An Observation About the most Recent Outbreak of Gun Control Support

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Wednesday June 15, 2016 · 12:36 PM PDT

2016/06/15 · 12:36

It has been awhile since I stopped by to rant about something. In this diary I will tell some harsh truths about things the left simply doesn't seem to understand. This time I’m not taking on the right. I am going to try to explain to the left why no amount of sound and fury is going to result in gun control without another more important systemic change.

There is no number of bodies that are going to change the NRA's (and it's core memberships) mind about guns. You could put a pile of dead toddlers killed in mass shootings the size of The Empire State building in front of them and it would not change their beliefs. If you are a Republican and even whisper support for ANY firearms restriction they will ensure that you are primaried. The left likes to point out that background checks have 88% republican support. That doesn't matter because the other 12% is the important part. That's the part that represents core NRA voters and they are active in primaries.

The NRA's core membership votes in Republican primaries at a higher rate than maybe even Evangelicals. They vote and they care about one thing more than anything else - guns. They may not like abortion, immigration, welfare, or any number of other things but that isn't the issue they decide their vote on. In the end the question for them will always be who supports guns the most. Back of the envelope math says this group of voters represents about 5-7% of any republican primary. In terms of policy republican candidates are generally a difference of degrees with no substantial policy differences. If you are a sitting republican you cannot afford to be primaried and know that you have lost 5-7% of your core electorate. No Republican with a desire to be reelected will support or endorse gun control without the NRA seal of approval. Therefore, the NRA has a de facto veto on gun control and failing that who the republican candidate in any given election is going to be.
Due to the way that electoral maps are drawn in a variety of states the Republicans have almost assured themselves election in most US House districts. They aren't afraid of the general election (They are almost guaranteed to win that) - they're afraid of someone running to right of them in a primary and losing there.The only way to change that is to change how electoral district lines are drawn or take over state legislatures.

State legislatures draw the lines and decide who gets to vote in which elections. The electoral districts for these elections also tend to be gerrymandered to be biased to favor republicans. There are a few ways to solve this - Convert voters in rural in suburban areas that are designed to be republican districts, use the ballot initiative process to remove the power to draw electoral lines from the legislature, or change the compostion of congress and the senate by converting the territories to states. Democrats could then win in competitive districts changing the electoral calculus up the ballot.

So at this point make noise about gun control but understand that NOTHING is going to happen until the basic electoral math/map changes. You really want gun control? Then change the map. Until you do nothing changes.

it's Not About The Money.

Fibinachi

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Friday July 11, 2014 · 4:14 PM PDT

2014/07/11 · 16:14

I live in the south, and thusly I have a lot of conservatives in my social network. They share stupid little notes about how awful liberalism is. The current one is this charming little number complaining about the horrors of food stamp abuse. I have had the classic discussion about the numbers, data, information, and statistics. I am done with trying to educate them. I am just going to start calling them out on what its really about.
It's not about what works or whats right. It's about something else. The simple fact is if conservatives gave a shit about the money they would be bitching about the department of defense. They argue that the this thing that helps a HUGE number of people who otherwise would just be hungry is a bad thing because a significantly smaller number of people do a bad thing. That logic is flawed. But it isn't about the money, logic, or reason.

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