump can win just 13% (321) from the other states (or 21% of all other delegates) and nab all the WTA/TH/Open delegates, he can win the nomination. He probably won’t win 100% of the WTA/TH/Open delegates, but he probably can win more than 20% of the others, especially since most of those remaining states are just WTA/TH states with closed primaries.
See (en.wikipedia.org/...) for details on state primary rules, they put a helpful table together.
THE STATES
Feb 20th: SC: 47 delegates
March 1st: AL: 47 (20%TH or >50% = WTA); AR: 37 (15%TH & >50% = WTA); GA: 73 (>50% = WTA); MN (caucus): 35 (10%TH or >85% = WTA); TN: 55 (20%TH or >66% = WTA); TX: 152 (20%TH or >50% = WTA); VT: 13 (20%TH or >50% = WTA)
March 8th: MI: 56 (15%TH or >50% = WTA); MS: 37 (15%TH or >50% = WTA)
March 15th: IL: 12 ALD (ALD = WTA); MO: 49 (>50% = WTA); OH: 63
March 19th: VI: 6
March 22nd: AZ: 55
April 5th: WI: 39
April 26th: RI: 16 (10%TH or >67% = WTA)
May 3rd: IN: 54
June 7th: MT: 24; NJ: 48
EXTRAS
If you really wanted to get messy, we’ve got time to re-register GOP for California’s closed June 7th primary and tip the 169 WTA delegates to Trump…that would give him 44% of the total with the WTA/TH/Open states, not counting other closed primaries. In fact, even if Trump doesn’t have enough for a majority by then, it might help force a brokered convention.
By all means, point out any math/state errors. Thanks for reading!
