While we didn’t get as much as we had hoped for in Georgia in 2018, we still made great strides. Our statewide candidates all did really well, each getting the highest percentages we’ve seen for statewide Democrats in nearly two decades. We also made huge progress in the General Assembly. This was our best election in a long time, certainly since Republicans broke through in the early part of the last decade. We still haven’t gotten to where we were immediately after the Bush-era realignment, but we’re close. And we have a lot more juicy opportunities to work towards.
Here is a rundown of the elections for State Senate and State House in Georgia.
State Senate
- Result: 2 GAIN | 0 LOSS | +2 NET
In the Senate, not only did we prevent the Republicans from retaking a supermajority, but we pushed them back two. We’re now at 21 Democrats to 35 Republicans, meaning we need a net gain of eight more to retake the State Senate.
Republicans only contested four of our seats, three of which were like 75% Hillary seats. In our only real defense, incumbent Jen Jordan easily held onto SD-06, a seat that we had picked up in a special election last year, winning by almost 17 points, improving on Hillary’s margin by three points.
In SD-40, self-professed progressive Sally Harrell unseated incumbent Fran Millar, infamous for complaining that early voting increases black turnout. Harrell won by about 9.5 points, slightly bettering Hillary’s haul in the district.
Neighboring SD-48 also flipped. There, Zahra Karinshak, attorney, veteran, second-generation Iranian-American, and former Barnes Administration official (who helped take down the Confederate flag in Georgia) flipped the seat left open when David Shafer ran unsuccessfully for Lt. Governor. Karinshak won by seven, improving on Hillary’s totals by three points.
Perhaps one of the best examples of how screwed Republicans are about to be in Gwinnett County is SD-09. Our candidate, Cheryle Moses (who had previously organized a Come Meet a Black Person event), raised no money from contributions and only a had $3,300 loan. She went up against an incumbent with over $250K in fundraising. This is also a district that combines the Republican areas near the DeKalb border with other Republican areas in the Eastern part of the county. Even then, Moses held Martin to a less than 52%, improving on Hillary’s total by almost five points.
Another case of “Give our damn candidates some resources!” is SD-56. Incumbent Republican John Albers, Chief Deputy Whip, outraised Ellyn Jeager 10 to 1. Jeager held Albers to 52.49, improving on Hillary’s total by about 1.5 points and on the previous nominee’s total by more than seven. With neighboring SD-06, SD-40, and SD-48 all going Democratic despite being drawn to be Republican seats, this has got to be a target.
The march continues in SD-17. It went uncontested in 2014 and was a more than 19 point Republican win in 2016. This year, it was a less than nine point Republican win. As Democrats continue to consolidate Henry, Newton, and Rockdale Counties (we broke through in the Rockdale portion finally), it’s going to be harder and harder for Republicans to hold onto this area. Hillary only got 40.82% here. Democrat Phyllis Hatcher got 45.53%.
In SD-32, now-incumbent Republican Kay Kirkpatrick faced off against Democrat Christine Triebsch in a rematch of their special election fight from last year. We actually fell off a tad bit here, but still kept it at 42.63%, a two point improvement over Hillary. If we can continue to get educated suburbanites on our side, we can continue to improve here.
SD-37 contains the most Republican parts of Cobb County, the more rural portions in the Northwestern parts, containing the only precincts in Cobb where Abrams got less than 40%. Even then, our candidate broke 41%. As Kennesaw State (my alma mater) continues to grow and the I-75/US-41 Corridor becomes more and more friendly to us, we should look even better here long-term. Our guy gained more than 3.5 points over Hillary.
Similarly, we finally broke 40% in SD-45 against an entrenched incumbent in the most Republican part of Gwinnett County. We did so with a Some Dudette who refused to even post a donate link on her website, who gave a lot of praise to her opponent, and who talked an awful lot about cannabis. Even this area of Gwinnett is moving in our direction; we gained five points over Hillary.
State House
- Result: 14 GAIN | 3 LOSS | +11 NET
The Georgia House now stands at 75 Democrats to 105 Republicans. We need a net gain of 16 to retake the House in 2020.
