Hurricane Ida Hits Cuba, moving over hot Loop Current to Louisiana coast, 2 models cat 5 at landfall

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Friday August 27, 2021 · 2:10 PM PDT

2021/08/27 · 14:10

Hurricane Ida if forecast to track over a very deep hot Loop Current ring in the Gulf of Mexico south of New Orleans. The official National Hurricane Center forecast is for Ida to be a major category 4 hurricane at landfall, but that may be conservative. The figure above shows an extremely high ocean heat content which is a fuel to the development of the strongest hurricanes.

First and foremost, listen to the National Hurricane Center’s forecasters and your local weather service office and local emergency officials. The intent of this post is to inform you of the extreme potential of Hurricane Ida. This is not a forecast. This is a warning that Ida is already intensifying more rapidly than forecast and that indicates when Ida tracks over the Loop Current after passing over Cuba that all hell could break lose. Models showed that there was moderate shear south of Cuba that should have slowed Ida’s development, but Ida developed rapidly despite the shear. That’s a very bad sign because the shear is forecast to weaken over the Gulf of Mexico to light shear.

The hurricane center was predicting Ida to be a major hurricane with winds of about 120mph (105kts) at landfall, but they just upgraded the forecast to 140mph (120kts) at 5pm EDT. Several models that tend to forecast on the high side now show that Ida will be a category 5 storm at landfall. Those models should be used as evidence that the potential is there for Ida to be an absolutely devastating storm, with the understanding that their intensity forecasts are not reliable.

This morning as the Air Force hurricane hunter plane passed through the center of Ida the central pressure dropped 10mb from the first pass to the fourth pass. That’s a rapid pressure drop.

At 2pm eastern time the NHC upgraded Ida to a hurricane as it passed over Cuba’s Isle of Youth.

Ida rapidly organized as it approached Cuba and the central pressure precipitously dropped during the morning reconnaissance mission by the air force hurricane hunters.

9pm EDT Update: Radar eye is staying intact while passing over Cuba

Hurricane Ida passing over Cuba seen on Cuban radar.

The passage over Cuba does not appear to be disrupting Ida’s structure on radar. Strong organized convection has developed over the Gulf of Mexico north of Cuba. This can be seen well from two Cuban radar sites one east and one west of Ida. Ida is now entering the Gulf of Mexico in favorable condition for intensification over the deep warm waters of the Loop Current.

End 9pm EDT update.

For an excellent technical presentation that will tell you everything you wanted to know but didn’t know how to ask, watch hurricane and typhoon forecaster Levi Cowan’s youtube video from this morning. Levi started as a young prodigy, got his PhD studying hurricanes, and now works at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. He knows his stuff. Ida has become stronger and better organized in the few hours that have passed from when he made the video.

YouTube Video

Since Levi made the video, Ida’s radar signature became much more symmetric indicating the beginning of the process of eye formation. Passage over Cuba will likely disrupt that process, but the passage will be quick. Ida could begin rapidly intensifying soon after passing over Cuba. The sooner the intensification process gets started, the stronger Ida could be at landfall. The main thing holding Ida’s potential intensity at landfall down is the time it will take to intensify.

Cuban Radar loop showing Ida becoming a hurricane near the Isle of Youth

Cuban radar shows Ida becoming symmetric, developing into a hurricane, mid day 27August2021.

The problem for residents of the central Gulf Coast is that there is a very short evacuation window. Residents need to plan for the worst, a category 5 near them while hoping for the best. Conditions will begin to degrade Sunday morning before the expected landfall Sunday night. There may be no way to evacuate on Sunday if the storm is stronger than presently forecast by the NHC. The HMON and HWRF models both show Ida approaching the central Louisiana coast as a category 5 hurricane. The HWRF model is notorious for forecasting intensities that are higher than realized, but when the HWRF and HMON agree on very high intensities, they often get it right.

The HMON hurricane forecasting model predicts that Ida will have category 5 winds of 144 knots as it approaches the central Louisiana coast. The HWRF model also predicts a category 5 hurricane.

Please, everyone in the potentially affected area, go to safety. Follow evacuation orders, but even better, get out ahead of the crowd before the orders are given. This one looks deadly. In the middle of the pandemic you want to get out early. The combination of Delta and Ida will be devastating.

Rainfall Potential for Hurricane Ida 5pmEDT 27August21.

ROC’s diary with list of local resources in Louisiana is here: www.dailykos.com/...

Something Strange is Happening in the Atlantic: Hurricane Elsa Hits Barbados

FishOutofWater for Hurricane Kos

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Friday July 02, 2021 · 10:22 AM PDT

2021/07/02 · 10:22

Tropical storm Elsa becomes a hurricane as 75mph winds hit Barbados. Hurricane Elsa is the earliest 5th tropical storm of any year in the historical record.

Something strange is happening with the weather over the Atlantic ocean. When tropical storm Elsa sped from the open waters of the tropical Atlantic into Barbados sustained hurricane force winds of 74mph (65knots) buffeted the island and Elsa was upgraded to hurricane status. This would be no big deal in September, but Elsa is the earliest fifth tropical storm to form in the Atlantic. Moreover, it formed in the open waters of the Atlantic’s main development region. Conditions are usually unfavorable in this region in July because of wind shear and dry Saharan air air aloft.

#Elsa has been the 1st tropical system of the season to have #ThatLook -- and today it's the 1st time we've ever seen this --a #hurricane in the #satellite era (1960s-present) to form this far east/south (tropical Atlantic) so early in the season pic.twitter.com/7EZJwe9tQj
— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) July 2, 2021

Tropical storm Danny should not have formed at all. The National Hurricane Center pegged it as having a 10% chance of developing into a named storm, but it did. June storms usually form from disturbances in the deep Caribbean or from lows that develop off of frontal boundaries that dive into the Gulf of Mexico or the Gulf Stream region of the Atlantic. Danny formed from instability from a cold upper level disturbance, a weather development normally seen in September or October.

