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Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:14 AM PST

ARG Daily Guesses

by AEDem2004

So, I made some (not-so) educated guesses about the first few dailies of the ARG Tracking Poll for Dean and Kerry. Based on that, I figured out the dailies.

Please note that these are not official. They're just based off what I judged to be a reasonable assumption of initial numbers, and calculations based on those.

That said, here goes:

ARG (My Daily Prediction) (3 Day ARG)

 12-26 (36)(-)   (20)(-)
 12-27 (38)(-)   (19)(-)
 12-28 (37)(37)  (18)(19)
 12-29 (36)(37)  (16)(18)
 12-30 (38)(37)  (17)(17)
 12-31 (37)(37)  (15)(16)
 01-01 (36)(37)  (13)(15)
 01-02 (41)(38)  (14)(14)
 01-03 (40)(39)  (15)(14)
 01-04 (36)(39)  (13)(14)
 01-05 (35)(37)  (14)(14)
 01-06 (37)(36)  (12)(13)
 01-07 (33)(35)  (10)(12)
 01-08 (35)(35)  (11)(11)
 01-09 (37)(35)  (09)(10)
 01-10 (33)(35)  (10)(10)
 01-11 (38)(36)  (11)(10)
 01-12 (31)(34)  (12)(11)
 01-13 (27)(32)  (16)(13)
 01-14 (29)(29)  (17)(15)
 01-15 (28)(28)  (15)(16)
 01-16 (27)(28)  (22)(18)
 01-17 (29)(28)  (20)(19)
 01-18 (28)(28)  (15)(19)
 01-19 (27)(28)  (25)(20)
 01-20 (23)(26)  (32)(24)
 01-21 (16)(22)  (24)(27)
 01-22 (15)(18)  (37)(31)
 01-23 (14)(15)  (41)(34)
 01-24 (19)(16)  (36)(38)
 01-25 (27)(25)  (37)(38)
 01-26 (29)(25)  (32)(35)

So I predict Dean's final sample is 29%, a rebound of 15% from his low point only three days earlier. Kerry's predicted final sample is 32%, down 9% from his high point just three days ago. Interesting- Dean's lowest day was Kerry's highest. This suggests to me that Dean's support abandoned him for not only undecided, but Kerry as well. However, it appears a significant portion has returned to him.  

As someone else mentioned, ARG has painted the bleakest picture for Dean as of late. And even they now recognize his incredible, late surge. Granted, these numbers are only predictions, but... they're close ball park figures. In addition, the final predicted samples (K 32 D 29) are with in the MoE of 4%.

Based on the trends of the last three days, I predict a nailbiter (big suprise), with the slimmest margin of victory for Howard Dean.



Mon Jan 26, 2004 at 03:16 AM PST

Economic Models

by AEDem2004

Anyone want to briefly explain to me the Keynesian and Invisible Hand Econ models and give me some arguements about why they don't work?

Heh. I'm debating some friend of a friend about the Bush economy, and it appears he's an Econ major. Needless to say, I'm not econ major. Nor have a I taken an economy class.


...We are right, though! :D


Thu Jan 22, 2004 at 11:51 PM PST

Who won the Debate? Poll

by AEDem2004

Just a poll. So take it.

Who won the debate?

12%15 votes
45%56 votes
20%25 votes
17%22 votes
0%0 votes
4%5 votes
0%1 votes

| 124 votes | Vote | Results


Thu Jan 22, 2004 at 01:54 AM PST

A Hearfelt Plea

by AEDem2004

Only a few moments ago did I find out that the arguably most ardent Dean supporter in this community, GrassyTroll, has apparently jumped ship. I just sent her an email, and I thought I should post it here as well.

While I respect the supporters of other candidates, I ask that you observe respect right now. If you can't say something nice, please, just let things be. There will be a time for politics, but right now there needs to be a time of healing. And you should care more about your fellow Kossacks and their emotional pain than posting "<<Candidate>> Rules Dean SUCKS!"

Obviously, I can't make you be nice.  But I will get down on my knees and beg this of you, for one diary only.

Continue Reading
Well, well, well. The "positive" Iowa candidates are proven to be negative, hypocritical assholes. First, we have evidence of the Kerry Campaign and it's push polling, and now proof of Sunshine Edward's dirty precinct tactics.