Sam Park easily won re-election in HD-101, beating former State Rep. Valerie Clark by more than 17 points in a rematch from 2016 where Park unseated Clark. Park, BTW, is the first openly gay man elected to the General Assembly though he is not the first to serve. This does make him the first openly gay man to be reelected to the Georgia House.
Incumbent Mack Jackson won HD-128 by 14 in his first contested election under these lines. His win overperformed Hillary by three. Democratic falloff up-ballot in this rural, black belt district is a little concerning, but I don’t think we’re in huge danger yet.
In HD-132, House Democratic Leader Bob Trammell held on with 52.20% of the vote, his lowest haul since being elected in 2014. Democratic performance has generally been declining in this fairly rural district; Trammell has never hit 54%. Trump won here 50.36% to 47.30%. With redistricting likely to make it even redder, Trammell probably wants to start thinking about running for higher office.
In HD-37, Democrats had to scramble after their chosen nominee, Lucy McBath, decided to run (successfully) for Congress instead. In the end, it turned out alright with Mary Frances Williams (daughter of former Marietta Mayor and State Rep Howard Atherton) unseating Sam Teasley, a gun nut, author of a “religious freedom” bill, and an anti-tax/small government zealot. Williams improved on Hillary’s plurality, earning a slight majority.
Democrats breathed another sigh of relief in HD-40, left open when Republican incumbent Rich Golick, chair of the House Judiciary Non-Civil Committee, retired. This is the district where someone named Sandra Bullock won the Democratic primary before dropping out after presumably asking herself, “What the holy fuck am I doing?” In the end, new nominee Erick Allen won by over nine, a sweet victory given our past inability to unseat Golick.
In HD-48, incumbent Republican Betty Price, wife of former HHS Secretary and Congressman Tom Price, narrowly lost her seat to Mary Robichaux. Like her husband, Price has shown herself to be a homophobe, suggesting that HIV patients be quarantined, so flipping this one is a good pickup. Robichaux improved over Hillary by more than four points.
We didn’t even field a candidate in HD-50 in 2016. This year, we won it as an open seat after its incumbent, Brad Raffensperger, called it quits to run for Secretary of State. Professor and German immigrant Angelika Kausche improved over Hillary by three points, turning a narrow plurality loss into a majority win.
It was a similar story in neighboring HD-51, where incumbent Republican Wendell Willard, Chair of the Judiciary Committee, retired. Democratic nominee Josh McLaurin had to go through a lot to win here including a residency challenge and libelous mailers. In the end, he won this Hillary district, improving on Clinton’s total by a point and a half.
Incumbency nearly saved Beth Baskin in HD-54. Nearly. She still lost by three. Now even Buckhead has a Democratic representative.
There was a time when Dunwoody was a Republican stronghold, a red holdout in otherwise dark blue DeKalb County. Those days are gone. Dunwoody (HD-79) now has a Democratic state representative in the form of attorney Michael Wilensky, who improved over Hillary by more than a point en route to an almost eight point victory in this open seat.
In neighboring HD-80, Democrat Matthew Wilson unseated State Rep. Meagan Hanson. The two parties have been trading this seat (or similar ones) back and forth for a while now. Hopefully we can hold it down this time (it’s a 54.21% Hillary district, so we should be in good shape). Between Hanson’s loss and Democratic pickups in HD-79 and SD-40, this means there are no Republican legislators left in DeKalb County.
Deputy Republican Whip Scott Hilton went down in HD-95. Incoming Rep. Beth Moore improved on HIllary’s total by 1.5 points.
HD-102 saw something you don’t see a lot: a white pastor running as a liberal Democrat in the Deep South and touting the endorsement of Georgia Equality, a gay rights group. Democrat Gregg Kennard bested Republican Paula Hastings in this Gwinnett district, which was left open when Republican incumbent Buzz Brockway ran unsuccessfully for Secretary of State. Kennard ran nearly six points ahead of Hillary Clinton.
