Predictions for Every Contest

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Monday November 02, 2020 · 9:19 AM PST

2020/11/02 · 09:19

President

Donald Trump drew an inside straight to win in 2016. Since then, 3 things have happened:

1) He has a record to run on, and not vague promises. I believe the record speaks for itself. He has lost traction with older voters (primarily for his "response" to the pandemic) and suburban voters. He may have made the slightest of in-roads in minority communities.

2) New voters have entered the electorate and they are largely opposed to his re-election. Meanwhile, some older voters who voted for him 4 years ago have, um, departed from the scene.

3) The voters who didn't like both Hillary and Trump in 2016 largely voted for Trump or for 3rd parties. This time around, the 3rd party vote is down and not as many people dislike Joe Biden. Those folks who don't like either major party candidate are less likely to vote for the incumbent party (which worked for Trump 4 years ago and works against him now).

This all sets up for a reasonably comfortable Democratic victory tomorrow night in the ballpark of the 2008 Obama/McCain race. Of course, in 2020, nothing is simple, and the big question will be how much is known on Election Night or whether, over the course of the following week as ballots get counted in places like PA, MI, and WI, whether the president can sow enough doubt and discord to make a plausible (or plausible-enough) case in the courts. If I, as a Democrat, have one cause for concern, it is whether Republican get-out-the-vote efforts, less burdened than Democratic efforts have been by pandemic precautions, will succeed on the margins. But overall turnout seems so high that shouldn't matter too much.

And now to a specific prediction. To start with, Biden has 212 safe electoral votes and Trump has 119. From there, I see the states (and, in the case of NE and ME, congressional districts) lining up in the following order (# 1 the most likely to go to Biden):

1. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)

2. Minnesota (10)

3. Nebraska-02 (1)

4. Michigan (16)

5. Nevada (6)

6. Wisconsin (10)

7. Pennsylvania (20) [TIPPING POINT FOR 270 HERE]

8. Arizona (11)

9. North Carolina (15)

10. Georgia (16)

11. Maine-02 (1)

12. Florida (29)

13. Texas (38)

14. Iowa (6)

15. Ohio (18)

16. Alaska (3)

17. Montana (3)

To get to 270, Biden needs to get through Pennsylvania, which is the "tipping point" state that would put him over the top and, in this scenario, get to 279. My prediction is that he will carry everything on the list through Florida, resulting in a final total of 351-187 and a popular vote margin of something like 53-44-3. But really, don't be shocked if either candidate carries any of the states from 9-15 on this list and there really isn't much difference between 4-7 and 9-13. If Biden won the first 15, which is probably the best he can do, he would win the Electoral College by 413-125.

Should my prediction come true, we should know on Election Night that Biden has won, as NC and FL are must-wins for Trump, and they count votes quickly. Biden may not get over 270 on Election Night due to counting delays in PA, MI, WI, and other places, but if he wins even one of NC, FL, IA, TX, OH (all of which we should know on Election Night), he is almost certainly winning PA/MI/WI.

Senate

Republicans will pick up Alabama, to which I say to Sen. Doug Jones, don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened. It was wonderful to have a Democratic senator from Alabama for 3 years.

Democrats will thus need to pick up 4 from the following list to gain control of the Senate (again in order of most likely to flip), though some breathing room would be nice so every vote doesn't come down to conservative Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) as the man in the middle:

1. Colorado (Gardner)

2. Arizona (McSally)

3. Maine (Collins)

4. North Carolina (Tillis)

5. Georgia-Special (Loeffler)

6. Georgia (Perdue)

7. Montana (Daines)

8. Iowa (Ernst)

9. Alaska (Sullivan)

10. South Carolina (Graham)

11. Kansas (Open - Roberts)

12. Texas (Cornyn)

I see Democrats gaining the top 6 on the list, for a final result of 52-48. But the final tally will not be known on Election Night. We also may not know the result in Maine right away because that state has instant run-off voting and the re-allocation of votes from the minor party candidates will not be announced immediately. I do not expect the Democratic candidate in Maine to get over 50% on Election Night, but she should get the bulk of Green Party voters when their votes are re-allocated according to their ballot preferences.