This early summer the subtropical subsidence high pressure areas, such as the Bermuda high and the Pacific high are north of there normal positions. The heat dome that usually forms over the Colorado Plateau in late June was displaced into the Pacific northwest. In effect, the tropics and subtropics have expanded this spring and early summer, with stunning impacts.

I don't usually post imagery of high pressure systems because they're typically less visual 👀 than storms... but this über #ridge aloft has been the product of an epic case of "anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking" 🤓 and is responsible for the historic heat 🌡️ pic.twitter.com/6hLRMnVY2r
— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) June 28, 2021

This Atlantic outlook is giving us flashbacks.#ReserveReady #ReserveResilient pic.twitter.com/AXHgzbTkfr
— Hurricane Hunters (@53rdWRS) June 29, 2021

I just flew from the east coast to the west coast in what for me was record time. We had tail winds over Texas. Typically east to west flights encounter head winds from the west, but not yesterday. There has been a solid polar jet stream for late June and early July, but it’s tighter to the pole. What’s missing has been the high level westerly subtropical jet stream and the high level wind shear that’s normally seen over the Atlantic off the east coast of North America. Elsa is facing very light shear between the low level winds and high level winds. That’s very unusual for early July.

Here are the 11 AM AST Key Messages for Hurricane #Elsa, now crossing the southern Leeward Islands. New watches and warnings issued for portions of Hispaniola and for Jamaica. More info: https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/hugeTWUUbv
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 2, 2021

I just reviewed maps of ocean heat contents of the north Atlantic. The heat content has been very high since 2016. Each year shows variations, but the high heat content has led to elevated tropical storm activity since 2016. July 1 heat contents in 2016, 2020 and 2021 are surprisingly similar but this year there’s a little less heat in the tropics and a little more heat on the north wall of the Gulf Stream on it’s east side. The strong early start to this year’s storm season is not explained by more ocean heat in the tropics than last year or 2016.

It’s too early to tell what impacts Elsa might have on the continental United States and it doesn’t appear to be heading towards Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands. Interactions with Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba are possible. Haiti and Cuba appear to be at greatest risk of a hurricane landfall.

What ever happens with Elsa, it’s time to prepare for another intense hurricane season along the Gulf and east coasts of the United States. Everyone living in the Caribbean needs to be storm ready. Atmospheric conditions have been exceptionally favorable for storm development so far this season. Given the high hurricane activity level we’ve seen since 2016, expect another intense peak of hurricane activity in late August, September and October.

Hurricane Iota Explodes to Category 5 Will Slam Central America Tonight

FishOutofWater for Hurricane Kos

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Monday November 16, 2020 · 6:09 AM PST

2020/11/16 · 06:09

Hurricane Iota explosively intensified to category 5, seen at the crack of dawn in the Caribbean sea off the coast of Nicaragua. High population areas in central America can be identified by city lights. — Hurricane Iota explosively intensified to category 5, seen at the crack of dawn in the Caribbean sea off the coast of Nicaragua. Iota threatens the same areas of central America devastated 2 weeks ago by category 4 hurricane Eta. High population areas in central America can be identified by city lights. Night time and daytime imagery taken at the same time is combined in this Geocolor image.

Iota explosively intensified into a category 5 hurricane overnight in the Caribbean sea offshore of Nicaragua’s mosquito coast. An airforce hurricane hunter plane just measured sustained winds of 165mph in Iota’s southwest eyewall. Hurricane Iota threatens further flooding, mudslides and death to the areas of central America devastated just 2 weeks ago by category 4 hurricane Eta. At least 178 fatalities (with over 100 missing persons) have been attributed to hurricane Eta en.wikipedia.org/… which was the second strongest November hurricane in the Atlantic basin until hurricane Iota. The forecast track of hurricane Iota will take it over the same regions of Nicaragua and Honduras flooded by hurricane Eta, but Iota will then continue westward unlike Eta which curved back into the Caribbean. The flooded land, already devastated by landslides will be prone to further flooding and landslides. The people of Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador, who will face extreme challenges, will need international help after the storm passes.

Hurricane Iota 165mph winds central pressure 920mb (subject to minor corrections). Air force hurricane hunter plane observations as of 9am 20Nov2020. — An Airforce hurricane hunter plane found hurricane Iota’s sustained winds were 165mph and surface pressure in the eye was 920mb (subject to minor adjustments by the NHC).

There have never in recorded history been so many tropical storms in the Atlantic and never has central America been struck by 2 major hurricanes in the month of November. This year’s thirteen hurricanes ties 2005 for the most hurricanes on record. At present, Iota’s top winds are about 10 mph less than the 175 mph top winds of the 1932 Cuba hurricane which was the strongest November hurricane recorded in the Atlantic. The November combination of Eta and Iota is absolutely unprecedented.

Here’s the official NHC 10am UPDATE posted at noon: www.nhc.noaa.gov/...

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 13NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL3120201000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020Iota is a very impressive hurricane, especially for this late in the year, with a distinct, warm eye on satellite images and a rather electrified eyewall from the GOES lightning detector. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum 700-mb flight-winds of about 147 kt, with SFMR values of 140-145 kt, and a central pressure of about 917 mb. A blend of all these data leads to an initial wind speed of 140 kt, making Iota a category 5 hurricane, the latest category 5 on record for the Atlantic basin. A little more strengthening is possible today with fairly light shear and warm waters before Iota makes landfall tonight. Rapid weakening is anticipated over central America, and Iota should dissipate in a couple of days.

This is a catastrophic situation unfolding for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did about two weeks ago.

So the pressure is slightly lower, 917 and the official winds are 160mph expected to increase to 165mph at the next advisory, but recent satellite imagery shows that the intensity may have peaked.

Hurricane Iota track cone forecast. — The official NHC forecast track is for landfall in Nicaragua, tracking into Honduras, then El Salvador by 7am Wednesday. The storm will rapidly weaken over the mountains with very heavy rain and flooding.

end UPDATE

Life in Honduras was already unbearable before the hurricanes for thousands of people seeking refuge from extreme violence, poverty and oppression. Life there will now be untenable for many thousands more and they may be forced to migrate in the middle of a pandemic but first, they will need to survive. Getting food and clean water to people isolated by flooding, landslides and destroyed infrastructure would be a challenge under the best of times. With the lack of American leadership by Donald Trump’s failed administration these poor people will be on their own. Much of central America is a disaster area now but with a quarter of a million U.S. citizens dead of Covid-19 we are barely able to care for ourselves. We can’t even wear masks to protect our families and communities. What happened to us? My God how we have fallen.

