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So the consensus among pretty much everyone: pundits, press, snap polls, focus groups, etc. were all that Romney beat Obama pretty handily at last night’s first presidential debate. But how did he do this? I think there were four key factors that led to Romney being perceived as the winner last night:

  • Assertiveness
  • Tossing spaghetti
  • Two-faced Romney
  • Narrowing the discussion

I’ll take these one by one, starting with:

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The media likes to yammer and yawn about how "both sides do it" or that both sides are equally dishonest. However, a simple trip to Politifact - however controversial they are - will show that there really is no comparison between who is more truthful: Obama or Romney.

To begin with, Obama has 392 ratings vs. Romney's 152 (2.5x more) so I think it makes more sense to compare percentages of ratings than absolute numbers of ratings, unless it's clear that such a comparison is significant.

So what are some ways to compare the numbers?

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It looks like Boehner has finally thrown down the gauntlet, and it's for giving Obama an ultimatum: it's either the GOP bill or default.  At least that's the reports from Boehner's GOP caucus conference call over twitter:

The following is a quote of tweets from Lisa Desjardins reporting on the conference call:

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This will has been crossposted on Blue Wave News.

H.R. 2560 - The Cut, Cap, and Balance Act of 2011. That is what most of the discussion in Washington is going to be about today. So what, exactly, does it do? First of all, you can take a look for yourself here, but it isn't necessarily that pretty. Let's take the bill title by title.

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Even though there are already three front page posts about this topic, I thought I would post a copy of a post I made on the McConnell deal that I made on Blue Wave News, partly because I don't think the front page posts are entirely all-encompassing of all the endgames that could go down with this proposal.

So the following is a copy of my post:

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There has been a lot of talk recently about the possibility of Obama using the 14th Amendment to somehow declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional.

I believe this is an incorrect reading of the 14th Amendment, the meaning of which I think is pretty obvious.  However, this doesn't mean there may not be another Constitutional option to avoid a debt ceiling crisis.

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Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 06:24 AM PDT

Lessons to Learn

by FleetAdmiralJ

I know this is hardly the first diary on this, but being one of the ones who had been in a lot of discussions in a lot of the original "techie" diaries in the opening weekend, I thought I would chime in on the whole Weiner thing.

What I observed - even at the time everything was going on - were two important problems about how people operated:

1) People were presenting evidence as being more important as it actually was

2) People were accepting of evidence and treated it as absolute (when it helped their side, anyway)

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There have been a couple high profile diaries on this matter here and here, both of which feature an image analysis supposedly demonstrating that the screenshot of the photo on Rep. Weiner's yfrog page has been tampered with.

However, I think it's pretty easy to show that this evidence isn't evidence at all and should NOT be used as evidence showing fraud.

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Lt. Governor Bill Bolling cast a tie-breaking vote in the State Senate to send a abortion regulation bill to Governor McDonnell, who says he will sign it.

So what does the bill do?  Virginia already required that any facility that performed later-term abortion be regulated as a hospital, one of 25 states to do so.  However, what Virginia is now doing is requiring that any clinic that provides 5 or more first trimester abortions be regulated as a hospital.  Pro-choice activists believe this will shut down 17 of the 21 abortion providers in the state.  Virginia is the first state to force such a requirement on first trimester abortions, though it seems unlikely that it will be the last.

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Tue Feb 15, 2011 at 08:55 AM PST

PPP: Birthers Take Over the GOP

by FleetAdmiralJ

This diary is crossposted at by blog Mad Wombat

According to a new PPP poll released today, birthers now make up a majority of likely GOP voters in 2012.

According to the poll, 51% say they believe Obama was not born in the United States. Only 28% say they think he was, 21% are unsure. That means nearly 3/4 – 72% – of GOP primary voters either believe Obama was not born in the United States or are unsure about the matter. This is nothing short of collective insanity taking over an entire major political party in this nation.

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Before getting into the "updated agenda" part of this diary, I wanted to (maybe not so) quickly go through the exit polling and my interpretation of it.

Yes, the American People really are concerned about what Obama is doing

People here can pooh pooh it all they want, but there are four pretty damning results in the exit polls that show that pressing forward without re-evaluation may not be the wisest choice:

Obama's Policies Will...
Help the Country - 44%
Hurt the Country - 52%

Even if you include everyone who didn't vote for Obama or just didn't vote in 2008, this still means some people who even voted for Obama think his policies are hurting the country (46% in the exit said they voted Obama).

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Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 07:31 PM PDT

Important Questions

by FleetAdmiralJ

I think now that what will ultimately happen on election night is winding down, there are a few questions that are going to be asked and answered over the coming weeks and months:

  1. Who will be the minority leader in the House.  

There were reports that Pelosi didn't want to be minority leader if the Dems lost the house and, frankly, it's often custom I think for the party who loses the majority to elect new leadership anyway.  So who might be the new players in the House on the Dem side?  Does Hoyer stay majority leader, or do the Dems completely clean the leadership house?

Poll

Today has

10%16 votes
11%17 votes
17%26 votes
4%6 votes
6%9 votes
21%31 votes
25%37 votes
3%5 votes

| 147 votes | Vote | Results

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