This contrasted to a new and improved positive Dean gives him a resounding victory in six days in New Hampshire. Hypocrisy is not a way to win a campaign. Good job John the E and K, you've made our job that much easier.


Will these tactics destroy their Iowa Mo?

11%10 votes
1%1 votes
0%0 votes
11%10 votes
4%4 votes
0%0 votes
31%28 votes
41%37 votes

| 90 votes | Vote | Results


Mon Jan 19, 2004 at 02:19 AM PST

Twas the Night Before Caucus...

by AEDem2004

Note: Dean bias. If you can't deal with that in a humorous manner, please don't read any further.
Continue Reading

Sun Jan 18, 2004 at 02:20 PM PST

Dean playing with the polls?

by AEDem2004

Over in the Iowa Predictions Thread, Tunesmith stated:

I honestly think the Dean campaign is telling their 1's not to answer polls.

That got me thinking. I think this is entirely conceivable, and might actually be happening. Here's why:

This so called "tightening" of the race will provided a huge momentum boost to whoever wins it, IMHO. The fact that candidate x pulled it out over these other three in a close race shows how strong that candidate is; we'll hear this blah blah from the media leading up to NH.

We also have no doubt about the dedication to Dean that most of his supporters have, as well as the reverence for Joe Trippi. If Storm HQ asked supporters not to answer polls in an purposeful effort to tighten polls, they probably would listen. Not only would it allow for the aforementioned momentum boost, it would also encourage soft Dean support to go to caucus because it's so close. In essence, it'll help GOTV.

And finally, if Dean does indeed pull it out in this manner, but wins by upwards of 7 points, the press will declare a huge victory for him, I think. And I think this is possible. If this playing around with the polls is actually occuring, combined with the idea that Dean's support is underrepresented due to it's relative inexperience in politics (the "new people in the process" thing), it's entirely possible Dean will have a huge victory on Monday night.

As Jumbo states in his sig, "Joe Trippi is a Jedi." The force is strong with him, no doubt, but is he masterfully playing this race? Me thinks that yes, he is.



AEDem2004's Scenario is...

6%8 votes
45%58 votes
44%56 votes
3%5 votes

| 127 votes | Vote | Results

I really am in the mood to write a diary with meaningful content and insightful analysis. Which is why I choose this topic.

Who's the biggest right wing whore?

The Nominees

Katherine Harris: How could we conduct a Right-Wing-Whore-Poll (RWWP) without including the offspring of Satan? Katherine is the slutty bitch who stole the election from the American people to please her hedonistic masters.

Ann Coulter: Joining Harris as a frontrunner in the RWWP race, we have the queen of hypocritical rich bitch conservatism. This beloved broad, also known as Annthrax or Coultergeist, or simply fucking bitch, rants and whines and bitches about nothing. Her favorite line of attack is against liberal elitists. Of course, Ann grew up in a rich Connecticut area and spent her summer in Europe. But of course, since she's Republican, she's obviously not elitist.

Laura Ingraham: Like Coulter, bitches about "liberl elitists." Wrote a book called "Shut up and Sing" refering to Barbara Steisand. Apparently, Streisand doesn't have a right to advocate her beliefs (like Ingraham does).

Tucker Carlson: The closest to a right-wing feminazi you can find in a human being that's male. Co-host of CNN's Crossfire with fellow nominee Bob Novak.

Bob Novak: Ah, good ole Bob. Eats from the trough of Rove. Outed a CIA agent. Like all the other nominees, just spews random shit all the time. Hypocrite. Politically Blind.

Bill O'Reilly: 'Nuff said. Shut up.

Michael Savage: Told a caller who said he had nasty teeth to "get AIDs and die." Epitomy of conservatism's anti-gay hatred.

Rush Limbaugh: We all know about Rush. The fact he's on drug explains alot.

Jerry Falwell: Claims Homosexuals are responsible for 9-11.

Tom Delay: His crimes are too evil to even write in this entry.

As you can see, the nominees have all worked very hard, and have impressive resumees. So now it's time to vote. Who is the biggest right wing whore? We'll send the winner an email letting him or her know that he/she has won the first annual DailyKos Right Wing Whore Award!


Who's the Biggest Right Wing Whore?