Hurricane Dorian: the Good, the Bad & the Ugly

FishOutofWater for Hurricane Kos

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Thursday August 29, 2019 · 10:42 AM PDT

2019/08/29 · 10:42

Hurricane Dorian at 12:30pm EDT or 1:30 Atlantic time. Note the pink Saharan dust and associated dry air coming off of Africa. Hurricane Dorian has been repeatedly weakened by dry air but is now entering a region with more mid-level humidity.

The good news is that Hurricane Dorian passed well east of Puerto Rico as it moved from the Caribbean to the Atlantic. Puerto Rico was unaffected by Dorian. The bad news is that Dorian unexpectedly passed directly over St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands as a minimal category 1 hurricane causing disruption to daily life and moderate damage to island infrastructure. One elderly woman who was in bad health died as the storm passed over the Virgin Islands. viconsortium.com/…

Dorian’s track and intensity has been jumpy up to this time because Dorian has been fighting off the effects of dry Saharan air which can be seen in light pink in the satellite image above of the tropical north Atlantic. The net impact of the disruptions was to weaken Dorian while it was in the Caribbean and allow it to move on a more northerly track than forecast models predicted, taking it out of the Caribbean before it could impact large islands with large populations. This was very good news for the Caribbean.

The ugly news is for Florida. Dorian’s northwards motion will be stopped by a large high pressure area and subtropical ridge that is developing off of the Carolina coast. This is good news for people like me in the hard hit areas of the Carolinas that are not ready for another major storm, but it is very bad news for Florida. Dorian has just passed through an area of moderate wind shear as it entered the Atlantic and briefly weakened, but the pressure is dropping again and sustained winds are back up to 75 knots or about 85 mph. Dorian is entering a region north of the Greater Antilles of warm waters, low wind shear and humid air. The National Hurricane center forecasts Dorian to become a major hurricane as it approaches the main Bahama islands.

Official NHC 5 day forecast cone for Hurricane Dorian. — Note that the Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty covers the whole state of Florida. Landfall in Florida is expected around sunrise on Labor Day Monday. Possible landfall in the main islands of the Bahamas is forecast to be on Sunday morning.

The European model has forecast a more southerly track than the American model, but the latest run of the American model has moved landfall south, closer to the European model. Both models are consistent with the NHC’s forecast of a strong category 3 hurricane at landfall.

The HWRF model predicts that Dorian will rapidly intensify over the next day and will have sustained winds of 130mph in 30 hours. This model sometimes is overly aggressive about intensifying storms, but given the favorable environment and rapidly improving structure on satellite loops, the model may be onto something. If so, this storm could be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas and the coast of Florida. Be prepared.

HWRF model 30 hour forecast for hurricane Dorian made at 1:30 pm edt 29Aug19 for late afternoon August 30, 2019. If this forecast verifies, Dorian could be a strong category 3 hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. The NHC is forecasting a slower rate of development but similar intensity as Dorian approaches the main islands of the Bahamas.

Update 3pm EDT: The latest European model run slows Dorian’s forward progress down over the Bahamas as it takes a dip south. Then it takes a track up the coast of Florida. This is not the final word and the NHC will carefully consider the implications of this new model run. What it means is that the cone of uncertainty is real and we don’t have a precise track forecast.

The latest European model run slows the forward progress of Dorian down and then takes it up the Florida coast. This model run shows the uncertainty of landfall and should not be used as a prediction. Use the official NHC forecast.

11 PM Update: Dorian has intensified to 90 knots or about 105 mph a solid category 2 and the NHC is forecasting Dorian to reach 120 knots a solid category 4 (140 mph) in 72 hours and landfall on the Florida coast at 140 mph. The details of landfall, both time and location are still quite uncertain.

11pm 29Aug19 NHC forecast for hurricane Dorian.

Category 5, Supertyphoon Yutu Devastating Saipan, 180 mph, winds gusting over 200mph

FishOutofWater for Hurricane Kos

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Wednesday October 24, 2018 · 9:00 AM PDT

2018/10/24 · 09:00

Supertyphoon Yutu,180 mph sustained winds, the strongest ever in the Guam to Saipan region of the Northern Marianna islands, is hitting Saipan dead on. — Saipan, a U.S. island, population 50,000, is being slammed by supertyphoon Yutu's 180mph sustained winds with waves over 50 feet high.

Yet another direct strike to U.S. citizens from a catastrophic storm, this time in the Pacific. #Saipan in the very worst part of this ferocious Category 5 equivalent Super #Typhoon. #Yutu pic.twitter.com/jmtZEHUZnG
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) October 24, 2018

Over 50,000 U.S. citizens on the islands of Saipan and Tinian, in the northern Mariannas chain are enduring sustained winds of 180 mph and gusts over 200 mph from supertyphoon Yutu, the strongest storm on record to strike these islands. Yesterday they were preparing for 120 mph winds, which would have been survivable. Yutu rapidly intensified over the past day to an unexpected monster strong category 5. Structures in the northern Mariannas are built to withstand supertyphoons, but Yutu is significantly stronger than any storm to strike this islands in recorded history. Moreover, island topography can intensify wind gusts. Gusts well over 200mph are likely. Downslope wind intensification will cause extreme gusts in the most heavily inhabited parts of Saipan on the western side of the island. The northern side of the storm which is hitting Saipan is the leading edge and thus likely the strongest side. Saipan is getting no breaks. The island Tinian, south of Saipan, is now almost wholly engulfed in Yutu’s eye.

The island of Tinian is now almost entirely within the eye of Cat. 5 Super Typhoon Yutu via @UWCIMSS h/t @wxjerdman pic.twitter.com/G3acuqew3O
— Eric Zerkel (@EricZerkel) October 24, 2018

Tinian is now completely within the eye of Super Typhoon Yutu.