At least one, and quite possibly both Georgia races will go to a January run-off if no one gets over 50% on Tuesday, where Republicans traditionally turn out in greater numbers than Democrats, but I have a feeling that Trump will be such a sore loser that Democrats will have the advantage in January. Not sure why I would think that ...

Montana is a potential upset in particular, as early voting there has gone well for the Dems. Of the rest, Iowa can still flip even if it votes narrowly for Trump. I don't rule out the Democrats winning all of these seats, honestly, though Kansas and Texas are probably too much to hope for. That would bring a 58-42 result, which would be amazing.

House

Democrats currently have 233 seats and it's just a question of how many seats they will gain. Given the attention on the presidential race, there hasn't been a lot of House polling and I could make a case for a Democratic gain of anywhere from +8 to +30. Going race-by-race, as I do below, results in a net Democratic gain of 15, for a final tally of 248-187.

We'll start with the Republican opportunities (with # 1 the most likely to flip):

1. MN-07 (Peterson)

2. NM-02 (Torres Small)

3. NY-11 (Rose)

4. CA-21 (Cox)

5. OK-05 (Horn)

6. NY-22 (Brindisi)

7. UT-04 (McAdams)

8. FL-26 (Murcasel-Powell)

9. CA-48 (Rouda)

10. VA-07 (Spanberger)

11. OR-04 (DeFazio)

12. IA-02 (Open - Loebsack)

13. SC-01 (Cunningham)

14. IA-01 (Finkenauer)

15. CA-39 (Cisneros)

16. NJ-07 (Malinowski)

17. VA-02 (Luria)

18. GA-06 (McBath)

19. AZ-01 (O'Halleran)

20. PA-17 (Lamb)

21. NH-01 (Pappas)

22. PA-08 (Cartwright)

23. NH-02 (Kuster)

24. IL-14 (Underwood)

25. NV-03 (Lee)

26. IL-17 (Bustos)

27. MI-11 (Stevens)

28. IL-06 (Casten)

29. NJ-03 (Kim)

30. PA-07 (Wild)

31. IA-03 (Axne)

32. FL-27 (Shalala)

33. NV-04 (Horsford)

For purposes of my prediction (and because I am honor-bound to predict every single election), I will say the Republicans take the top 4 on the list, but it would also be plausible if no Democrats lost. Any Republican victories below # 14 on this list would have to be considered a serious upset. Any Republican victories outside of these 33 races would be wildly unexpected.

Democratic Opportunities

1. NC-02 (Open - Holding)

2. NC-06 (Open - Walker)

3. GA-07 (Open - Woodall)

4. TX-23 (Open - Hurd)

5. IN-05 (Open - Brooks)

6. TX-24 (Open - Marchant)

7. NJ-02 (Van Drew)

8. PA-10 (Perry)

9. MO-02 (Wagner)

10. CA-25 (Garcia)

11. MN-01 (Hagedorn)

12. AZ-06 (Schweikert)

13. OH-01 (Chabot)

14. MI-03 (Open - Amash)

15. TX-22 (Open - Olson)

16. VA-05 (Open - Riggleman)

17. NE-02 (Bacon)

18. NY-24 (Katko)

19. CO-03 (Open - Tipton)

20. TX-21 (Roy)

21. NY-02 (Open - King)

22. TX-03 (Taylor)

23. MT-AL (Open - Gianforte)

24. TX-10 (McCaul)

25. NY-01 (Zeldin)

26. PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)

27. IL-13 (Davis)

28. NC-11 (Open - Meadows)

29. NC-08 (Hudson)

30. AR-02 (Hill)

31. AK-AL (Young)

32. TX-25 (Williams)

33. FL-15 (Open - Spano)

34. WA-03 (Herrera Beutler)

35. NC-09 (Bishop)

36. OH-12 (Balderson)

37. FL-16 (Buchanan)

38. MI-06 (Upton)

39. CA-04 (McClintock)

40. TX-06 (Wright)

41. TX-31 (Carter)

While I am drawing the line at 19 Democratic pick-ups, really nothing would surprise me either way for the seats in the 13-28 range. After # 28, any Democratic wins would be real upsets and portend a very good night for Team Blue. The opposite is true if Republicans are holding more than a few seats above # 12. And as with the Republican list, if there's a pick-up for either side that's not even among those listed here, well, that would be a huge shock.

