First let us look at some hard core facts….
The presidential elections in this century have consistently been under 60% turnout
2000 – 51.21%
2004 – 56.70%
2008 – 58.23%
2012 – 54.87%
In the Non-Presidential years the turnout rate runs around 40%
2014 -- 36.7%
2010 -- 41.8%
2006 -- 41.3%
2002 – 40.5%
Who remembers the 2014 – election?
Polls continued to show the general public furious about the stalemate going on in congress. People were unhappy with the government shutdown. They were unhappy with federal workers being furloughed. The unfavorably rating of congress was at its highest levels in history!
Predictions grew that because of this congressional discontent – congressional incumbents would be forced out in huge waves….
Yet, only 36.7% of eligible voters cared to cast votes that year…
This election year the unfavorable ratings for BOTH primary political party candidates are really sky high. Almost a race for which candidate can be the least liked of the other.
Here is my prediction – I believe this will be the first year of this century where the turnout rate for a presidential election will fall under 50%.
Heck in 2000 – was around 51% -- with 2008 gaining to 58% as the highest level ever reached this century. So feel pretty comfortable saying the turnout rate will come in under 50% --- meaning less than 50% of the American voters will even have a say who will be our next president.
I have several conservative friends – who have consistently voted GOP for the past ten years. Claiming they will either not vote at all, or will vote for a third party candidate. (none willing to admit they are tempted to vote Clinton)
I have several progressive friends; who are still so upset that Bernie was not the nominee – that they also guarantee they either will not be voting, or will vote for a third party candidate. . (none willing to admit they are tempted to vote Trump)
It appears to me -- the “winner” may simple be the one candidate which has a base which will show up and vote – “Come hell or high water”.
Right now, it appears the only “base” that is fired up and motivated enough to vote is those Trump supports – who will continue support him – even if He shoots and kills someone in broad daylight in front of thousands of witnesses. This base appears so “fired up” – if the turnout rate appears over 50% -- it will be this group that is bringing in the extra counts.
My Biggest fear this year ---
That while people moaned and complained about congress leading up to the 2014 election … in the end all those moaners and complainers could not get off their duffs to even cast a vote…. Leading to a turn out rate under 40%.
Just like then – I hear a lot of moaning and complaining …. But the only group that seems to be willing to do anything about it – is the group that everyone thinks is made up of Kooks and Nuts and would not even know how to find a polling location let alone vote in one….
We all may be very surprised by the results of this election …. Since I truly believe there will be less than 50% turnout rate deciding this election.