Should be clear with stars visible for a while -- before hell returns.
Last 2-hour satellite loop: https://t.co/AFu8bqeAYX pic.twitter.com/nXw8y50Ql5
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) October 24, 2018

The weather station at Saipan airport stopped reporting wind and pressure after wind gusts exceeded 100mph.

Peak measured gust: 103.6 mph at PGSN (#Saipan Int'l Airport) before wind, pressure data dropped out as eye neared. https://t.co/jBSqm3nEBQ #Yutu (Thx @MLammers86 for mesowest link.) pic.twitter.com/Ws4KnDvDDf
— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) October 24, 2018

Interesting structure of #Yutu in this microwave image from 1506Z. (Credit: Navy NRL) pic.twitter.com/OpKBb5Cyg3
— Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) October 24, 2018

This is a major disaster. This storm is significantly stronger than hurricane Michael. The only good news is that U.S. naval and air facilities on Guam were spared the worst as this storm turned to Saipan. The U.S. will have the capability to provide rapid emergency assistance from bases on Guam.

From Jeff Masters’ blog, population figures for the most affected islands:

The U.S. Northern Mariana Islands is a U.S. commonwealth, separate from the U.S. territory of Guam. Close to two-thirds of residents of the Northern Marianas are U.S. citizens, according to a 2015 report from the commonwealth government. The three main islands are:

Saipan: population 52,263 (2017 estimate)
Tinian: population 3,136 (2010 estimate)
Rota: population 2,477 (2010 estimate)

Buildings at the airport have been wrecked and debris will need to be cleared before airplanes can bring in supplies. The control tower is still standing. Early images and cell phone video clips show absolute devastation.

Some of the devastating images coming in from #Saipan after super typhoon #Yutu slammed the island yesterday. The 1st image shows heavy damage to the airport. 1/2
Ã°ÂÂÂ·: Brian Burnett pic.twitter.com/qgtyCyDUkK
— eweather (@Eweather13) October 25, 2018

Before super typhoon #Yutu hit Saipan, it hit the tiny island of Micronesia. HereÃ¢ÂÂs some video of the terrible damage inflicted there. Wow. So sad. Ã°ÂÂÂ¹:Holly Ashlynn @JimCantore @StephanieAbrams @JenCarfagno @Ginger_Zee @spann pic.twitter.com/8F9Zvx8nuX
— eweather (@Eweather13) October 25, 2018

This has been an extraordinarily active year in the tropics with about twice the normal amount of hurricane energy released in the northern hemisphere. Over the past decade records show that the strongest storms have been growing stronger. This is happening because 90% of the heating caused by increasing greenhouse gas levels has been taken up by the oceans. Because the surface layer of warm water has thickened in the tropical and subtropical oceans, less cool water wells up from below and category 4 and 5 storms become more likely. The U.S. is now suffering from the disastrous impacts of its failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Hurricane Michael now Category 4, still intensifying, landfall this afternoon on Florida Panhandle

terrypinder for Daily Kos Weather Center

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Wednesday October 10, 2018 · 5:03 AM PDT

2018/10/10 · 05:03

Hurricane Michael is within hours of striking the Florida coast, having intensified to a strong category 4 hurricane---and still getting stronger.

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE......LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE 
FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMMINENT...SUMMARY OF 700 AM 
CDT...1200 UTC…INFORMATION--------------------------------------------—
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W 
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Ok, so it’s October. Why is Michael so strong?

The Gulf is hot. And mostly untouched this year.
Michael is a small hurricane
Conditions are perfect for it
Climate Change (yeah, it’s real)

and the hurricane has taken advantage. Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance indicates a cyclone that continues to deepen this morning (flight level winds in the eastern eyewall are screaming at 176mph—that’s about 30,000 feet off the ground, but indicative of an extremely intense hurricane), and a run at Category 5 is not out of the question before landfall this afternoon.

The time for leaving the coast is done, by the way, and if anyone is reading this, good luck. I’d also ask if we’d perhaps chill with political implications right now. As far as I can tell, the strongest hurricane to strike this region of the Florida Panhandle in living memory was Kate on Thanksgiving, 1985. Hundreds of thousands of people in the Panhandle (like Tallahassee—which has never seen a storm of this strength), parts of Georgia, and Alabama are about to experience one of the most terrifying days and evenings of their lives and I don’t know what the coastal towns will look like in the morning after Michael has passed. Let’s have just a little empathy for them.

Updates as I can through the day. Landfall will be around 2-4pm.

FishOutofWater for Hurricane Kos

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Tuesday October 09, 2018 · 7:19 PM PDT

2018/10/09 · 19:19

Hurricane Michael has developed extremely cold cloud tops approaching -80 Celsius (shown in black and shades of gray) and a small warm eye that indicate further intensification is likely. — The black and grey tones in this infrared image of hurricane Michael indicate extremely cold cloud top temperatures approaching -80 Celsius. These clouds which are pushing up the stratosphere indicate rapid intensification of Michael is continuing. Michael already has strong sustained category 3 winds of at least 125mph according to recent hurricane hunter airplane measurements.

Hurricane Michael is rapidly intensifying and will soon be an exceedingly dangerous category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 miles per hour. Michael’s central pressure has dropped rapidly to 947mb and winds on the weak side were apparently just measured at 110knots — the top of category 3. The Panama city region of Florida is in extreme danger as Michael is intensifying to a more powerful storm than forecast. National Hurricane center forecasters have been carefully using the best models to make their forecasts, but predicting the intensity of hurricanes continues to be a challenge. Evacuations need to be expedited because this storm may be significantly more destructive than models have predicted. If you are in an evacuation zone you should have left by now. If you are near the margin of an evacuation zone I recommend you leave as quickly as you can in the dead of night because you won’t have time to leave if officials expand the evacuation zone later. People have died stuck in traffic in a hurricane so what ever you do, find shelter on high ground before the storm hits.