I do feel as though there will be some moderate surprises on the House side given the general turbulence of this pandemic election and changes in the electorate (due, e.g., to mail-in voting), so the margin of error on these is greater than usual.

Potential 2020 Candidates (with poll)

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Thursday November 10, 2016 · 2:16 PM PST

2016/11/10 · 14:16

Too soon, I know. But I’m curious what people’s thoughts are on who should run for president in 2020. I offer 9 candidates below and then a poll. Please vote for someone and if you choose “someone else,” please tell us whom in the comments.

As an initial matter, I’m not listing Michelle Obama (who has said she doesn’t want to run for office) or Bernie Sanders (given his age in 4 years). Please don’t complain to me! Also, because I was limited in the number of options I can put in the poll, I should add that I can also imagine Montana Gov. Steve Bullock running. I am including Mark Cuban as a candidate only because: a) I wanted a non-traditional candidate option; and b) he probably has the ambition.

In alphabetical order:

Cory Booker, New Jersey senator. Pros: charisma, talented pol. Con: connections to financial industry.

Sherrod Brown, Ohio senator. Pros: union ties, important state. Con: has to get through the 2018 election first.

Mark Cuban, billionaire. Pros: Voters like a businessman. Cons: lack of experience, discipline.

Kirsten Gillibrand, New York senator. Pros: hard-working, media-savvy. Cons: we may want a candidate who comes from west of the Hudson.

John Hickenlooper, Colorado governor. Pros: businessman back story, successful gov. Con: quirky.

Tim Kaine, Virginia senator. Pros: name recognition, swing state. Con: introduction to America was awkward VP debate.

Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota senator. Pros: charisma, Midwestern. Con: lack of name ID.

Mark Warner, Virginia senator. Pros: businessman back story, swing state. Con: may be too conservative for primary electorate.

Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts senator. Pros: passionate national following, populist appeal. Cons: Will be tagged as “Massachusetts liberal,” age.

Poll

951 votes Show Results

Who is your realistic first choice to run for president in 2020?

951 votes Vote Now!

Who is your realistic first choice to run for president in 2020?

Cory Booker

89 votes

Sherrod Brown

393 votes

Mark Cuban

27 votes

Kirsten Gillibrand

32 votes

John Hickenlooper

45 votes

Tim Kaine

11 votes

Amy Klobuchar

25 votes

Mark Warner

62 votes

Elizabeth Warren

162 votes

Someone Else (Please explain in comments)

105 votes

House and Senate Predictions

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Sunday November 06, 2016 · 5:20 PM PST

2016/11/06 · 17:20

Here are my rankings for the House and Senate elections. I have Dems picking up a net of 18 seats in the House (+20, -2) and picking up 5 in the Senate. Comments and alternate opinions welcome.

HOUSE

Republican House Seats Democrats Will Win (in order)

