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More mud in the Republican's Faces. I haven't seen a Diary of this. Short but Sweet!

We're moving FORWARD indeed. Thank you PBO. :)

The following are final estimates, based on taking polling data over longer intervals than our usual 1-week rule. Instead, I found the period over which a state’s polling variance was minimized, as a means of identifying stability.

Sam Wang:

ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 303 EV, Mitt Romney 235 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the EV histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a 22% chance of being exactly correct. The next-most-likely outcome is Obama 332, Romney 206 EV.

ELECTORAL PREDICTION (median): Obama 305 EV, Romney 233 EV, Popular Vote Meta-Margin Obama +2.76%. This median is almost guaranteed to be off, since 305 EV is not a common combination. It is the midpoint of all possibilities, and reflects the overall shape of the distribution. The nominal 1-sigma band is Obama [293, 332] EV.

TWO-CANDIDATE POPULAR VOTE SHARE: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%.
Very Encouraging! GOTV and back this thang up! :)

Sam Wang:

Democrats and Republicans are tied in the generic Congressional ballot. But Republicans are unlikely to lose control of the House, to a significant extent because redistricting and incumbency give them a +2.5% advantage. A nongeneric, district-by-district look also favors maintained Republican control. Based on these two lines of evidence, Democrats appear likely to gain 2-22 seats, but their takeover probability is only 13-23%. This estimate does not take into account one unknown influence: in the last two weeks, President Obama has taken the lead in national surveys, moving up by about 1.5%. This raises the possibility of hidden House strength for Democrats in the form of Presidential coattails.

At least we've tried. Still hoping for a surprise.  We'll see. :)


Will there be a surprise in the House due to Early Voting?

27%56 votes
36%74 votes
30%62 votes
5%11 votes

| 203 votes | Vote | Results


Short Diary but Self Explanatory.



Sorry, for the lack of Info:
This Effigy was hanging at a Bay Meadows Shell Station in Jacksonville, FL.


As of November 3, 8:03AM EDT:
Obama: 323
Romney: 215
Meta-margin: Obama +3.02%
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.1%, Bayesian Prediction 99.8%

Sam Wang:

President Obama is peeling away. As you can see from the electoral vote (EV) estimator, he is the candidate with the momentum, not Romney. In terms of EV or the Meta-margin, he's made up just about half the ground he ceded to Romney after Debate #1. And the indicators are still headed straight up.

I was very DISAPPOINTED to wake up this morning to see an Ad in PA during the news cycle by CEO Frank Blake of Home Depot touting Mitt Romney's business acumen and why America needs him to rebuild it's infrastructure while, at the same time denigrating Barack Obama's performance as POTUS. He said that businesses don't want to hire because of his failed policies (BullShit). My disappointment is three fold:
1. Home Depot has been my favorite store to shop for home repairs.
2. The LIES that were told in the advertisement against PBO.

3. As for Home Depot, I think I'll find another Home Repair Store to shop after spending thousands of dollars contributing to a Right Wing Zealot who pays their employee's sub par wages.  

I'm not surprised though that between now and election day we will see all kinds of attacks against our President.  He gets credit for nothing. Too late to stage a boycott.  HOPEFULLY  We will shut these non-believers down on Tuesday :)

Frank Blake's Bio:

Chairman and CEO
Frank Blake is the chairman and CEO of The Home Depot. Prior to his appointment to this position in 2007, he served as vice chairman of the board of directors and executive vice president of the Company. He joined The Home Depot in 2002 as executive vice president, business development and corporate operations, and was responsible for real estate, store construction, credit services, strategic business development, growth initiatives, call centers and the Home Services business.

Thanks, Guys for the rec. :)


Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 12:19 PM PDT

Sam Wang's UPDATE

by Iseeurfuture

As of November 2, 3:00PM EDT:
Obama: 319
Romney: 219
Meta-margin: Obama +2.82%

It's Friday and 4 days before the election.  The jobs numbers are out and are good in spite of the uptick in unemployment.  The weekend is upon us and we're sure to see both candidates try and bring their messages home to voters.  The Point of my diary is to say no matter what occurs between now and Tues outside of another Climate Disastor (Lord Forbid).




President Obama's lead in Michigan continues
TPM:Kyle Leighton

President Obama has a 6-point lead in Michigan, according to new polling from Democraltic-leaning Public Policy Polling and commissioned by the League Of Conservation Voters, who has endorsed Obama. Obama gets 52 percent of likely voters to Republican candidate Mitt Romney's 46 percent.
I guess the Romney campaign will go down with a fight.

I came across these 2 very interesting reads. More or less like Intrade but worth a look.

From John Ydstie:NPR

By this point in the campaign season, the presidential polls may have your head spinning. Romney's up 7 points in one, Obama's up 3 in another ... and on any given day, a dozen other polls are swirling, each offering a different take.

But there is a market out there that distills all those data down to one simple predictive number — and gives you a chance to bet on it. Sure, there's likely a bookie in your city who could give you odds on the presidential race and happily take your bet. But for most of the nation's history, would-be political bettors had another option: betting markets.

From the IEM:(Iowa Electronic Markets) By University Communication and Marketing

Mitt Romney has been making a comeback on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) in recent weeks, but Barack Obama is still a 2-to-1 favorite to win the popular vote in November.

A contract for Mitt Romney was selling for 34.5 cents on the IEM’s Winner Take All market Thursday morning, which means traders believe there is a 34.5 percent probability that he will win. That price is up substantially from the 18.6 cents he was trading at as recently as September 27, an 85 percent increase in price.

