A quick look at who wins and who loses if Eurozone Sovereign were consolidated and paid collectively.
Stochastic Democracy aggregates polls, makes graphs, and does some regressions to get an idea about the Democrat's chances in 2012.
Early voting has started for the Miami mayoral special election, and I can't find any information to help me know who to vote for. Who's progressive? Who's viable? Will there be a run-off? What about the amendments?
Forecasts for the May 2nd Canadian Federal Election. Click here to see a larger version.
Stochastic Democracy's Bayesian Canadian Election Model forecasts a 30% chance of a Conservative majority, and forecasts that the NDP are now just as likely as the Liberals to form the second largest party in Parliament.
Maps and Graphs looking at yesterday's Mayoral Recall on a precinct level. Cross-posted at Stochastic Democracy.
Stochastic Democracy compiles and aggregates all available Senate and Gubernatorial polls to estimate Democratic Performance under varying turnout scenarios.
Stochastic Democracy compiles all available 2012 matchup polls and uses them to forecast electoral breakdowns for Obama vs Palin, Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney.
Stochastic Democracy, in collaboration Professor Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, have launched a new Election Forecasting System for House, Senate, and Generic tracking.
See more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com
Stochastic Democracy is launching an Forecasting System tomorrow, featuring district level House, Senate, and National level races via a Bayesian Multi-level model that takes into account Pollster Bias (House Effects) and Pollster inaccuracy (PIE).
Congressional Districts, colored by estimated Democratic Vote
Histogram of the number of Democratic Seats in November
In the meantime, top-level results and preliminary graphs are available below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.Com for feedback purposes.
Stochastic Democracy looks at Micheal Weissman's Statistical Critique of Former Kos-Pollster R2K (Research-2000) and finds them it somewhat questionable and not terribly convinving.
See more below the fold
Stochastc Democracy explains the difference between House Effects(Bias) and Design Effects(PIE), problems with Nate Silver's Pollster Ratings system, and a new and more accurate way to estimate both in real-time.
One of the key findings is that in election horse-race polls, PIE does not differ significantly among Pollsters, with House effects(Bias) being more pronounced then previously thought.
Estimated Pollster Introduced Error vs Number of Polls in Obama Approval Database
See graphs, House-Effect Tables, and more, below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com
A collection of all the main forecasts for the UK election today, as well as discussion about the merits of each model.
Read more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com
Recommended by davidshor
- ***crossposted from StochasticDemocracy *** With all ridings now fully reporting, there's now enough data to pick apart our model and see how it did. ...20 comments 11 Recs
- In a diary I wrote a few days ago ( In defense of standardized tests I noted that, to measure change in pupil ability, frequent ...18 comments 11 Recs
- So, there we are finally. It's been a quite interesting cycle, and the first results are about to come in. Let's begin with a link to Swing State Project's compilation of poll closing times:42 comments 11 Recs
- By now hundreds of statistically minded people are poring over Iranian election data. Here's part 1 of my analysis, which is also cross-posted at the ...10 comments 3 Recs
- (cross posted at VoteForAmerica.net ) I changed my methodology a ...19 comments 12 Recs
- In the current Economist, there's a story called [eating carbon http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12592256] about peridotite, which usually occurs only in the mantle of the ...79 comments 48 Recs
- Hi, everyone. One of my favourite parts of any election night's coverage on CNN is 'the big board', specifically when John King goes through a race's results and boldly proclaims "This is where the ...39 comments 27 Recs
- No current results.