1. FL-10 (Open) — Done.

2. VA-04 (Open) — Done.

3. FL-13 (Jolly) — Charlie Crist will be an unusual 1st term congressman.

4. NH-01 (Guinta) — The 3rd party candidate adds a wrinkle here, but Guinta is too damaged.

5. TX-23 (Hurd) — Hispanic turnout should take care of this one.

6. NV-04 (Hardy) — Early votes should have this in the bag.

7. IL-10 (Dold) — Hard to see a Republican winning this district in a prez year.

8. NV-03 (Open) — In Ralston I trust.

9. MN-02 (Open) — We’re not going to run away with this district, but it should be a win.

10. NJ-05 (Garrett) — That “Congressman from Alabama” tag really stung in NJ.

11. FL-07 (Mica) — Unprepared.

12. CA-49 (Issa) — Applegate is the best example of a candidate coming out of literally nowhere to win this year.

13. CA-10 (Denham) — Thank you Donald Trump. Hispanics have moved this seat way up the list.

14. VA-10 (Comstock) — Comstock’s a good candidate, but she’s running into a strong headwind here.

15. ME-02 (Poliquin) — I think Cain runs ahead of Hillary here.

16. CA-25 (Knight) — The California wipeout continues.

17. NY-19 (Open) — Don’t have much to say that hasn’t already been said about this one.

18. NY-22 (Open) — Three-way race is difficult to predict. Myers can win over 2 R’s with about 40-45%.

19. IN-09 (Open) — The Republicans’ panic over this seat tells me they’re losing.

20. CA-21 (Valadao) — If Hispanics turn out here like they’re turning out in FL, AZ, and TX, it’s over.

The Next Tier (I’m predicting Republicans win these)

21. MI-01 (Open) — Dems have the better candidate, but this will be a fairly comfortable Trump district.

22. MI-07 (Walberg) — Would have loved to have seen a poll here.

23. IA-01 (Blum) — A disappointment.

24. FL-26 (Curbelo) — Sadly slipping down the list. Rs seem confident here.

25. PA-08 (Open) — Need Hillary to pull our candidate across.

26. CO-06 (Coffman) — Coffman may have done enough to distance himself from Trump.

27. KS-03 (Yoder) — After Kansas failed us in 2014, I’m reluctant to bet on a win here.

28. IA-03 (Young) — Trump will under-perform in the Des Moines area, giving Mowrer an outside shot.

29. PA-16 (Open) — Gerrymandered by the Republicans, but Trump will not win this district — and it’s an open seat, so … there’s a shot.

30. MN-03 (Paulsen) — 2 very good candidates; only one can win.

31. CO-03 (Tipton) — Counting on Hispanic turnout and a decently-sized HRC victory here.

32. MI-08 (Bishop) — Shkreli has done an amazing job to make this close, but it’s tough for a 1st time candidate to run a winning campaign against a veteran pol in a few months. If we hold the Republican pick-ups to 2 seats (FL-02 and FL-18), this would be the 218th seat.

33. AK-AL (Young) — Anything can happen in this race.

34. NY-01 (Zeldin) — Have never seen a good poll here.

35. VA-05 (Open) — We have the better candidate, but this is a difficult district once you leave Charlottesville.

36. IN-02 (Walorski) — Gregg and Bayh should both win this district. Walorski’s fear of debates looks weird, but I have no idea if people there are following it.

37. WI-08 (Open) — We have a great candidate, but Trump is polling well in NE Wisconsin.

38. IL-12 (Bost) — Late money coming in here indicates there’s a chance.

39. MT-AL (Zinke) — Tester wants this one bad.

40. NY-24 (Katko) — Please don’t tell me this guy is going to be like the Republican congressmen in New Jersey who have lifetime seats.

41. UT-04 (Love) — McMullin voters show up and vote for Love.

42. AZ-02 (McSally) — McSally is quite formidable, but the prez campaign should help us a bit.

43. NY-23 (Reed) — We’ve got a good candidate, but upstate NY is not great for us this year.

44. NC-13 (Open) — Dems’ ground game in NC will make this relatively close.

45. NY-21 (Stefanik) — Hard to see how we could ever win when a Green candidate is going to take high single digits.

46. PA-07 (Meehan) — Comes down to ticket-splitting.

47. CA-39 (Royce) — This will be a curious one to watch. The Dem has practically no money.

48. PA-06 (Costello) — See PA-07.

49. MI-06 (Upton) — Would need a big Michigan win for Hillary for this seat to come into play because that would mean Republicans are staying home.

50. KY-06 (Barr) — Conway beat Bevin in this district, but it’s been so quiet …

51. WV-02 (Mooney) — We needed to win this in 2014. The Dem could well win this district in the governor’s race.

52. LA-04 (Open) — A 35% African-American district and 1 wealthy Dem candidate. Our guy can get to 45%, but 50.1%?

53. WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) — There’s an anti-establishment mood afoot out there.

54. FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen) — Presumably, Cuban Republicans will split their tickets and stick with Ileana. Hillary wins this district by at least 10%.