The NHC’s latest 10 pm central time 11PM EDT discussion vividly reviews the astounding intensification that Michael has been undergoing over the past six hours.

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 14NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL1420181000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a rapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a decrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those pressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye has become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared satellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures colder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops in the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive for a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by the NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR surface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as the peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a central pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased to 110 kt.

Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has not measured thus far.

Hurricane hunter aircraft data streams from a radar sounding instrument show that surface winds are approaching 115 knots or about 130 mph. That, and very strong flight level winds approaching 140knots, indicate that Michael willlikely soon be upgraded to category 4 by the NHC. — Hurricane hunter aircraft data streams from a radar sounding instrument show that surface winds are approaching 115 knots or about 130 mph. That, and very strong flight level winds approaching 140knots, indicate that Michael will likely soon be upgraded to category 4 by the NHC.

Michael’s eye wall is forecast to come ashore near Panama City Beach midday tomorrow. The eye is forecast to be just offshore at 1pm Wednesday afternoon. Destructive storm surge will begin early in the day and buoy measurements show waves of 30 feet or higher will add to the destruction caused by the surge. If the storm continues to intensify, storm surge forecasts will need to be updated.

The official NHC storm surge forecast at 8pm was:

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and thetide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded byrising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has thepotential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

Hurricane Michael 5pm EDT 9Oct18 forecast track. — Hurricane Michael 5pm EDT 9Oct18 forecast track issued by the Tallahassee Florida NWS office. The Panama City region of Florida is in extreme danger from strengthening Hurricane Michael.

Here is the latest satellite imagery loop of Michael. The increased eyewall symmetry is indicative of an organizing and strengthening storm. pic.twitter.com/o4FkMr9NdT
— NWS Tallahassee (@NWSTallahassee) October 10, 2018

Countdown to landfall is on. Most guidance has the eyewall of #Michael arriving near Port St. Joe early afternoon tomorrow (outer bands moving in overnight) pic.twitter.com/2wus5YMxeQ
— Eric Fisher (@ericfisher) October 10, 2018

Another side-by-side only 1-hour apart. #HurricaneMichael

Eye is becoming well defined, clearing/warming and symmetric/circular. On satellite, this is a definite Category 4 -- but we will await aircraft observation to confirm ... Not good. pic.twitter.com/Q72UyNYknU
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) October 10, 2018

Exploding hot tower in the eyewall of #Michael temporarily stopping recon from penetrating the eye. Violent updrafts that are dangerous to the aircraft and crew are present in these towers. pic.twitter.com/Hl8d3RWQlR
— Brenden Moses (@Cyclonebiskit) October 9, 2018

The best measurements of hurricane wind speed and intensity are the direct measurements by hurricane hunter meteorologists but those measurements are supplemented by satellite data. Satellite data may also be useful to help predict storm intensification. A method improved and used by the University of Wisconsin, called the Advanced objective Dvorak technique. indicates that Michael is likely to continue to intensify, possibly to a strong category 4 and potentially up to the low end of category 5. The combination of extremely cold cloud tops and a warm eye indicates that Michael could spin up to 135 knots — over 150 mph. Actual wind speeds have been lower than ADT numbers for most of the day, probably because the eye wall has had weaknesses and instabilities. However, the ADT numbers have accurately indicated that Michael would strengthen rapidly and waters are warm enough to support a category 5 hurricane if wind shear does not disrupt the eye wall.

Satellite estimate of hurricane Michael's intensity by the Advanced objective Dvorak Technique, a way of using cloud top and eye temperature and radius data to quantify hurricane wind speeds.

The latest hurricane hunter pass at 10:10pm shows the pressure continues to drop and hurricane Michael continues to intensify.

Florence landfalling near Wilmington, NC; extensive flood event ahead

terrypinder for Daily Kos Weather Center

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday September 14, 2018 · 5:38 AM PDT

2018/09/14 · 05:38

Hurricane Florence has come ashore near Wilmington, NC, with winds of 90 miles an hour. It will then meander through the Carolinas over the weekend, dropping some catastrophic rains in some places.

The hurricane encountered shear from an upper level system on Wednesday and Thursday, which disrupted its circulation and weakened it. But if anyone let their guard down because the winds came down, well that was really stupid.

The hurricane will drop copious amounts of rain as it slowly crawls through the Carolinas. Water is what kills in these storms, either from storm surge or from rain inland. It’s rarely the wind.

It cannot be emphasized enough that the most serious hazardassociated with slow-moving Florence is extremely heavy rainfall,which will cause disastrous flooding that will be spreading inlandthrough the weekend.

We’re not done with this yet.

Updates as I can during the day. Please use the thread to post news and emergency information.

FishOutofWater for Daily Kos Weather Center

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Tuesday September 11, 2018 · 11:35 AM PDT

2018/09/11 · 11:35

Microwave imagery from the Air Force's F-18 satellite shows the structure of hurricane Irma hidden from visible imagery by the high cloud canopy. Microwave imagery is very helpful to hurricane forecasters because microwave imaging reveals hidden eyes and other signs of potential raid intensification that cannot be seen in visible images.

The US Air Force (USAF) has maintained a series of defense weather satellites with microwave imaging technology since the 1960’s. This microwave imaging has multiple uses for seeing water and ice that would otherwise be hidden under canopies of clouds. Images, such as the one above of hurricane Irma taken from the F-18 satellite show the structure of the core of hurricanes and tropical storms that is hidden in the visible spectrum by clouds. These images are very useful to hurricane forecasters because they reveal developing eyes and other structures that may help them forecast the intensity of storms. Unfortunately, most of the existing F series satellites have exceeded their design lifetime and no replacements are in sight because Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, forced the Air Force to destroy the F-20 satellite which had already been built and was scheduled for launch. Multiple satellite units had been built at the same time to save money on building them but storing the F-20 cost millions. He eliminated funding for launch and for storage giving the Air Force no option but to destroy the satellite.