HD-105 was the Battle of the Donnas. Democrat Donna McLeod defeated Republican Donna Sheldon, who used to represent neighboring HD-104 before running unsuccessfully for GA-10. Sheldon opted to run for this seat left open by the retirement of Republican Joyce Chandler instead of running against her Republican successor in HD-104 (more about him later). Democrats had been targeting this seat for a while, getting tantalizingly close. McLeod nearly won it in 2016, coming within 0.9%. This year, the dam broke. McLeod won by over 16, improving on Hillary by more than six.
In HD-107, Republican David Casas decided to get out while the getting was good in this Hillary 53.78% district. Democrat Shelly Hutchinson, a pastor and small business owner, easily dispatched her Republican opponent, Janet Mihoci (whose Twitter feed as of now has retweeted conspiracy theories as its first and third stories), winning by 17.5 points.
Nearby in HD-108, Republican incumbent Clay Cox’s second stint in the Georgia House comes to an end. Cox was bested by Jasmine Clark, who has a Ph.D. in Microbiology. Clark was endorsed by Georgia Equality, Georgia’s WIN List (the Georgia equivalent of EMILY’s List), and Democracy for America. Clark took a 48.10% Hillary plurality and turned it into a 50.68% majority.
HD-111 was Stockbridge’s revenge. Incumbent Republican Geoff Cauble was part of the effort to split off the comparatively whiter, more affluent part of Stockbridge to create Eagle’s Landing, running roughshod over the wishes of Stockbridge, despite representing part of Stockbridge. Not only did the vote to create Eagle’s Landing fail, but Cauble ended up getting his ass handed to him by progressive Democrat El-Madhi Holly. Holly routed Cauble by over 13, improving six and half points over Hillary’s narrow majority in the district.
HD-117 and HD-119 were essentially the same story. Both are Athens-area districts we picked up in a special election last year. Republicans had cracked Athens-Clarke County in an effort to limit the area to one blue district, hoping to drown out Athens with red surrounding areas. It backfired last year but reverted back this year with Republicans netting 53.55% and 52.78% respectively. Still, neither district is hopelessly Republican (Hillary got 46.06% and 43.90%), 2020 should see even better turnout in Clarke, and Oconee County is getting more Democratic as well.
In HD-138, Mike Cheokas (who looks like a younger David Axelrod) is proving to be like a bad rash. Cheokas used to represent this area as a Democrat before switching parties in 2010. Since then, we’ve gone after him hard but kept coming up short. We knocked him off in 2016 but saw our incumbent retire after just one term. Cheokas made his comeback this year, winning by just under four against Bardin Hooks, son of former State Senator George Hooks. This is a swingy district, voting for Obama twice before being won by Trump. Cheokas has never gotten more than 53% since his switch. Blacks and Hispanics make up about 47% of the district, so it should remain on Democrats’ radar.
HD-04, centered on Dalton, is a demographic time bomb for Republicans. It’s already at a slight majority-minority and 43% Hispanic. Unfortunately, more work needs to be done. Like actually running a Democrat this time and registering and turning out the Hispanic population. At this point, it’s only 33.09% Hillary.
HD-29 is an interesting case. Democrat Maria Palacios was disqualified for not being a citizen of the state for at least two years. Left-leaning independent Nancy Steadman still got north of 32% here, just shy of Hillary’s total. In statewide races in Georgia, we’ve seen Libertarians get high percentages when there’s no Democrat running (like 33% or so), indicating a lot of Democrats are willing to protest vote for third party and independent candidates but that a large chunk still doesn’t. So the anti-Republican vote probably would have done even better had a Democrat run. Hopefully Palacios runs again. Not only does she have an impressive background but having a Hispanic run in this majority-minority (only 41% non-Hispanic white), plurality Hispanic district centered on Gainesville can’t hurt.
In HD-34, Democrat Matt Southwell got 42.33%, an improvement of about 2.5 points over Hillary. This district is home to Kennesaw, infamous for requiring citizens to own guns. But that ordinance was passed in the 80s. Now, this area is home to a major university and ground zero for realignment of highly educated whites with a whopping 43.6% of residents having at least a bachelor’s degree.