6%6 votes
32%28 votes
3%3 votes
0%0 votes
6%6 votes
10%9 votes
1%1 votes
6%6 votes
1%1 votes
23%20 votes
3%3 votes
3%3 votes

| 86 votes | Vote | Results


Thu Jan 15, 2004 at 03:01 PM PST

Re: Candidate Schedules

by AEDem2004

Someone mentioned earlier something about Dean only having two events today.

From CNN

Iowa -- Dean starts the first full day of his "Caucus for Change" bus tour with a pancake breakfast in Fort Dodge at 10 a.m. He then heads to Carroll for an event at 2 p.m. and drops by Creston at 7:15 p.m. and Chariton at 9:30 p.m.

South Carolina and Iowa -- Clark holds a "Conversations with Clark" session on school equity funding in Dillon at 10:30 a.m. and then travels to New Hampshire for an air safety event at Wiggins Airport in Manchester at 3:45 p.m. He holds a "Conversations with Clark" session in Merrimack at 7:30 p.m.

Iowa -- Edwards launches his "Five Days to Change America" tour at a rally with Polk County Democrats in Des Moines at 1 p.m. At 3 p.m. he has an event with Mahaska County Democrats in Oskaloosa and at 4:15 pm. he campaigns in Ottumwa. He meets with Henry County Democrats in Mount Pleasant at 6 p.m. and ends the day at an event in Burlington at 9 p.m.  

Iowa -- Gephardt begins a series of "Countdown to Victory" events in Mason City at 9 a.m. and then holds an event with Hancock County Democrats in Britt at 1 p.m. At 2:30 p.m. he attends an event in Algona with Kossuth County Democrats and at 4 p.m. he meets with Pala Alto County Democrats in Emmetsburg. He participates in an Alliance for Economic Justice rally with Teamsters President James Hoffa at 7 p.m. in Marshalltown and ends the day with a "Countdown to Victory" event in Iowa Falls at 9 p.m.

Iowa -- Kerry attends a pancake breakfast with Pottawattamie County Democrats in Council Bluffs at 8:30 a.m., then flies by helicopter to Carroll for an event with Carroll County Democrats at 10:45 a.m. At 12:15 p.m. he attends a rally with Woodbury County Democrats in Sioux City and then travels to Adel for an event with Dallas County Democrats at 2:55 p.m. He heads to Fort Dodge for a town hall meeting with Webster County Democrats at 4:30 p.m., and at 6 p.m. he holds a rally in Webster City and ends the day at a rally in Mason City at 8:45 p.m.


Wed Jan 14, 2004 at 09:09 PM PST

Iowa-NH-Feb3 Predictions

by AEDem2004

Iowa: Dean squeaks out with a small win

NH: Dean takes IA Mo and regains his earlier leads

Feb 3rd:
Arizona: Dean
New Mexico: Dean
South Carolina: Dean
Missouri: Dean (assuming Gep drops after IA)
Oklahoma: Clark
North Dakota: Dean
Delaware: Dean

Dean wins 8 of first 9. Dean has huge Mo during most of February, all the way up until Super Tuesday. Clark, having only victory against Dean in the first 9 gets the Anti-Dean spot. Gep drops after IA, Edwards drops after SC. Kerry will stay in until Wisconsin, and then drop out unless he puts together a huge string of victories (very unlikely). Lieberman stays in until he's trounced in Connecticut, coming in 3rd to both Dean and Clark.

I think if Dean gets on a roll, there is no stoping. Dean wraps up the nomination March 2nd, asks Clark to be the VP, and Clark accepts.



Who will win Iowa?

67%44 votes
16%11 votes
10%7 votes
4%3 votes

| 65 votes | Vote | Results


Sun Jan 11, 2004 at 07:24 PM PST

Joe Trippi

by AEDem2004

Joe Trippi is a Jedi.  This is a widely accepted fact.  But which one? Take the poll...

Jedi Trippi is most like...

20%10 votes
56%28 votes
16%8 votes
6%3 votes
2%1 votes

| 50 votes | Vote | Results


Sun Jan 11, 2004 at 06:13 PM PST

Football :)

by AEDem2004

Note: I'm an unapologetic Packers fan.



Who wins today?

46%7 votes
53%8 votes

| 15 votes | Vote | Results

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