The media has already covered the potential impact of the destruction of the F-20 satellite on the measurement of sea ice extent, but I have seen no reports on the impact on hurricane forecasting. The premature failure of the F-19 satellite has created a potential situation where there will be a dangerous gap in microwave satellite imaging capabilities because Mike Rogers destroyed the F-20.

www.climatecentral.org/...

Yet in an unfortunate twist, researchers could lose their eyes in the sky that allow them to watch over the region. In addition to announcing the record low February sea ice extent, NSIDC sounded the alarm about a looming satellite gap that could create a blind spot for scientists at the top of the world.

Scientists are essentially working on borrowed satellite time. There are currently four satellites with sensors that can monitor Arctic sea ice.

Three of the four, jointly operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Department of Defense, are two to eight years past their expected lifespans. Last year, one of those satellites malfunctioned. While the redundancy of the other satellites helped stave off a blackout, there’s no guarantee they’ll continue to provide support into the future.

3_6_17_Brian_SeaIceSatellites_UPDATED_720_540_s_c1_c_c.jpg

Mike Rogers asserted that the technology was obsolete but it provided a continuous record with the same kind of sensor of the long decline of sea ice extent in the Arctic.

“It's a real loss to have had the F20 dismantled, but Congress would not give the Air Force the funds to launch that sensor even though the instrument had already been built,” Julienne Stroeve, a remote sensing expert at NSIDC, said.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency operates the fourth Arctic-monitoring satellite. That’s also approaching the end of its forecast five-year lifespan. Stroeve said NSIDC is working to integrate data from the Japanese satellite into their operations, “but even so there may still be a gap for a couple years.”

The European Space Agency is expected to launch an new satellite to monitor the region, but the launch isn’t on the docket until 2021.

Rogers seemed angry that the Air Force’s F satellite series was collecting key data that proved that dangerous warming was taking place in the Arctic. He accused the Air Force of incompetence.

spacenews.com/…

During a House Armed Services Committee hearing on acquisition reform, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) said Congress had lost confidence in the Air Force’s ability to run its legacy weather satellite program. Rogers chairs the House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, which provides oversight of military satellites. …

“We could have saved the Air Force and the Congress a lot of aggravation if we put a half of a billion dollars in a parking lot and just burned it,” he said. …

In the massive omnibus spending bill for fiscal year 2016, lawmakers provided no funding for DMSP and the bill denied $120 million of funding to launch DMSP-20 around 2018. The combination effectively ended the program. The Air Force had spent $518 million on the satellite, Rogers said.

Instead, he said, the money set aside for DMSP could have been spent on other national security priorities, but now the satellite is “going in the trash. I presume it’s going to be made into razor blades.”

Meanwhile 3 hurricanes are active in the Atlantic and Hurricane Irma is the strongest hurricane ever observed in the open Atlantic ocean. The heat content of the north Atlantic is continuing to rise because of the effects of increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases released by human activities. The Atlantic ocean has heated up while the lower stratosphere above the tops of hurricanes has cooled, increasing the thermodynamic potential, making the strongest hurricanes stronger. And we may soon lose a key tool for monitoring hurricanes thanks to Mr. Roger’s spite.

Here’s a map that shows why Irma is so strong. The ocean heat content is at record high levels along Irma’s track. Unfortunately, the heat content south of Miami, on Irma’s forecast track, is extraordinarily high. The NHC is not forecasting it, but the American GFS model is predicting that Irma will intensify over this hot Gulf Stream water that stays hot to hundreds of feet depth.

Hurricane Irma 18zWeds6Sept17 forecast track and ocean heat content. — Hurricane Irma 18z Weds 6Sept17 forecast track and ocean heat content.

Florence to deliver devastating blow to the Carolinas; Olivia to strike Hawaii

terrypinder for Daily Kos Weather Center

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Tuesday September 11, 2018 · 5:45 AM PDT

2018/09/11 · 05:45

Hurricane Florence will likely strike the United States,somewhere in the vicinity of Wilmington, NC, on Thursday evening, as a major hurricane. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Olivia will pass through the Hawaiian Islands tomorrow as a tropical storm, dumping extremely heavy rain on islands soaked by Hurricane Lane last month.

FLORENCE

Florence remains an extremely dangerous hurricane.

Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
800 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...
...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

The hurricane has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle—this is when the powerful thunderstorms immediately around the eye collapse and reform. Hurricanes generally weaken during this cycle, which takes 12 to 24 hours to complete. We don’t really know when they’ll happen, just that they do. It sometimes is random and at the moment, beyond the capability of our forecasting tools to forecast.

Florence will likely re-organize when the cycle completes this morning. Because conditions in the ocean (sea surface temperatures) and in the atmosphere around the storm are favorable, it is very likely Florence will make a run at Category 5 status, and will be perhaps more powerful than Hurricane Hazel (1954) and Hurricane Hugo (1989) on its approach to the Carolinas on Thursday. Both of these storms were Category 4 storms when they made landfall in the Carolinas, Hazel the more powerful of the two.

Of even more concern is that Florence will slow down beginning Thursday as it approaches land, somewhere in the vicinity of Wilmington, NC, and may very well get stuck for several days. This will lead to an inland flood event of truly epic proportions, the extent of which won’t be known until we know how far west inland Florence will track.

Hurricane watches are up for the coasts of North and South Carolina, and inland hurricane watches are also up for points inland. It’s likely watches will be extended into Virginia. Points north along the coast will also have to deal with persistent coastal flooding, as they have for the last several days and we don’t yet know if Florence’s rains will spread inland across Pennsylvania and New York.

Big threat here. Please pay attention and heed all warnings and instructions.

OLIVIA

Tropical Storm Olivia is moving towards Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Olivia Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP172018
200 AM HST Tue Sep 11 2018
...OLIVIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD HAWAII...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 150.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Olivia continues to weaken, however Hurricane Lane dumped a great deal of rain on the islands as it passed a couple weeks ago. Olivia threatens to do the same, and officials want the residents of Hawaii to be alert.