55. NM-02 (Pearce) — Would need massive Hispanic turnout.

56. NJ-07 (Lance) — There’s been one intriguing poll. If it wasn’t a push poll, this is a long shot to watch.

57. NC-09 (Pittenger) — Pittenger is not well-liked and is under investigation. If our organization is miles ahead of Republicans in NC, this could get a little close.

Long shots: MI-11, NJ-03, NY-02, NC-08, SC-05, WA-03, WA-08, WI-07.

Democratic Seats Republicans Will Win (in order)

1. FL-02 (Open) — Redistricting

2. FL-18 (Open) — Not trending well here. I think Republican gains are limited to these 2 seats.

Where Republicans Come Up Short

3. MN-08 (Nolan) — Hard to predict. One would think if he could survive 2014 against the same opponent …

4. CA-07 (Bera) — Probably OK this year. Maybe not in 2018.

5. NE-02 (Ashford) — Same as Bera (for different reasons).

6. CA-24 (Open) — Calling a town in your district an “armpit” is not a good idea, so this will be relatively close.

7. NY-03 (Open) — Thanks, Steve, for retiring in a prez year.

8. AZ-01 (Open) — Republicans do not have a good candidate, thankfully.

9. MD-06 (Delaney) — He spends money like he might be in trouble.

10. NY-25 (Slaughter) — She barely won in 2014 against the same opponent and Trump will do relatively well in upstate NY.

SENATE

Senate Seats Democrats Will Pick Up (in order — while keeping Nevada)

1. IL (Kirk) — Landslide alert.

2. WI (Johnson) — 5-7% win.

3. PA (Toomey) — Looking like a 5 point win.

4. MO (Blunt) — It’s close, but I don’t think it’s a nail-biter. Republicans are already blaming Blunt and that says a lot.

5. NH (Ayotte) — Hassan hasn’t put this away like I expected by now.

Where Democrats Come Up Short

6. NC (Burr) — Our organization gives me confidence, but I think the negative ads have taken their toll on Ross.

7. IN (Open) — Hard to predict. Bayh should win 99% of Hillary voters and then needs 10% of Trump voters. The Trump/Bayh voter is 65+ years of age and I don’t think there are enough of them.

8. FL (Rubio) — I hope we don’t regret this in 2020.

9. LA (Open) — Only listed here because we will come about 4% short of getting 2 Dems in the runoff. And we won’t be within 4% of winning any other state.

10. AZ (McCain) — I think his margin will be in the 8% range.

11. GA (Isakson)

12. OH (Portman)

13. IA (Grassley)

14. KY (Paul)

Early 2016 Veepstakes Analysis

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Monday January 18, 2016 · 3:59 PM PST

2016/01/18 · 15:59

It’s very early, but I wanted to put some thoughts in writing about who may emerge as the vice-presidential nominees of both parties and see what others are thinking. Obviously, much depends on who the presidential nominees will be, but the Democratic bench is relatively short and will look much the same for either Sanders or Clinton (except for the fact that Sanders may choose a woman, while Clinton would likely not).

One other ground rule I used: because control of the Senate will be close in this year’s election, I did not include any senator who is running for re-election in 2016 or whose party does not control the appointment process for a successor. Thus, for the Democrats, Bennet, Booker, Brown, Heinrich, Nelson & Warren (among others) were not included. For the Republicans, Ayotte, Capito, Gardner, Portman & Toomey (among others) were not included. Comments welcome! Including anyone I missed.

For the Democrats

1. Tim Kaine (VA). Pros: Swing state, good political skills & personal story, broadly acceptable to all parts of the party, fluent Spanish speaker. Cons: Not incredibly exciting.

2. Deval Patrick (MA). Pros: Helps boost African-American turnout; compelling speaker & personal story; he may help excite liberals if Clinton is the nominee. Cons: Not from a swing state, would be criticized in general election as a Massachusetts liberal.

3. John Hickenlooper (CO). Pros: Swing state, good political skills, beer. Cons: Can he follow directions when it’s not his campaign to run?

4. Julian Castro (TX). Pros: Hispanic, young, above average speaker & personal story. Cons: inexperienced, not a swing state, presence may make immigration the dominant issue of the election (for good or for bad).

