If Trump resigns, What Happens to His Campaign Contributions?

PES

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Wednesday September 25, 2019 · 10:49 PM PDT

2019/09/25 · 22:49

The odds are still against Trump pulling a Nixon and resigning before the whole impeachment process plays. If he does though, or is removed from office by the Senate, what happens to the Trump 2020 campaign funds? I believe that any candidate for office, win or loses,. retains control of the campaign funds. In some cases these excess funds have been used to pay off debts of other candidates or retained for future campaigns. In Trump’s case though, he would most likely simply divert it into his own coffers. Depending on when/if he bows out, that could be as much as a couple of hundred million dollars. Is this his final grift? Somebody please tell me he would be bared from doing this.

Buzzfeed Story - Two Days (or 46 Years) Later

PES

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Saturday January 19, 2019 · 7:17 PM PST

2019/01/19 · 19:17

The Buzzfeed story about Trump supposedly ordering Cohen to lie to Congress certainly put us all on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride Thursday and Friday. First it appeared that Buzzfeed had contacted people who had definitive proof of said lying. Would the House have to impeach Trump before or after April 1st. Then the OSC threw a bit of cold water on the fun by issuing an unusual statement questioning elements of the reporting. All of a sudden, Mueller is now the President’s lackey, the story itself was a hoax in the first place put out by the Illuminati to discredit the investigation, you name it.

All I can say is chill out. There are two reporters who have been through this before. Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein. I would love to hear their take on the events of the last two days.

IMHO the Buzzfeed story is accurate. I believe Buzzfeed still stands by their reporting. There are other factors in play, which will hopefully be revealed at a later date.

Where do we stand right now? Go to Youtube and pull up “All The President’s Men (1976)...Ending Scene” (Sorry I don’t know how to link directly). It says it all. Have faith in the Fourth Estate.

Innumeracy and the Pundit Class

PES

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Tuesday November 06, 2012 · 8:13 AM PST

2012/11/06 · 08:13

I caught a brief segment of "Morning Joe" this morning. The big talking point was Michael Gerson's editorial in the Washington Post blasting Nate Silver for daring to take an analytical approach to predicting elections. Like good little bobble heads, the Morning Joe Zoo Crew all nodded their heads up and down agreeing with Michael's mocking of Nate's use of significant figures, averages, etc. The big take away was no mere "spreadsheet" could replace their accumulated wisdom, because they "know" how elections really work.

Well, that's really swell, but obviously they know absolutely nothing about math. For example, Nate's significant figure listing are based upon the values provided in his input data. And no idiots, Nate is not speaking with absolute certitude, he is merely presenting probability outcomes. Finally, if analyzing poll data is meaningless, which is about the level their arguments were sinking too, why do people take polls in the first place?

My soap box has been that this election is the war between the pundits and the modellers. If Nate and Sam are proven correct tonight, the "pundits" better think about enrolling in a remedial math course. Or maybe take off their shoes next time they try to tally electoral college votes.

Could Forecasting Models Identify Election Fraud?

PES

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Wednesday October 31, 2012 · 11:30 AM PDT

2012/10/31 · 11:30

Given past history, it is always in the back of my mind that there could be some kind of Republican hanky-panky with the election results. My question is, could the forecasting models I live and die by these days (538, Princeton, etc) be used to identify possible voter fraud? Remember that Nate's daily number of EVs (276, 299, etc.) is actually an averaged result of thousand of discrete simulation runs. These runs in turn are based upon certain relationships between the voting trends of different states (I think). Something like if Obama is up by 3 points in Colorado, it is not likely that he would down by 14 points in New Mexico.

The point being, the election outcome on November 6 will actually be one of Nate's runs. Somebody should be able to go back into the model, identify the run and determine what the probability of that outcome is of occurring. If it's down in the general mush where the majority of the outcomes occur so be up. But suppose it is a low probability anomalous event (0.01% chance or whatever your trigger point is). Can that alone be used to justify an investigation of potential irregularities? Any thoughts on this out there?

Is Romney living "The Game"?

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Thursday September 27, 2012 · 10:50 PM PDT

2012/09/27 · 22:50

Criterion came out with a Blu-Ray edition of "The Game" last week. For those who might not remember, "The Game" was David Fincher's 1997 movie about a multi-millionaire, Nicholas Van Orton,(played by Michael Douglas) who becomes enmeshed in an elaborate game/conspiracy which tears down the foundations of his existence. Without going into too many details, what is ultimately going down is an intervention. to save Van Orton's soul. It is a wonderful movie and with the exception of "L.A. Confidential", I felt it was the best movie of that year (f#ck "Titanic", L.A. Confidential was robbed at the Oscars).

Anyway, in watching it again, I was struck with the notion that there are parallels between it and what Romney is currently undergoing. Think of it. Both Van Orton and Romney were / are investment bankers. Both are ruthless business men who work for the bottom-line with little regard how it impacts others. Both have limited interactions with others beyond business dealings. And, just as Van Orton was caught up in a ever-widening conspiracy designed to frustrate him and keep him off balance, so has Romney been trapped in his Hindenburg of a campaign.

So, could it be that this entire election is simply a "Game", paid for by the Romney family in an effort to break through Mitt's shell and re-humanize him. We are all just playing a role in his rehabilitation. That he will have his "fall" on the night of November 6th and after hitting bottom will pull himself up and end up being a better person? Probably not, but we can hope.

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