KEY MESSAGES:
1. Resist the temptation to make comparisons between Lane and
Olivia. Although Lane was a stronger tropical cyclone near the
islands, it did not bring direct core impacts to the state. In some
areas, Olivia could bring significantly worse impacts than those
brought by Lane. Those impacts could include intense flooding
rainfall, damaging winds, and large and dangerous surf.
2. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track
and intensity when planning for Olivia. Regardless of the track
that Olivia takes as it approaches the islands, significant impacts
can be expected away from the center. In particular, the
mountainous terrain of Hawaii can produce localized areas of
strongly enhanced wind gusts and rainfall.

Elsewhere there are 6 other tropical systems in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Issac has weakened to a tropical storm but is very much worth watching when it enters the Caribbean. A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is worth watching, as it may eventually move over areas soaked by Florence, and Typhoon Mangkhut in the Western Pacific is exceptionally powerful, on course for Hong Kong by Sunday.

Please use the thread below to post emergency management information and news clips. I will update the diary as I can during the day.

FishOutofWater for Hurricane Kos

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Monday September 10, 2018 · 10:26 AM PDT

2018/09/10 · 10:26

Hurricane Florence at noon eastern time 10Sept18, at 115knots, 130mph, 947mb Category 4. Hurricane Florence has cleared out the dry air caused by a multi-day episode of strong wind shear and has formed an intense, unbroken eyewall. Florence will track over even warmer water that's warm to considerable depth so continued intensification is likely.

11pm EDT update

Florence has tracked slightly north of the 5pm forecast track and the 11pm track has been adjusted slightly to the right — northwards. Intensification has stopped for now apparently because of an eyewall replacement cycle. The NHC continues to say Florence has 140 mph winds. After the cycle is completed Florence may get stronger.

Florence’s Landfall cone is now predicted to be centered around the Onslow bay area of North Carolina

Military satellite microwave imagery this evening showed an apparent eyewall replacement cycle with a collapsing inner eye surrounded by a broader new eye.

Eyewall replacement cycle for Florence Monday evening EDT. — Military satellite microwave imagery shows an eyewall replacement cycle taking place in Florence.

5pm EDT update

Florence has strengthened to 140 mph sustained winds with a central pressure of 939 mb, now a solid category 4. Tonight Florence is heading into warmer waters with even more heat. The forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the north towards the Wilmington, NC metro area and beaches including Wrightsville beach and Figure 8 island. The center line of the track goes over where I am Friday morning.

---end update---

NOAA’s hurricane hunter plane has just found category 4 winds and pressures of 115 knot and 947 mb in rapidly intensifying Hurricane Florence. Flight level winds were even higher at 130 knots. That means that Florence’s sustained winds are now 130 miles per hour.

A dropsonde from NOAA's P3 hurricane hunter plane found 115 knot surface winds and central pressure of 947 mb. Florence is now a category 4 hurricane that is rapidly intensifying.

Hurricane Florence is on track for the Carolina coast, with the center of the cone of highest probability in the Cape Fear region. This highly populated region includes Wilmington, North Carolina and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. I am situated an hour’s drive inland from Wilmington. I don’t have the time to blog because I have many preparations to do before Florence comes my way.

Hurricane Florence will heavily impact the Carolina Coast starting this Thursday afternoon according to the NHC and multiple forecast models. The most likely area of impact will be from the Virginia to the Georgia borders.

I was hoping that the strong trade winds that blew massive amounts of heat out of the tropical north Atlantic this summer would lessen this hurricane season, but the heat has been blown towards the east coast making the Carolina coast vulnerable to potentially the strongest hurricane in its history.

Hurricane Florence will track over water temperatures of about 30 Celsius. That’s 85 to 86 ºF.

The water is so warm to depth that it could potentially, under worst case conditions, support a strong category 5 hurricane with a pressure of 900mb with sustained winds possibly as high as 200mph. After a brutally warm first ten days of September in the Carolinas the coastal waters inside the Gulf Stream are also very warm. There is no cool coastal zone this September.

This screen shot of an overlay shows the maximum potential low surface pressure for a hurricane on Florence's forecast track. The pressure could potentially be as low as 900mb - a strong category 5 with sustained winds approaching 200 mph. Note the dark red zone at the top left. That’s the Gulf Stream.

Make no mistake, the increasing intensity of hurricanes we have seen since the turn of the millennium is because of the increasing area of the Atlantic ocean with extremely high heat content. Only areas of very high oceanic heat content can maintain category 4 and 5 hurricanes. Strong hurricanes mix cool water up from below except when the warm water layer is very thick.

The area of high heat content waters in the north Atlantic ocean has been increasing, causing the strongest hurricanes to get stronger.

Once inland, blocking high pressure to the north could cause Florence to slow or stall which could lead to massive flooding. However, it is impossible to forecast the details of such a scenario at this time. The amount of moisture that could be pulled in off the Atlantic is extraordinarily high.

I have to get back to my preparations and hope for the best. I guess this is the new normal now. We all hope that it won’t be us when hurricane season comes.

4pm EDT Update: We’ll see how the NHC interprets this sounding but it looks like Florence has spun up to at least 120 to 125 knots — about 140mph.

The wind speeds near the surface are oover 120 knots. — A dropsonde from the hurricane hunter plane found 125 knot surface winds. That’s 145 mph sustained.

The NHC is likely to report 942 mb central pressure and 120 or 125 knot sustained winds, about 140mph sustained winds, for the 5pm EDT update. A 4pm dropsonde, a sounding device dropped from the airplane, found surface pressure in the eye was 942 mb. That’s a solid category 4 central pressure and wind speed.

WTF Where's the Navy? Rescue Squad Guards St. Croix Cell Tower After Generator Stolen All Comms Lost

FishOutofWater for Hurricane Kos

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Sunday September 24, 2017 · 7:33 PM PDT

2017/09/24 · 19:33

David Goodrich, commander of the extrication unit at St. Croix Rescue, is guarding the generator at the AT&T’s Gallows Bay cell tower

Both cell phone and internet communications failed on St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands after thieves stole the generator at the AT&T’s Gallows Bay cell tower. The failure of the tower brought down AT&T’s communications island wide. The commander of the St. Croix rescue squad’s extrication unit took up guard duty to ensure continued communications after a wealthy local business owner, Robert Armstrong restored power to the cell tower by personally transporting a privately owned generator with his bobcat. Securing communications is essential to all efforts to rescue, distribute fuel and supplies and begin the process of recovery. This is a job for security professionals such as the National Guard and the U.S. Navy, when the local police is overwhelmed by a disaster, but it is now being done by David Goodrich, rescue squad commander.

viconsortium.com/…

While Donald Trump, AWOL commander in chief, is busy Tweeting about football protests, first responders in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are desperately trying to protect and save lives.