Just north in HD-35, incumbent Republican Ed Setzler (known for his quixotic crusade against forced microchipping) won by under five points. Democratic performance improved by five points over Hillary’s haul. With the Acworth area trending our way, this should be a target in the future.
Democrats showed strength in three East Cobb seats: HD-43, HD-44, and HD-45, each of which went uncontested in 2016. The closest was the 43rd, where incumbent Sharon Cooper only won by three. Dem Luisa Wakeman improved two points over Hillary. The 44th saw a five point Dem surge with the Democrat getting almost 45%. HD-45 saw a rare regression from HIllary’s total (less than a point), but we still got almost 41% there, so it should remain at least on the periphery of our targets.
In HD-49, we held incumbent Chuck Martin to just over 54% of the vote and improved over Hillary’s total by a point.
HD-52 was a disappointment. Hillary nearly got a majority here in 2016. However, incumbent Deborah Silcox was able to hang onto this Sandy Springs district, winning by 4.5. Still with suburban seats like this falling into our hands, this one will always be a target.
Democrat Aisha Yaqoob, a second-generation Pakistani-American, had a strong showing in the open HD-97, garnering 44.14% of the vote, almost three points better than Hillary Clinton. This is a highly educated (49.6% with a bachelor’s or better), diverse (only 53% non-Hispanic white) district, so we should continue to see growth in this area.
HD-104 had gone uncontested by Democrats since it was first put in place in 2012. Hillary only got 40.21% here in 2016. This year, Democrat Andrea Stephenson got 46.63% against Chuck Efstration, Governor Deal’s Floor Leader and Vice-Chair of the House Appropriations Committee.
We failed to field a candidate in HD-106 against Brett Harrell despite Hillary getting a plurality here and Abrams no doubt doing even better in this Gwinnett seat. That cannot happen again.
Family time during the holidays might be easier this year for incumbent Republican Dale Rutledge of HD-109. At least this time, he didn’t have his own aunt run against him. Unfortunately (and probably more important) for Rutledge, he’s seeing his district fall out from under him. He bested his Aunt Jane by over 15 points (over 4,000 votes) in 2016. This year, he held on by just 800 votes or three points. He won all three of the counties in the district in 2016 but only one this year. Judging from her impressive list of endorsements, Democrat Regina Lewis-Ward sounds like a great progressive. I hope she runs again.
I wish we had run someone in HD-130 against David Knight. Hillary only got 38.50% here in 2016 but with two of the counties in the district (Henry and Spalding) moving in our direction, we probably would have gotten a respectable showing.
Same goes for HD-145. Hillary got 45.24% here, it’s 41% black, and is centered around a college town (Milledgeville).
In HD-147, Democrat Fenika Miller got 45.85% of the vote against right winger Heath Clark (whose website evidently hasn’t been updated since 2014). With Houston County inching our way, this Warner Robins-area seat should continue to get attention from our side.
Seriously, how the fuck did we not win HD-151?! It’s 56% black, voted 52.05% for Hillary, and the incumbent Republican, House State Properties Chairman Gerald Greene, was shot while behind a porn store (on his way to a liquor store) while carrying storm relief money. Greene still won by seven over nurse Joyce Barlow. At least we’re making forward progress against him, though. This was his lowest haul in this district.
While Democratic surge has mostly been in Metro Atlanta, HD-164 is an exception. In this Savannah-area district, Democrat Alicia Scott gained five and a half points over Hillary Clinton and improved seven points over the 2016 nominee on her way to holding incumbent Ron Stephens to a mere 52.46%.
We made some nice progress in HD-179 with Democrat Julie Jordan getting a respectable 42.23% in a district Hillary got only 39.66%.
Data Sources:
Census Reporter (link)
Daily Kos’ Presidential Vote By District (link)
Georgia Ethics Commission Campaign Reports (link)
Georgia Secretary of State Election Returns (link)
District Maps:
State House (includes metro areas on separate pages)
State Senate (statewide)
State Senate (Metro Atlanta)