Obama, meanwhile, was selling for 66 cents Thursday, which means traders believe there is a 66 percent probability he will win the popular vote. As Romney’s price increased in recent weeks, Obama’s fell 19 percent from his high of 81.7 cents on Sept. 27.

Most of Romney’s recent gains came during a two-week period shortly before and after the first debate on Oct. 3. His price reached as high as 39.2 cents on Oct. 12 before settling back.

Meanwhile, on the Vote Share market, in which traders buy and sell contracts based on what percentage of the two party vote they think each candidate will receive, Obama was selling for 53.9 cents Thursday morning. That means traders believe Obama will receive 53.9 percent of the popular vote between the two candidates.

Regardless what Polls are saying GOTV and make it COUNT.


Sun Oct 21, 2012 at 10:32 AM PDT

Anatomy of a bounce

by Iseeurfuture

I thought I would Introduce Dr. Sam Wang of Princeton Consortium's dissection of bounces in general and where things stand as of today. It is a good read for anyone interested in understanding the schemes of Polling.  In the 2008 Presidential Election Dr. Wang was off by 1 electoral vote. See Here.
He bested Kos's favorite Nate Silver who got 50 out 51 states correct but was off by 18.5 EV's. He outperformed Electoral as well.

Dr. Wang explains in Anatomy of a bounce:

In the wake of his improved debate performance, President Obama’s recovery is now apparent. It is most clear when viewed in terms of the Meta-Analysis of state polls. Over the last four days, the Popular Vote Meta-Margin – the amount of swing it would take to create an electoral near-tie – has moved by over 1.0%. Today, the President’s effective lead, using Electoral College mechanisms, is Obama +1.8%. A rapid move like this can continue for a few days as polls catch up with the nation’s mental state.
But why do national polls continue to look so close, and in about half of cases good for Mitt Romney? To answer that, let’s take a look back at the effects of all three debates so far.
Dr. Wang goes on to explain things with graphs that are well over my head but he breaks it all down in laymen terms.   Graphs can be viewed here.

  As per Gallup Polling, Dr Wang sees this as an UNATTRACTIVE trait in MEDIA Coverage.

Because the race is so close, individual polls will inevitably be all over the place. And news organizations love the outlier data points, like the Gallup poll showing Romney +6%. I find this to be a particularly unattractive trait in media coverage. It was what led me to start the poll meta-analysis in 2004.

Dr. Wang further delves into the debates and how each impacted both candidates.
The post-debate-1 correction was a nearly five-point swing. It was complete within one day. This means that the post-debate-day media meltdown could not have caused the swing – though it certainly helped cement perceptions.

What caused this crash? Considering the polarization of voters this year (only a small fraction are persuadable), it seems likely to be caused by a change in morale on both sides: hope among Romney’s supporters and despair among Obama supporters, and a consequent change in whether they meet the criteria for being a “likely voter.” Imagine that an Obama supporter was 60% likely to vote before Debate #1, and then 57% afterward – and vice versa for a Romney supporter. That could fully account for the change.

There could also be some fraction of voters whose minds were changed by suddenly-moderate-Mitt and stumbling-Barack.

Since that time, there’s been a reversal in the direction of change. On October 5, Romney had a narrow lead, about 1.0%. Today, President Obama is back in a razor-thin lead at the national level – about 0.5-1.0%.
But here is something interesting. National polls do not match the state polls – and it is state races that determine the outcome, via the Electoral College. In the Meta-Analysis that Andrew Ferguson and I report on this website, Obama has been ahead all along.

Daily Polls keep folks on edge when they really shouldn't.   It doesn't mean that GOTV efforts should stop either.  Because this race is viewed by the media as close EVERYONE should be more propelled and energized to see that President Barack Obama is re-elected for a second term. < By Me. :)

Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 04:49 AM PDT

Pennsylvania Poll: Obama Up By 4

by Iseeurfuture

Released today @ 6:12 AM by Quinnipiac Poll

Mitt Romney is certainly gaining ground in PA even after pulling ads from the state. I doubt very SERIOUSLY though he wins PA. It will be interesting to see what other Pollsters come out with with regards to PA.  Just my thoughts.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent, in a Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania released Tuesday.

Romney has made a significant dent in the gap. In a Sept. 26 Quinnipiac poll, Obama commanded a 54 percent to 42 percent lead over Romney.

The PollTracker average of Pennsylvania currently shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney 49 percent to 44.9 percent.

Mitt Romney is certainly gaining ground in PA even after pulling ads from the state. I doubt very SERIOUSLY he wins PA. Just my thoughts

Courtesy by TPM. Story by David Taintor


Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 01:58 PM PDT

Tea Party launches Obamaphone ad

by Iseeurfuture

I guess it can get more ridiculous as we approach election day. What is it about FEAR and HATE that brings people out of the wood work? This story which is false was reported by originally. Anyone who is familiar with DRUDGE you know they deal with conspiracy theories, racial division and just plain hatred. The Ad itself is a cheap attempt to discredit President Barack Obama and contrast it with "Entitlements" that are paid for with tax payers money IE, social security, food stamps, free medical and so on.  The woman in the video obviously was sought out and agreed to (Not sure paid) to do this. Barack Obama did NOT give away any phones.

The desperation by the Right is unyielding and disingenuous at best. My take on this attempt is that it will 1). Enrage or BOIL the blood of those who weren't voting for Barack Obama even more. 2). Try to pull those undecided to their side who have not made up their minds. This is why people need to check facts before drawing conclusions by what someone else has told them or what they've heard.

The Irony, is that there does exist a government program that provides low income persons to obtain a phone. It just wasn't initiated by Barack Obama. It was started by George W. Bush.

Tea Party Group Launches Racist ‘Obama Phone’ Ad

Full Story courtesy of TP.


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