I see that Alizarin Indigo has already beaten me to the punch (good work by the way) but this diary will be devoted to legislative redistricting and the effects it will have on Idahoan state politics over the next few years.
After the 2010 midterms, the Democrats have been reeling from huge losses. Outside of an easy Senate pickup against an utter nut in District 6 (Moscow), the Idaho Democrats got their asses handed to them up and down the ballot. Keith Allred, a Mormon conservative who had surprising fundraising skills, underperformed against Otter, who had middling approval ratings. Even the so-called marquee race between Olson and Luna for Idaho Superintendent, which had been held for decades by Democrats before 2006, was a 20 point blowout. We lost seats in historic Democratic districts in District 2 (mining/logging country in north Idaho), District 7 (Lewiston), District 29 (outer-Pocatello) along with a Senate and Rep seat in territory that is moving towards us rapidly (southern Boise).
Our current standings stand as follows-
Idaho State Senate:
Republicans - 28
Democrats - 7
Idaho State House:
Republicans - 57
Democrats - 13
You have to ask yourself: can it get worse than this? The answer is a resolute yes. After redistricting, our chances at ever clawing our way back to relevancy in Idaho have been diminished greatly. Traditional Democratic districts have been stretched and vote sinks have been kept in place. I'll do my best to analyze each individual old district and each new one and our chances there in 2012. It's hard to say this far out but our Republican legislature is not popular and is reeling from scandal (the Per Diem mess) and unpopular education reforms. Even with a President on the ballot that is less popular than AIDS in Idaho, our chances of picking up seats looks good. Maybe I'll update you guys on local municipal politics as well. That might offer a clue as to where the winds are blowing.
Old and new legislative districts side by side:
District 1
Not much has changed to District 1 other than a few minor additions in the form of a few ultra-conservative precincts from rural Bonner County. District 1 includes Sandpoint, a town well known for it's granola liberal feel and ski/wilderness tourist industry (it gave Obama 53% of the vote) though it's tempered by the rugged individualist rural areas. Regardless, Democrats have struggled to break through here during the past decade. Continuous close races in Seat A, held by weak candidate Eric Anderson, failed to bear fruit in 2006 (49.1% D) and 2008 (45.4% D) regardless of the wave. This seat is turning away from us. We even failed to produce challengers to any of the troika last year.These new boundaries just made it that much harder. (Senate - Solid R, Seat A - Likely R/Solid R, Seat B - Solid R)
Old District 1 (Boundary County and Sandpoint)
2004: Bush 61.1%, Kerry 36.9%
2006 Gubernatorial: Otter 49.9%, Brady 47.1%
2008: McCain 56.9%, Obama 41.7%
Senator Sean Keough (R), Representative Eric Anderson (R), Representative George Eskridge (R)
to
New District 1 (Boundary County and Sandpoint + a few small outlying towns)
2006 Gubernatorial: Otter 50.6%, Brady 46.4%
2008 Presidential: McCain 59.3%, Obama 40.7%
Senator Sean Keough (R), Representative Eric Anderson (R), Representative George Eskridge (R)
District 2
Outside of a few added precincts from Bonner County, this district formerly known as District 3 is the same. This district includes wealthy homes around Hayden Lake, "Snob Hill" and a mix of new exurban developments and older school/lower class "redneck" neighborhoods. This district will never elect a Democrat, however Rep Hart will go down in a primary challenge after a severe scandal showing he had tens of thousands of backtaxes. Democrats don't even bother running candidates here. Fun fact: I live in this district's most liberal precinct which gave a whopping 34% of the vote. (Senate - Solid R, Seat A - Solid R, Seat B - Solid R)
Old District 3 (Coeur d' Alene's suburbs, exurbia and rural areas)
2004 Presidential: Bush 71.3%, Kerry 27.3%
2006 Gubernatorial: Otter 58.1%, Brady 39.0%
2008 Presidential: McCain 67.7%, Obama 30.0%
Senator Steve Vick (R), Representative Vito Barbieri (R), Representative Phil Hart (R)
to
New District 2 (Coeur d' Alene's suburbs, exurbia and rural areas)
2006 Gubernatorial: Otter 58.0%, Brady 38.8%
2008 Presidential: McCain 69.7%, Obama 30.3%
Senator Steve Vick (R), Representative Vito Barbieri (R), Representative Phil Hart (R)
District 3
This district formerly known as District 5 is Post Falls aka the exurbs in between Coeur d' Alene and Spokane that have no real identity. This area wasn't populated in the slightest a mere 20 years ago and now it is bustling with growth and activity hence why the huge contraction in district size occurred. Like all lower-middle class exurbs, D3 votes heavily for Republicans. Perennial Democratic candidates are actually on the ballot in this district. Chances are that Bob Nonini will face a respectable challenger in 2012 because of his profile in the education reform fight. (Senate - Solid R, Seat A - Solid R, Seat B - Solid R)
District 5 (more suburbia except it's a Spokane oriented one called Post Falls)
2004 Presidential: Bush 69%, Kerry 29.2%
2006 Gubernatorial: Otter 56.3%, Brady 40.3%
2008 Presidential: McCain 64.9%, Obama 32.6%
Senator Jim Hammond (R), Representative Bob Nonini (R), Representative Frank Henderson (R)
to
New District 3
2006 Gubernatorial: Otter 56.1%, Brady 40.6%
2008 Presidential: McCain 65.3%, Obama 34.7%
Senator Jim Hammond (R), Representative Bob Nonini (R), Representative Frank Henderson (R)
District 4
