Obama leads Gallup & Rasmussen for the first time

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Wednesday February 13, 2008 · 11:31 AM PST

2008/02/13 · 11:31

Obama edged ahead of Clinton in both the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls today and shows serious national MO. Perhaps a consensus is emerging?

This is the first time he has led in either poll. Of course, the only thing that matters now is the remaining states but national numbers give us an idea if people are starting to decide this is over and Obama has won.

Rasmussen
Today 2/12 2/11 one week change
Obama 46 42 41 +4
Clinton 41 44 46 -5

Gallup
Today 2/11 2/10 one week change
Obama 45 44 44 +5
Clinton 44 45 46 -7

New ARG: FL, OH, PA looking good

asearchforreason

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Tuesday October 26, 2004 · 7:26 AM PDT

2004/10/26 · 07:26

I hope this has not been diaried yet. New ARG polls in FL, OH, & PA are looking good for Kerry.

Florida 10/25 (10/5)
Kerry 49 (47)
Bush 46 (45)

Ohio 10/25 (10/6)
Kerry 49 (48)
Bush 47 (47)

Pennsylvania 10/25 (10/6)
Kerry 50 (48)
Bush 47 (46)
Read More

New Ohio Poll out today

asearchforreason

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Tuesday September 21, 2004 · 8:55 AM PDT

2004/09/21 · 08:55

The new Ohio Poll conducted by the University of Cincinnati shows some pretty bad trends for the Kerry camp.

9/12-9/18 (August results in parentheses)
456 likely voters, MOE: 4.6%

Kerry/Edwards 43 (48)
Bush/Cheney 54 (46)
Nader/Camejo 2 (1)
Other 0 (1)
Undecided 1 (4) Read More

OH: Bush 47, Kerry 41

asearchforreason

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Saturday May 29, 2004 · 8:02 PM PDT

2004/05/29 · 20:02

Some bad news from the Buckeye state. A new poll from Mason-Dixon shows Kerry down.

Bush 47
Kerry 41
Nader 3

1500 registered voters "who plan to vote in November"
MOE: 2.6
May 20-25
No trend lines that I'm aware of

This contradicts the recent Zogby and ARG polls showing Kerry up by a few points. Those polls are a couple of weeks old though. Are we seeing public opinion shift back to pre-Abu Ghraib levels or just a bad sample or methodology?

New PA Poll: Bush/Kerry Tied

asearchforreason

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Tuesday April 27, 2004 · 12:46 PM PDT

2004/04/27 · 12:46

In a new IssuesPA/Pew Poll of adults Kerry and Bush are tied at 42% with Nader getting 5%. With 11% still undecided, Kerry seems in an okay position here. At least 1/4 of Nader voters are going to go for Kerry in the end and undecideds tend to break for the challenger by about 3:1. Of course, I'd like him to be up more, but I think this shows that Bush really doesn't have much support for an incumbent here.

Poll was of 1,001 adults with MOE +- 4%

Campaign to Save the Environment

asearchforreason

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Wednesday April 21, 2004 · 4:57 PM PDT

2004/04/21 · 16:57

Please help me out. I'm sorry to post a question here rather than a diary, but I think a progressive community like this is a good place to ask.

The question is: has anyone here had any interaction with the non-profit group Campaign to Save the Environment? I ask because my girlfriend has gotten a position with them for the summer raising money door to door, but I've heard only bad things about the job.

Anyone have any stories, good or bad? Even 2nd or 3rd hand stories from friends would be helpful. Thanks folks...

ARG Polls NM & NH

asearchforreason

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Friday April 02, 2004 · 4:19 PM PST

2004/04/02 · 16:19

Not terribly good news in either state. Both polled likely voters.

New Mexico
George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 45%
Ralph Nader 3%
Undecided 6%
+- 4%

w/o Nader:
George W. Bush 47%
John Kerry 47%
Undecided 6%

New Hampshire
George W. Bush 48%
John Kerry 43%
Ralph Nader 3%
Undecided 6%
+- 4%

w/o Nader:
George W. Bush 48%
John Kerry 45%
Undecided 7%
Read More

SUSA Polls AZ

asearchforreason

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Saturday March 20, 2004 · 9:58 PM PST

2004/03/20 · 21:58

Doesn't look so good for a pickup right now:

Among Likely Voters
Bush 51
Kerry 42
Other 3
Undecided 4
MOE 4%

No trend lines, although a poll of "registered" voters in mid-Feb. showed
Bush 52
Kerry 44

Edwards Speaks in OH -- Courting Dean supporters?

asearchforreason

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Sunday February 22, 2004 · 5:29 PM PST

2004/02/22 · 17:29

Edwards had a rally today in Columbus on the Ohio State University campus. The showing seemed very strong. I got there late and was told to go outside for the overflow, as the large theater that was being used for overflow had filled up. So I got to watch the speech through an open door on the patio.... Read More

Chandler has a 9% lead in KY

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Community

Friday February 13, 2004 · 2:14 PM PST

2004/02/13 · 14:14

New Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll shows:
Chandler: 49
Kerr: 40
MOE: 4.5% (leaners included)

Apparently it was closer without leaners, however, Chandler's support is more committed to him than Kerr's. He also has a higher favorable rating...

Play Guess the NH Surprise (Poll)

asearchforreason

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Monday January 26, 2004 · 2:05 PM PST

2004/01/26 · 14:05

My first polls, so I hope this works....

We all know there will be at least one major surprise in the NH results. Now to test your predicting skills: What do you think it will be, regardless of what you want it to be?

Thurs Zogby IA Poll - Kerry Leads

asearchforreason

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Thursday January 15, 2004 · 9:47 AM PST

2004/01/15 · 09:47

Already reported several times, but here's the link to Zogby's meager analysis.

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