Fl/MI Worst-case perspective for Obama

bottl4

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Saturday May 17, 2008 · 11:35 PM PDT

2008/05/17 · 23:35

At this point, I think Obama's about 31 superdelegates away from reaching 2025 once the last primaries run on June 3rd. However, as we're all aware, there's still the open issue of how to resolve the Florida and Michigan issue. Without getting into the same old issues of why or why not their delegations should be seated, let's look at what happens if they're seated as-is, with no penalties whatsoever.

First, let me do a little groundwork. I'm pulling the basic numbers for the scenario from Demconwatch - their scenario 5 (http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers.html)
For my delegate estimates for the remaining primaries, I used Slate's delegate calculator (http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/) It's only a rough estimate but that's good enough for these purposes.

I'm going to call a 40 pt victory for Clinton in Kentucky and a 10 pt victory for her in Puerto Rico. For Obama, I'm giving him 10 pt victories in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. I'm also giving Obama the remaining 20 pledged delegates attached to Edwards. I think this is about as big a pro-Clinton spin on the numbers that we're likely to see. So what do we get?

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