Nothing has changed in District 4 outside of the swapping of a precinct to the 5th to give one to the 7th. District 4 is Coeur d' Alene and Coeur d' Alene alone and for that reason District 4 is very winnable for Democrats. While CDA hasn't been trending blue, it hasn't been moving away from Democrats either. Democrats actually held a seat here before 2010 with Rep Sayler (who retired and is now running for city council). Unfortunately for Team Blue, CDA is very electorally polarized and vote splitting occurs less often here. Candidates rarely post big margins here. While all three GOP legislators are vulnerable in theory, the best target for the Democrats would be freshman Rep Kathy Sims. (Senate - Likely R/Lean R, Seat A - Likely R/Lean R, Seat B - Lean R/Tilt R)
Old District 4 (Coeur d' Alene)
2004 Presidential: Bush 59%, Kerry 39.4%
2006 Gubernatorial: Brady 51%, Otter 46.4%
2008 Presidential: McCain 53.3%, Obama 44.2%
Senator John Goedde (R), Representative Marge Chadderdon (R), Representative Kathleen Sims (R)
to
New District 4 (Coeur d' Alene)
2006 Gubernatorial: Brady 50.6%, Otter 46.7%
2008 Presidential: McCain 54.4%, Obama 45.6%
Senator John Goedde (R), Representative Marge Chadderdon (R), Representative Kathleen Sims (R)
District 5
This district can be accurately summed up as the University of Idaho (Moscow is a college town through and through) + decrepit rural towns. Unfortunately for Democrats (again, this will be repeated a lot), redistricting turned a district that could accurately be defined as liberal to on that is swingy in national terms. Democrats don't hold a seat here because of moderate Tom Trail, who is strongly supported by teacher's unions and is far removed from his party. Regardless of this, he often faces tough opponents and only received 57% of the vote in 2010. This will change with the inclusion of Benewah County as he'll be shored up. Newly elected Senator Schmidt will likely face tough opposition, although presidential turnout from U of I should mitigate his poor performance in Benewah County. Shirley Ringo faces many of the same obstacles, although she's a longtime incumbent. (Senate - Tilt D/Lean D, Seat A - Strong R/tossup if retires, Seat B - Lean D/Likely D)
District 6 (Latah County: University of Idaho)
2004 Presidential: Bush 49.5%, Kerry 48.0%
2006 Gubernatorial: Brady 59.3%, Otter 37%
2008 Presidential: Obama 51.3%, McCain 44.6%
Senator Dan Schmidt (D), Representative Tom Trail (R), Representative Shirley Ringo (D)
to
New District 5 (University of Idaho and Benewah County)
2006 Gubernatorial: Brady 55.4%, Otter 40.7%
2008 Presidential: Obama 49.9%, McCain 50.1%
Senator Dan Schmidt (D), Representative Tom Trail (R), Representative Shirley Ringo (D)
District 6
Just as District 4 is defined by Coeur d' Alene, District 6 is defined by Lewiston. Unlike Coeur d' Alene, Lewiston has moved rapidly away from the Democrats. Lewiston has a very working class/union character (also known for it's disgusting stench and mild weather) and is the epitome of a place that hates Obama but likes state Democrats. Unfortunately, redistricting made winning seats in this R-trending district fairly harder as more rural territory has been added to it (Lewis County) and newly elected Rep Nesset looks like he's there to stay, while if Democrat Rusche faces a challenger he might be in trouble. Example of this district's changing nature: in 2002 Democrats swept this district, now only one remains. (Senate - Likely R, Seat A - Lean D, Seat B - Likely R)
Old District 7 (Lewiston, a few small towns and a Nez Pearce reservation)
2004 Presidential: Bush 62.2%, Kerry 36.6%
2006 Gubernatorial: Brady 52%, Otter 46.5%
2008 Presidential: McCain 58.1%, Obama 40.0%
Senator Joe Stenger (R), Representative Jeff Nessett (R), Representative John Rusche (D)
to
New District 6 (Lewiston, a few small towns and a Nez Pearce reservation)
2006 Gubernatorial: Brady 50.9%, Otter 46.6%
2008 Presidential: McCain 60.5%, Obama 39.5%
Senator Joe Stenger (R), Representative Jeff Nessett (R), Representative John Rusche (D)
District 7
District 7 is full of electoral fun as it has been chopped to pieces because of the former mining/logging towns that are in decline. It doesn't resemble it's former shape in District 2 and has been radically changed. Freshman Republican Senator Broadsword, who lives in Bonner County, won't be able to run in this district and neither will Republican Representative Harwood who lives in Benewah County (challenge for Senator Schmidt?). Unfortunately for Democrats, the additions to Shoshone County make this district significantly more Republican. What used to be an area that voted for Hubert Humphrey and Dukakis is now a GOP bastion thanks to right to work laws and the death of blue collar work here. Conservative Democrat Mary Lou Shepard's surprise defeat in 2010 was the nail in the coffin here. Redistricting only worsens this blow. (Senate - Solid R, Seat A - Solid R, Seat B - Solid R)
Old District 2 (Shoshone County + scattered rural towns):
2004 Presidential: Bush 62.6%, Kerry 35.7%
2006 Gubernatorial: Otter 49.8%, Brady 46.6%
2008 Presidential: McCain 59.3%, Obama 37.4%
Senator Joyce Broadsword (R), Representative Shannon McMillan (R), Representative R.J. Harwood (R)
to
New District 7 (Shoshone, Clearwater and Idaho Counties):
2006 Gubernatorial: Otter 53.3%, Brady 43.2%
2008 Presidential: McCain 66.3%, Obama 33.7%
Senator Joyce Broadsword (R), Representative Shannon McMillan (R), Representative R.J. Harwood (R)
As you can see, things look positively gloomy for Democrats in Idaho. Our one legislative bastion in the north has been severely weakened. To be continued...