5. Tom Wolf (PA). Pro: Governor of a large swing-ish state, businessman. Con: inexperienced.

6. Tom Vilsack (IA). Pros: Swing state, close friend of Hillary for decades. Con: Not exciting.

7. Martin O’Malley (MD). Pros: Now has something of a national profile; presumably has been somewhat vetted as a presidential candidate; liberal track record. Cons: Has not run a successful presidential campaign; not a swing state; will be criticized for Baltimore record.

8. Ken Salazar (CO). Pros: Swing state, of Hispanic heritage. Cons: not exciting; what has he been up to the last few years? (seriously, I don’t know.)

9. Chris Murphy (CT). Pros: Youthful, compelling on gun control. Cons: inexperienced on national stage; not a swing state.

10. Jon Tester (MT). Pros: Would provide a unique balance to Hillary if she is nominee, appeal to white men and rural Americans, good political skills. Cons: Untested, not a swing state.

Others to consider if Sanders is the nominee: Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Jack Reed, Mark Warner, someone else with unique military or foreign policy pedigree.

Others to consider if Clinton is the nominee: Al Franken.

For the Republicans

1. John Kasich (OH). Pros: Could put Ohio in the (R) column; moderate appeal. Cons: can be a loose cannon, Lehman Brothers, his record can be picked apart in a general.

2. Nikki Haley (SC). Pros: female, recipient of positive national press in the last several months, can put a “kinder, gentler” face on Republican nominee. Cons: can’t run with Trump, has made enemies in SC Republican Party, not a swing state.

3. Marco Rubio (FL). Pros: From huge swing state, national profile, youthful, well practiced politician. Cons: personal finances, problems with Republican base on immigration.

4. Brian Sandoval (NV). Pros: Hispanic, swing state governor, could balance a very conservative presidential nominee. Cons: record will cause problems with Republican base, untested.

5. Scott Walker (WI). Pros: Won tough campaigns in a blue-ish state, national profile, will excite conservatives. Cons: Ran a poor presidential campaign, will not excite anyone other than conservatives, John Doe investigation.

6. Marsha Blackburn (TN). Pros: Female, has demonstrated good political skills on frequent TV appearances. Cons: just a House member, inexperienced, not a swing state.

7. Mary Fallin (OK). Pros: Female governor. Cons: Unknown and untested, not a swing state.

8. Tim Scott (SC). Pros: Would demonstrate diversity. Cons: Unknown, untested, not a swing state.

9. Chris Christie (NJ). Pros: National profile, can play the role of the attack dog, claims to have national security credentials. Cons: Bridge-gate, unpopular at home, not a swing state.

10. Susana Martinez (NM). Pros: Female Hispanic governor of what used to be a swing state. Cons: Recent bizarre episode of calling 911 while drunk probably disqualifies her. Would otherwise be in the top half of this list.

Others they may consider: John Thune, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Tom Cotton.

Ranking the Veep Contenders

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Friday July 04, 2008 · 5:38 PM PDT

2008/07/04 · 17:38

Happy 4th of July, everyone. I took some time to rank some of the main VP contenders in order of their likelihood of being chosen. I tried not to use my personal preferences, but they may have influenced me a little bit. I'm sure there's a lot here that people can quibble with, particularly the ordering and perhaps a few names I left out. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on whom I am undervaluing and whom I should have included.

For Dems, I see the top 5 as: Biden, Bayh, Sebelius, Strickland, & Reed, but I think there's a big gap between #2 and #3. For the Republicans, it's a little tougher since I don't follow them as closely, but I have Thune, Sanford, Pawlenty, Romney, Hutchison.

More commentary after the jump:

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Monday February 04, 2008 · 10:12 PM PST

2008/02/04 · 22:12

Inspired by poblano, I have done a state-by-state prediction for Super Tuesday, without the cool graphics.

As we've seen, the polls are all over the place, so I tried to look at poll averages, campaign visits, & the amount of TV advertising. I list below the states I expect to vote for either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama in order of margin of victory, along with the total of pledged delegates to be allocated, the projected popular vote margin of victory, and then the projected gain in delegates. This assumes perfect proportionality (i.e., you win 55% of the vote and 55% of the delegates). Of course, that's not going to happen perfectly in any state, but when you add all of the projected delegate gains together, you come up with an approximation of who will come out ahead in delegates tomorrow night.