While the Trump regime is announcing new restrictions on travel, U.S. citizens in the Caribbean are fending for themselves without assistance from the federal government.

At the tower now is David Goodrich, commander of the extrication unit at St. Croix Rescue, who has been guarding the site since private citizens took it upon themselves to not only provide a generator, but security as well. Robert Armstrong, a member of the well-known Armstrong family on the island and owner of multiple businesses, used his bobcat to transport a generator he provided to the site, and received help from Tom Schoenbohm, a communications tower expert, to install it. Mr. Schoenbohm dried certain parts of the tower that had collected water, and turned it back on. The thieves damaged the automatic transfer switch in the process of stealing the generator, so Mr. Schoenbohm hardwired the replacement into the tower.

Yet, even after turning it back on, the tower did not work because it had lost linkage with an AT&T tower in La Grande Princesse. Mr. Schoenbohm linked the tower to AT&T’s tower in Miami, and then went to the Cheese Burgers in Paradise tower, performed some maintenance, and turned that tower on as well.

As of Saturday afternoon, the towers were being guarded by private citizens who were volunteering their time. Mr. Armstrong and Mr. Goodrich are calling on local authorities to provide security for the sites, noting the importance of communication.

“During a natural disaster, the key things are communications, security and fuel. You need communications to communicate with everybody, you need fuel to run those communications, and then you’ll also need security to secure that fuel and communications. You need that before food and water, because if you don’t have communication to distribute supplies, it’s not going to work,” Mr. Goodrich said.

Hillary Clinton has tried to get the Trump regime’s attention to help the 3.5 million American citizens living in Puerto Rico and the USVI. If Hillary were sitting in the Oval Office help would be on its way. The U.S. Navy medical ship, the U.S. Comfort is sitting in port at Newport News while the nurses and doctors who could be saving lives in Puerto Rico are waiting and watching the surf rise at Norfolk as Maria heads towards the waters east of Cape Hatteras.

President Trump, Sec. Mattis, and DOD should send the Navy, including the USNS Comfort, to Puerto Rico now. These are American citizens. https://t.co/J2FVg4II0n
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) September 24, 2017

The governor of the Virgin Islands said today a cruise ship is on the way with FEMA, lineman food, water and supplies, but at this time on St. Croix basic security necessary to protect communications and essential services is being supplied by private citizens and rescue squad leaders. It is unclear from reports which island the cruise ship will go to and how supplies and people will be distributed from island to island. viconsortium.com/...

The territory’s leader indicated that Federal Emergency Management Agency (F.E.M.A.) personnel, linemen and relief workers from around the country were on the way to the USVI and would be housed on a cruise ship.

Mr. Mapp said the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (H.U.D.) was continuing work on a plan to aid those public housing residents displaced by the storm and that an announcement was expected next week in that regard.

Mr. Mapp and Mr. Potter explained to senators that the E.O.C. would soon be moving to the University of the Virgin Islands, where the gym will serve as the center of operations for the local and federal governments’ relief efforts.

Before Maria hit all of the U.S. Virgin Islands were devastated by category 5 Hurricane Irma. As of September 14 St. John and St. Thomas were struggling without housing and power. Restoring power to those islands was expected to take perhaps 8 months before Maria hit slamming St Croix and setting back recovery efforts on St. John and St Thomas.

YouTube Video

Please see the related diary on the situation in Puerto Rico caused by hurricane Maria written by Denise Oliver Velez. www.dailykos.com/...

Update: Monday morning 25 September 17

I have found, with some help from commenters here, several videos of Navy helicopters around St. Croix. The Navy has helped evacuate people in urgent need of medical attention. The Navy is also assisting the people of the Dominica which is the island that saw hurricane Maria’s strongest winds.

The scale of the response does not meet the scale of the need. The people of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands need far more help on the ground. Evacuating a few people is not the same as having the U.S. Comfort in San Juan harbor where it can serve as a medical center for the 3.5 million Americans living in the islands.

#USNavy #USSWasp Sailors assist evacuees in St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, following Hurricane #Maria, Sept. 21. pic.twitter.com/Ohba9yw237
— U.S. Navy (@USNavy) September 23, 2017

This video below would be helpful if it showed the condition of the airport. It looks like St. Croix was spared the worst wind damage when hurricane Maria went through an eyewall replacement cycle and wobbled away from the island but the turbid water is evidence of the effects of the huge waves that slammed the port of Frederiksted.

Ã°ÂÂÂ: P-8A crewmember explains aircraft's capabilities during Hurricane #Maria damage assessment above St. Croix.
Ã¢ÂÂ¹Ã¯Â¸Â: https://t.co/KC9UKlhl5v pic.twitter.com/052lKf8kgs
— U.S. Navy (@USNavy) September 23, 2017

A FB video of the dire condition of the power grid on St. Croix can be seen here. viconsortium.com/…

The most recent location of the USSWasp, which is the Navy ship that helped with the evacuation of hospital patients on St. Croix, is the island of Dominica. twitter.com/… Stranded tourists were helicoptered out by Navy sailors. The U.S. territories of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are fending for themselves.

Ã°ÂÂÂº: #USSWasp Sailors evacuated U.S. citizens from the island of Dominica, Saturday, following Hurricane #Maria. pic.twitter.com/OwGg0Go1y6
— U.S. Navy (@USNavy) September 25, 2017

USS Wasp

USS Comfort

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WTF Where's the Navy? Rescue Squad Guards St. Croix Cell Tower After Generator Stolen All Comms Lost