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Add one more to the list of polls showing Clinton down in the early states. Though it is certainly not as bad as yesterday's Iowa poll in which Obama took the lead. But the new WMUR poll of New Hampshire has Clinton down, though she is still up by double digits.

Full details and analysis of this poll and of other political news here, on Campaign Diaries.

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A new St Petersburg  Times poll from Florida has some interesting numbers, especially in the Republican primary!

Full poll results and analysis here.

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The House Foreign Affairs committee was taking up H. Res. 106 this afternoon on whether to finally recognize the Armenian Genocide. George Bush took the stand this morning to ask House members to reject the measure, arguing it could damage bilateral relations with Turkey.

Full roundup of this bill's news available here, on Campaign Diaries.

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Plenty of analysis of the presidential primaries is being done on this website and by every other political observer. What Romney's Iowa lead mean for his chances in Florida? How much can Edwards hope to gain from a potential win in the Iowa caucuses? But all of this speculation is based on the premise that the states will vote in the order that right now appears most likely: Iowa in early January (probably the 3rd), New Hampshire on the 8th, Nevada on the 14th, Michigan on the 15th, South Carolina on the 19th, and Florida on the 29th. Then, of course, comes the mega-huge tsunami-esque February 5th.

Full analysis at CampaignDiaries.com.

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Survey USA keeps coming out with general election polls pitching major Democrats versus major Republicans, and John Edwards keeps running way ahead of his Democratic rivals. First came news from Alabama and Kentucky. Then came Ohio.

Now, SUSA has released a poll from Missouri!

Full analysis here, on CampaignDiaries.com.

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Few people are paying attention to the 14 gubernatorial races that will be decided in the next 15 months (3 are happening this fall, and the 11 remaining are set for 2008). Yet, these contests will play a major role in deciding who holds control of Congress in the next decade: The governors who will be elected in those 14 states will hold control of redistricting after the next census, and each party wants to be ready for maximal gerrymandering in 2011.


With that in mind, let's rank these races, from the most vulnerable to turnover to the one where the incumbent party feels the safest. It immediately appears that very few of these races are likely to be contested at all, especially the ones that will be decided in 2008. Democrats and Republicans will swap Louisiana and Kentucky this fall, and then fight in only  two-three states next year. A stark contrast to the 2006 cycle.


The first 4 races are listed after the jump. The full rankings and detailed descriptions of all 14 races is available here, on CampaignDiaries.com

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The Republican candidates (and Bill Richardson!) were lined up to speak in front of the NRA, and this afternoon was the much anticipated speech by Giuliani, who had once called the NRA a group of extremists and was a major advocate for curbing gun-rights as the Mayor of NYC. Would Giuliani make a convincing case that he had a change of heart?

But the main news out of the speech was not what Giuliani said, but rather the fact that he received and answered a call from his wife in the middle of speaking!! The NYT article's accompanying picture is actually one with Giuliani talking on the phone.

Full post here.

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Giuliani has been relishing taking on Democratic interests in the past week. But, as we all know, his past record is very different! And old videos of him are surfacing daily. When is this going to start hurting him? When will this finally be used by his rival campaigns?

Full analysis at CampaignDiaries.com

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Rasmussen just came out with polls from New Hampshire, and its first test of the Senate race since Jeanne Shaheen announced she was jumping in the race.

While many polls have shown Shaheen with wide leads, not Rasmussen. He only has her up 48% to 43%.

This is certainly a much smaller lead than we would like to see, and contradicts the notion that the NH race is in the bag.

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Bush had a primetime speech tonight, and he predictably refused to yield an inch to Democrats. Bush saw success in Iraq, and claimed the surge has been working. He announced he would start pulling out troops and get them to pre-surge levels by this summer (though analysts said today that the details of Bush's plan would still maintain troops at a level superior to what they were before the surge).

The speech was followed by a flurry of network coverage. Most of the presidential candidates were lined up for interviews, and pundits were ready for extensive analysis. Here are the highlights!!

Read full report here here, on CampaignDiaries.com

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Thompson's bounce has been felt for a few days now. He caught up or passed Giuliani in national polls, and is threatening him in states like SC or FL. But now comes new insight that Thompson's rise is hurting Romney much more than Giuliani. In fact, Romney is rapidly bleeding his support to Thompson.

Full analysis here, on CampaignDiaries.com

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Today came out news that  Democratic Rep. Woolsey asked anti-war groups to challenge Democrats in primaries. She reportedly said this during a conference call with the Network of Spiritual Progressives.

Said Woolsey, "You folks should go after the Democrats. I'd hate to lose the majority, but I'm telling you, if we don't stand up to our responsibility, maybe that's the lesson to be learned."

Predictably, this has angered Woolsey's fellow Democrats. Many are probably on edge given their voting record, and given the fact that Nancy Pelosi has already attracted a well-known challenger -- Cindy Sheehan. But there is much to say about the base's anger at Democratic inaction.

Full analysis available here.

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