If there's a wave, some of the close states could break one way or the other. And no, I'm not predicting American Samoa.

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Monday November 15, 2004 · 3:35 PM PST

2004/11/15 · 15:35

In the last two days there have been over 1000 comments in 3 main page threads on the topic of why Howard Dean should be the DNC chair and why Tom Vilsack shouldn't. All of this energy (much of it quite rancorous, if not libelous) is, in my opinion, premature & misdirected. Many kossacks are gearing up to fight a war that may not even occur.

I think much of the talk is premature because it seems most of our information is based on rumor. No one, including Dean, Kerry, Rosenberg, or Vilsack, has said anything on record that I've seen about who should be DNC chair. Suddenly, Bob Novak is considered in these parts to be the voice of truth and blogs that put out rumors without any supporting facts are taken as gospel. At the end of the day, if anyone was offering odds, I think the safest bet is that neither Dean nor Vilsack will end up as chair. (More in the extended entry). Read More

Newsweek: B 50, K 45

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Saturday September 11, 2004 · 9:36 AM PDT

2004/09/11 · 09:36

A week after Newsweek's poll showed Bush over Kerry 54-43, their 2-way race is now 50-45 (among registered voters; no data given for likely voters).

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040911/nysa006_1.html

The bad news is that Kerry trails in the swing states 53-41, but the sample size on that is so small (apparently 270 respondents), that we shouldn't get too concerned. The data lists 391 respondents as being Republicans, 300 as being Democrats, and 270 as being Independents. That's probably a mistake as those same numbers are listed for respondents from Republican states, Democratic states, and swing states. By percentage, that would be 40.7% are from Republican states, 31.2% are from Democratic states, and 28.1% from swing states.

Arnold made it up

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Tuesday August 31, 2004 · 9:39 PM PDT

2004/08/31 · 21:39

Arnold talked in his speech about how he decided to become a Republican because he saw Humphrey debate Nixon and he decided Humphrey espoused socialism and Arnold identified with Nixon. Well guess what? Nixon and Humphrey never debated. Arnold invented that memory.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/debatingourdestiny/dod/1960-broadcast.html

(scroll to the bottom of the page)

Why Pittsburgh for the announcement?

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Monday July 05, 2004 · 11:13 AM PDT

2004/07/05 · 11:13

I happen to believe that much of what we're hearing about the VP selection process over the last few days has been carefully designed to mislead, so take this "clue" with a grain of salt.

According to CNN's Morning Grind today, "The site and date of Kerry's announcement are locked in. Where will Kerry clasp hands and raise arms with his guy? We received this tea leaf from a Kerry advance aide: 'I wish I was going to Pittsburgh.'"

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/05/mon/index.html

Of course, it could be yet another head fake from the Kerry team, but why would the announcement be in Pittsburgh of all places? Unless ... Pittsburgh native Tom Vilsack is the choice.

What about the dkos policy?

PBS

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday February 11, 2004 · 1:49 AM PST

2004/02/11 · 01:49

Less than two months ago, a policy was established that since it looked like Dean or Clark would be the nominees, we should not tolerate anti-Dean or anti-Clark smears because they would only harm our common cause.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/18/174110/74

It so happens that now it appears Kerry will be the nominee, yet the diaries, and I'm sorry to say, the main page are all-too-often filled with poorly substantiated (to put it kindly) anti-Kerry smears. I'd suggest that people read the link above and reconsider the usefulness of being so blindly ABK as to repeatedly use this forum to tear him down.

New Arizona Poll

PBS

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday January 24, 2004 · 3:19 PM PST

2004/01/24 · 15:19

A poll released in tomorrow's Arizona Republic will show:

Kerry 19
Clark 17
Dean 14
Edwards 9
Lieberman 6
Undecided 34

MOE: +/- 4.3%

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040124/lasa002_1.html

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Arnold made it up

Why Pittsburgh for the announcement?

What about the dkos policy?

New Arizona Poll