Breaking: The Leopards roam free

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Tuesday January 24, 2023 · 11:44 AM PST

2023/01/24 · 11:44

Not just Polish and other third-party ones, but Germany herself will also deliver. Sorry, not yet available in English. My translation of the lede:

After months of debate, Chancellor Scholz has finally found it in himself to deliver main battle tanks to Ukraine. The allies will apparently follow suit as well. From the US, Abrams tanks might come.

It’s clear that Biden’s decision to send the Abrams was what allowed Scholz to do what he must have been wanting to do for months, but refused to do alone. Even if sending the Abrams is probably more symbolic, since as a weapons system they remain somewhat impractical for Ukraine.

Study: strong correlation b/w 'ethnic antagonism' and support for authoritarianism

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Saturday November 21, 2020 · 10:48 AM PST

2020/11/21 · 10:48

It finally all makes sense, though not in a good way:

Most Republicans in a January 2020 survey agreed that “the traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it.” More than 40% agreed that “a time will come when patriotic Americans have to take the law into their own hands.” (In both cases, most of the rest said they were unsure; only one in four or five disagreed.) I use 127 survey items to measure six potential bases of these and other antidemocratic sentiments: partisan affect, enthusiasm for President Trump, political cynicism, economic conservatism, cultural conservatism, and ethnic antagonism. The strongest predictor by far, for the Republican rank-and-file as a whole and for a variety of subgroups defined by education, locale, sex, and political attitudes, is ethnic antagonism—especially concerns about the political power and claims on government resources of immigrants, African-Americans, and Latinos. The corrosive impact of ethnic antagonism on Republicans’ commitment to democracy underlines the significance of ethnic conflict in contemporary US politics.

Emphasis mine. Link to article. My interpretation: White men were just hunky dory with democracy as long as they perceived democracy to work in their favor. Which meant among other things as long as minorities and immigrants were largely shut out from it and women voted for whom they were told to (or so the dudes thought). But now these same White guys have come to view democracy as benefiting women, minorities, and immigrants more than themselves — and so they abandon democracy in droves in favor of something like Trump. (Full disclosure: I’m a White guy, but also an immigrant.)

Implications:

This explains IMO why large numbers of Republicans continued to back Trump through the impeachment. It’s not that they didn’t believe the accusations — it’s that they were quite OK with Trump acting like a two-bit caudillo.
It’s not the case that Trump’s supporters fail to understand that this guy is trying hard to break democracy in this country. On the contrary: they support him because they understand very well what Trump is doing.
Republican politicians are keenly aware that Trump is putting our democracy at risk with his attacks on the election and our democratically elected institutions. The reason they’re not doing anything about it isn’t just that they’re afraid of Trump — it’s that they realize that their base has already lost confidence in democracy and very much want Trump to take a wrecking ball to it.

Caveat: the decline of support for democracy over the last couple of decades is not restricted to the U.S., as data from the World Values Survey shows. So a parsimonious explanation should take into account the possibility that what’s been going on in this country might be just a special case of a global phenomenon.

Most important conclusion: Trump supporters’ loss of faith in democracy and embrace of authoritarianism (not just cultural authoritarianism, but actual political totalitarianism) is endangering us all. How can we share a planet with these yahoos? What can we do about them?

Why the President won (/w 2016 contenders poll)

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Tuesday November 06, 2012 · 10:41 PM PST

2012/11/06 · 22:41

The first African American President of these United States has once again made history tonight. Not just by becoming the first African American President to win reelection, but also by running once again an innovative and trailblazing campaign – one that will hopefully change Democratic playbooks for decades to come. Let me explain below the Fleur de Kos. But first, even though it may be too early to let our guard down, I think we’ve earned ourselves a random, I-sneer-at-your-pedestrian-demands-of-scientificness 2016 contenders poll. And no, for half of these people, I have no evidence whatsoever that they have ever considered running. And I’m leaving out a few folks who I assume/hope have made peace with not running, because tonight is about the future of course (Feinstein, Gore, Warner, ...).

Poll

361 votes Show Results

Your favorite for 2016?

361 votes Vote Now!

Your favorite for 2016?

Joe Biden

21 votes

Julian Castro

19 votes

Hillary Clinton

194 votes

Howard Dean

20 votes

Janet Napolitano

1 vote

Brian Schweitzer

21 votes

Kathleen Selebelius

7 votes

Somebody else/don’t know

62 votes

Pie (d’oh)

16 votes

We can haz cease fire?

brainwave

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Wednesday February 17, 2010 · 4:39 PM PST

2010/02/17 · 16:39

The amount of energy being wasted by Obama loyalists and Obama critics tearing into each other is getting depressing and disheartening. This isn't the primaries or the Great Fraudster Wars of 2004/5 or even that stupid original pie fight - this has a different quality. The two sides seem more or less evenly matched, and there are reasons to think that neither side is going anywhere anytime soon. So if we don't do something, this place is going to become uninhabitable. Analysis and a proposal below the flip.

