Skip to main content


Mon Jun 20, 2011 at 11:53 AM PDT

Scoring Eurobonds

by davidshor

A quick look at who wins and who loses if Eurozone Sovereign were consolidated and paid collectively.

Continue Reading

Stochastic Democracy aggregates polls, makes graphs, and does some regressions to get an idea about the Democrat's chances in 2012.

Continue Reading

Tue May 17, 2011 at 04:56 AM PDT

Miami Special Election

by davidshor

Early voting has started for the Miami mayoral special election, and I can't find any information to help me know who to vote for. Who's progressive? Who's viable? Will there be a run-off? What about the amendments?

Discuss

Tue Apr 26, 2011 at 02:59 PM PDT

Canadian Federal Election Forecasts

by davidshor


Forecasts for the May 2nd Canadian Federal Election. Click here to see a larger version.


Probability Distributions for each Party's Seat Count

Stochastic Democracy's Bayesian Canadian Election Model forecasts a 30% chance of a Conservative majority, and forecasts that the NDP are now just as likely as the Liberals to form the second largest party in Parliament.

Continue Reading

Maps and Graphs looking at yesterday's Mayoral Recall on a precinct level. Cross-posted at Stochastic Democracy.

Continue Reading

Stochastic Democracy compiles and aggregates all available Senate and Gubernatorial polls to estimate Democratic Performance under varying turnout scenarios.

Continue Reading

Stochastic Democracy compiles all available 2012 matchup polls and uses them to forecast electoral breakdowns for Obama vs Palin, Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney.

Continue Reading

Stochastic Democracy, in collaboration Professor Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, have launched a new Election Forecasting System for House, Senate, and Generic tracking.

 title=

See more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

Continue Reading

Mon Jul 05, 2010 at 03:39 PM PDT

Preliminary House/Senate Forecasts

by davidshor

Stochastic Democracy is launching an Forecasting System tomorrow, featuring district level House, Senate, and National level races via a Bayesian Multi-level model that takes into account Pollster Bias (House Effects) and Pollster inaccuracy (PIE).

 title=
Congressional Districts, colored by estimated Democratic Vote

 title=
Histogram of the number of Democratic Seats in November

In the meantime, top-level results and preliminary graphs are available below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.Com for feedback purposes.

Continue Reading

Stochastic Democracy looks at Micheal Weissman's Statistical Critique of Former Kos-Pollster R2K (Research-2000) and finds them it somewhat questionable and not terribly convinving.

See more below the fold

Continue Reading

Sun Jun 20, 2010 at 05:29 PM PDT

How to Detect a Bad Pollster

by davidshor

Stochastc Democracy explains the difference between House Effects(Bias) and Design Effects(PIE), problems with Nate Silver's Pollster Ratings system, and a new and more accurate way to estimate both in real-time.

One of the key findings is that in election horse-race polls, PIE does not differ significantly among Pollsters, with House effects(Bias) being more pronounced then previously thought.

 title=
Estimated Pollster Introduced Error vs Number of Polls in Obama Approval Database

See graphs, House-Effect Tables, and more, below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

Continue Reading

Wed May 05, 2010 at 08:05 AM PDT

UK Election Round-Up

by davidshor

A collection of all the main forecasts for the UK election today, as well as discussion about the merits of each model.

Read more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

Continue Reading
You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.

RSS

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site