Poll

69 votes Show Results

Are you ready to take the Disengagement Pledge?

I am an Obama loyalist, and I'm willing to give it a shot. I pledge to indefinitely refrain from confronting Obama critics unless in the utmost need of trolldom.

I am an Obama loyalist. You mean well, but this won't work. Sorry.

I am an Obama loyalist and you are full of sh!t. I will continue to flame firebaggers wherever they show their ugly mugs.

I am an Obama critic, and I'm willing to give it a shot. I pledge to indefinitely refrain from confronting Obama loyalists unless in the utmost need of trolldom.

I am an Obama critic. You mean well, but this won't work. Sorry.

I am an Obama critic and you are full of sh!t. I will continue to flame Obamabots wherever they show their ugly mugs.I am an Obama critic and you are full of sh!t. I will continue to flame Obamabots wherever they show their ugly mugs.

Pie

I stole the missing poll option

69 votes Vote Now!

Are you ready to take the Disengagement Pledge?

I am an Obama loyalist, and I'm willing to give it a shot. I pledge to indefinitely refrain from confronting Obama critics unless in the utmost need of trolldom.

9 votes

I am an Obama loyalist. You mean well, but this won't work. Sorry.

5 votes

I am an Obama loyalist and you are full of sh!t. I will continue to flame firebaggers wherever they show their ugly mugs.

5 votes

I am an Obama critic, and I'm willing to give it a shot. I pledge to indefinitely refrain from confronting Obama loyalists unless in the utmost need of trolldom.

5 votes

I am an Obama critic. You mean well, but this won't work. Sorry.

14 votes

4 votes

Pie

15 votes

I stole the missing poll option

12 votes

POLL: how do you feel about the Senate's "achievement"?

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Saturday December 26, 2009 · 8:38 AM PST

2009/12/26 · 08:38

It seems that the passage of the Senate HCR bill has brought about one of the sharpest turns in the prevailing sentiment expressed in the diaries and comments on dKos I have observed in the five years I've been an active user. This sea change began when news of the White House-orchestrated Lieberman appeasement hit the wires and culminated with the passage of the bill. Prior to this turn, the general mood seemed to be that a bill without a public option or at least medicare buy-ins is unacceptable. Now, those people who voice an opinion mostly pronounce themselves strongly in favor of the Senate bill - without a public option or medicare buy-ins, and even with the provisions added to secure Senator Nelson's vote, which among other things significantly undermine Roe v. Wade. Critics seem to have largely fallen silent - in no small part due to exhaustion, no doubt, but likely also because by voicing their opinion they now run the risk of getting flamed as purity trolls. The Jane Hamsher/FDL brouhaha hasn't helped - it has generated a tremendous pressure on people on the left who don't agree with the FDL tactics to either denounce them or remain silent. So here's a poll, because I'd like to know what the sentiment is really like out there is Kosland. Below the flip a few more thoughts on the apparent shift on the board.

Poll

256 votes Show Results

Your view of the HCR bill that has passed the Senate?

256 votes Vote Now!

Your view of the HCR bill that has passed the Senate?

The greatest social achievement of our time

13 votes

With all its flaws, ... getting this bill would be much, much better than watching health care reform fail

110 votes

Withholding judgment, still waiting to see what comes out of Conference

53 votes

Built on Obama's broken promises

18 votes

A bigger bailout for the insurance industry than AIG ... essentially the collapse of health care reform

61 votes

Yes, we can avoid a brokered convention - and avoid it we must

brainwave

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Thursday February 07, 2008 · 9:57 PM PST

2008/02/07 · 21:57

Until a few short months ago it was the wet dream of virtually every politics junkie - now, as it is becoming more likely by the day to happen this year, the dream is turning into a nightmare. Below the flip: why a brokered convention is becoming increasingly probable; why this is bad news especially for us Obama supporters; and what can be done to avoid it and win outright.

Poll

230 votes Show Results

Can we?

230 votes Vote Now!

Can we?

Yes, we can

130 votes

No, we can't

30 votes

We won't have to

17 votes

Go Hillary!!!

24 votes

Go Magoo!!!

3 votes

Pie

26 votes

POPPING: Huckabee now leads Rasmussen poll

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Wednesday December 05, 2007 · 9:17 AM PST

2007/12/05 · 09:17

With h/t to RobertInWisconsin, Rasmussen's daily Presidential Tracking Poll now has Mike Huackabee at 20% to Giuliani's 17% in the race for the Republican nomination. Choice quotes and comments below the fold.

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Sunday October 14, 2007 · 2:27 PM PDT

2007/10/14 · 14:27

I'll keep this short. Let's suppose Turkey "invades" Iraqi Kurdistan tomorrow. What do you think will happen? If you've recommended this diary or any of a fair number of like minded that have been posted during the last 12-18 months, chances are it's not what you think will happen. I'll explain below the flip.

brainwave

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Monday September 24, 2007 · 9:40 AM PDT

2007/09/24 · 09:40

Seems simple enough. How does your stance on the two most controversial policy issues discussed on dKos, immediate withdrawal from Iraq and impeachment, predict who you support for Prez? Take the damn poll! But first read the damn instructions :-)

Poll

114 votes Show Results

Well???

Clinton supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

Clinton supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

Clinton supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

Clinton supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, conta impeachment

Edwards supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

Edwards supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

Edwards supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

Edwards supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

Gore supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

Gore supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

Gore supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

Gore supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

Obama supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

Obama supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

Obama supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

114 votes Vote Now!

Well???

Clinton supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

5 votes

Clinton supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

3 votes

Clinton supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

3 votes

Clinton supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, conta impeachment

4 votes

Edwards supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

31 votes

Edwards supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

5 votes

Edwards supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

2 votes

Edwards supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

2 votes

Gore supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

30 votes

Gore supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

3 votes

Gore supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

3 votes

Gore supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

2 votes

Obama supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, pro impeachment

12 votes

Obama supporter, pro immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

6 votes

Obama supporter, contra immediate withdrawal, contra impeachment

3 votes

New NYT/CBS NEWS Poll: Gore rising (w/ POLL)

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Monday March 12, 2007 · 8:27 PM PDT

2007/03/12 · 20:27

I can’t believe I’m posting a frikking horse race diary! What is the world coming to? Anyway, so the NYT and CBS NEWS have a massive (pdf!!!) new poll out. There’s all sorts of stuff; some good (Dems liked lots better than Repubs), some not so hot (Bush’s approval numbers ticking up 5 points in the last two weeks, WTF?). What I thought interesting: favorability ratings for some of the declared and undeclared presidential contenders of both parties. Pretty good news for us Gore supporters: Al now has the second-highest favs among the Dems, losing only narrowly to Obama, and the latter of course has many more DK responses. He’s also beating the ‘pubs except for Giuliani who has higher net-favs.

Poll

185 votes Show Results

If Al Gore were to declare his candidacy, would you

185 votes Vote Now!

If Al Gore were to declare his candidacy, would you

immediately donate $20.08 to his campaign

19 votes

immediately donate more than $20.08 to his campaign

46 votes

consider donating closer to or during the primaries

14 votes

immediately donate $20.08 to a different campaign

5 votes

pledge to volunteer on his campaign

12 votes

donate and volunteer

60 votes

get a stiff drink

24 votes

other (explain in comments)

5 votes

MexiKos 9/17/06: Counter-Presidency edition (w/ POLL)!

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Sunday September 17, 2006 · 7:33 AM PDT

2006/09/17 · 07:33

What do you do when you believe you have been robbed of victory in a presidential election, and have exhausted all avenues of legal recourse, only to see most of your evidence ignored and your demand for a full recount turned down? We know what Al Gore did in 2000. We also know what Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas did in 1988 - the same as Gore in 2000. Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is taking a different route. He isn't giving up, he isn't going away. Yesterday, the National Democratic Convention (CDN) organized by his supporters elected him Mexico's legitimate president. Read More

Mexico News Roundup 9/7/06: NYT election post-mortem

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Thursday September 07, 2006 · 6:28 AM PDT

2006/09/07 · 06:28

Those who who have been following the Mexico News Roundups here on dKos will be used to the steady drumbeat of major U.S. newspaper editorials calling on the candidate of the center-left Por El Bien de Todos ("for the good of all") coalition, Adrés Manuel López Obrador (or AMLO), to suck it up and go away already. It's good to know, I think, that there are still real journalists out there who at least don't presume to know or understand more about the situation on the ground than those silly locals. Follow me beyond the flip to a surprisingly even-handed post-mortem analysis of the electoral process by the NYT's James McKinley Jr. Read More

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Breaking: The Leopards roam free

Study: strong correlation b/w 'ethnic antagonism' and support for authoritarianism

Why the President won (/w 2016 contenders poll)

We can haz cease fire?

POLL: how do you feel about the Senate's "achievement"?

Yes, we can avoid a brokered convention - and avoid it we must

POPPING: Huckabee now leads Rasmussen poll

Alarmism and the situation on the Turkish-Iraqi border

POLL: hot button issues and candidate support

New NYT/CBS NEWS Poll: Gore rising (w/ POLL)

MexiKos 9/17/06: Counter-Presidency edition (w/ POLL)!

Mexico News Roundup 9/7/06: NYT election post-mortem